Dynasty Leagues are some of the most fun formats in fantasy in part because they most closely resemble the actual NFL. Unlike in seasonal leagues, where every team starts off trying their hardest to win that season, teams in dynasty leagues have different priorities. There are teams with aging rosters trying to win now, young teams looking towards the future and teams in the middle trying to pull a Danny Ainge and contend now without surrendering many future assets. You have entrenched owners who make the Chicago Bears’ ownership look competent and new owners looking to clean up the mess left by the previous regime.
With all of the similarities to the NFL, it seems reasonable to think there are lessons to be learned from the NFL that can be applied to dynasty leagues. With that in mind, here are five lessons from the NFL that will help you win your dynasty league.
Be realistic about your chances of winning.
This is a common mistake for NFL general managers and dynasty league players alike. A great example of this is from the 2018 NFL free agency, when the Miami Dolphins threw gave Albert Wilson $14.45 million guaranteed to be their fourth wide receiver. This move was a mistake for a number of reasons, but mostly because Miami is not going to make the playoffs in 2018.
If Miami played in a weak division, had a franchise quarterback or had made the playoffs the year before, signing Wilson makes some sense. For a team that is essentially rebuilding/waiting for Tom Brady to retire, throwing guaranteed money at a veteran who isn’t very good is just silly.
Dynasty players make similar mistakes all of the time. Bad teams that should be planning for the future will make win-now moves while good teams fall in love with young players and draft picks when they should use those assets to try to put their teams over the top. If you can’t be objective about where your team stands, ask a friend, or leave a question in the Fantasy Alarm Chat.
Old players are still valuable.
Someone tell this to the Seattle Seahawks. They gave up on the Legion of Boom with very little to show for it. Maybe they are only bad for one year and are able to get a high draft pick and turn it into a contender, but it seems more likely they are wasting a year of Russell Wilson ’s prime when their division looks pretty winnable (unless you want to crown the Rams already).
Fantasy Owners are no different. They drop or practically give away old players who can help their team right now for young guys who aren’t particularly likely to ever be good. A similar phenomenon happens in first-year drafts in dynasty leagues. Everyone wants to build a dynasty, but flags fly forever. If Larry Fitzgerald helps your team win a title in 2018, I promise you won’t care when he retires in the offseason.
In a lot of ways, this just comes down to being realistic about young players. Much like the Bills overestimated Nathan Peterman ’s ability to replace TyRod Taylor last season, fantasy players often overestimate the potential of young players, or the likelihood of a young player actually fulfilling their potential. Unless you are giving up on the present altogether to focus on the future, you should be wary of passing on someone you know is good for someone who could be good next year.
Don’t overpay for a young quarterback.
The Redskins traded a king’s ransom to move up in the draft for Robert Griffin III, and he wasn’t even the best quarterback they selected in that draft. The Bears overpaid for two quarterbacks in the same offseason, outbidding themselves for Mike Glennon and giving away draft picks to move up one spot so they could draft Mitchell Trubisky . The Bills reached for Josh Allen and watched the Cardinals draft a better quarterback three picks later. These kinds of mistakes can set back NFL teams and fantasy teams alike.
On the flip side, surprise quarterbacks pop up every year, with Case Keenum joining a long line including Dak Prescott , Kirk Cousins , Russell Wilson , Colin Kaepernick (for a while) and so on. Those players were just as cheap in dynasty leagues as they were in the NFL.
In fantasy especially, you can find quarterbacks who are good enough in any given year without having to take the risk on a young guy with a first-round pedigree. Sure it would be nice to own Mitchell Trubisky or Sam Darnold if they turn into perennial fantasy studs, but the odds of that are probably smaller than you think. Perennial stud QBs are extremely rare, and do you really think one of those guys is the next Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers ? By all means, take a chance on a young quarterback, especially if you already have a solid option at the position. Just don’t give up a ton to do it.
As a corollary to this point, keep in mind that running quarterbacks tend to either stop running or get hurt as they age. Michael Vick is the only quarterback to rush for more than 550 yards in a season in his thirties, and he played 13 games or fewer in each of those seasons. Cam Newton appears to be an exception, and for good reason: most running quarterbacks aren’t 6’5”, 245 lbs. History has shown the running dries up for most quarterbacks as they age. Keep that in mind before you start getting visions of Lamar Jackson , Marcus Mariota , Dak Prescott or Deshaun Watson carrying your fantasy team for the next decade. I actually like all four of those quarterbacks in the near future, but if they pop this season or next, I would try to sell high.
Running backs are interchangeable.
There are obvious exceptions, but for the most part, there is a good reason most NFL teams decline to draft running backs early or reward them with long-term contracts with a lot of guaranteed money. Running backs just don’t last year-to-year, and even the ones who do will most likely turn into a pumpkin when they turn 30.
Remember when everyone thought Isaiah Crowell was a second round running back because he had 4.8 yards per carry (YPC) in 2016? Then he had 4.1 YPC in 2017 and everyone has decided he is garbage. Now he has been replaced by Nick Chubb (and Carlos Hyde ), and Chubb looks like the next big thing. In fact, I like Chubb a lot for fantasy, but he already has an extensive injury history at a position where turnover is high. I’m not going to invest a ton in Chubb, and again, if he does break out, I will probably try to sell high.
On the other hand, the best dynasty investments tend to be receivers and tight ends. Players at both positions can play at an elite level well into their thirties, which almost never happens for running backs. Young, elite running backs are obviously incredibly valuable, but they have a shorter shelf life than their counterparts at other positions.
Life comes at you fast.
Why is Le’Veon Bell playing on the franchise tag again? Why don’t NFL teams sign their best players to long-term guaranteed contracts? Things change quickly in the NFL, and if you think you know who will be good five or even three years from now, you may be mistaken. At this time a year ago, do you think DeMarco Murray ’s dynasty owners were worried he would retire? The point is, while you obviously have to manage a dynasty team with one eye on the present and one on the future, keep in mind the future is murky at best. As Yoda said: “Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.”
The one common denominator in all of these rules is to try to evaluate your own team, the rest of the league and all of the players as objectively as possible. If you remember the lessons above and try to keep them in proper perspective, you will be successful in your dynasty league. Just try to be patient.