Do kickers matter?

No. 

End of article. 

That was my initial thought when I first considered that question. Of course, here at Fantasy Alarm we aren’t going to provide you with a lazy response like that.  Plus, that answer was just a thought in my head with no research backing it, so now let’s do a deep dive into research and see if that statement is actually true. 

ADP vs. Results

If we look at the top kickers drafted last season, we see the top three kickers went noticeable earlier than the rest. Those three, depending on where you look, went in some kind of order of Justin Tucker , Greg Zuerlein , and Stephen Gostkowski . After that, depending on where you look, it would be Wil Lutz , Matt Bryant , Chris Boswell , Jake Elliott , Harrison Butker , Matt Prater , and Adam Vinatieri . So for this exercise we will look at how those 10 kickers fared and if drafting one of those 10 really made a difference for your fantasy team. Of those ten, only four – Tucker two, Butker three, Lutz five, and Gostkowski eight – finished in the top-10 of scoring among kickers last season. That means that the number one scoring kicker and six of the top-10 scoring kickers were not drafted among the top-10 at the position last season. In fact, the number one scoring kicker (Ka'imi Fairbairn) went undrafted in the large majority of leagues last season as he did not even have an ADP in the top-20 at the position! 

Point Differentials

The difference between the number scoring kicker (158.0 points) and number twelve scoring kicker (124.0 points) was only 34 points, meaning he was good for about two more points per week on average. The difference between the number three kicker (141.0 points) and number ten kicker (130.0 points) was only 11 points, meaning less than one point per week.  In fact, in each of the past three seasons the difference between the number three and number ten kicker was less than one point per week. If you use that same model for any other position, you’re looking at a much larger gap. At quarterback the difference between number one (417.08 points) and number twelve (283.12) was nearly 134 points and the difference between number three (341.86) and number nine (299.42) was over 42 points. At running back, the number one back had 385.80 points, compared to the number twelve who had 230.20. The difference between the number three and number nine was over 130 points. You get the picture. 

Variance

More so than other positions, kickers also have a large amount of variance from year-to-year. Over the past three seasons only Justin Tucker has been a top-seven scoring kicker in all three years and no kicker has been in the top-three at the position all three years. For other positions variance usually only takes place because of injuries, but kickers do not suffer injuries on a regular basis, meaning their variance is more random than it is anything else. Sure, Tucker is a pretty safe bet each year, but he doesn’t really outscore (by that big of a margin) any of the other kickers than you can grab later in drafts or off free agency. With so much variance at the position, there really isn’t any reason to put a lot of weight into drafting one of the higher ranked kickers a round or two earlier than the other kickers. 

Team Offense Correlation to Kickers

One thing that I know people love to assume is that an elite offense will produce a good fantasy kicker. Is there any truth behind that thought process though? Among the top-five scoring kickers, two of them played for a top-five scoring offense. Among the top-10 scoring offenses, four of them produced a top-10 scoring kicker. So is there a correlation? Not really. In fact, the number one scoring kicker did not play for a top-10 scoring offense and neither did the second highest scoring kicker. As it turns out, getting an increased amount of extra point opportunities does not make a kicker more fantasy relevant as the majority of the points that a kicker accrues is through field goals. 

Conclusion

Kickers don’t matter if you play with standard settings (or anything close to standard). If your league still uses kickers, always make sure to wait until the last round to select your kicker.