Every year come fantasy football draft season, injury-prone players are a hot topic. Should you take the risk on them? Does the upside outweigh the risk, or the other way around? Can a player really be injury-prone? These types of players should be avoided and there are many reasons to justify why. However, sometimes they slide in the draft and suddenly the upside outweighs the risk. This is where putting a plan in place for players that have injury issues can be very important.

Avoid, Avoid, Avoid

A large majority of the time, simply avoiding these players is the safest route you can take for your team. Sure, we will occasionally see an injury-prone player make it through an entire season, like we did last season with Keenan Allen , but there are exceptions to every rule and those exceptions are traditionally the rarity and not the norm. Allen played in all 16 games for the first time in his career last year and was a draft steal. However, after seeing him miss one game, two games, eight games and 15 games in his first four seasons respectively, was it worth taking that risk? Short answer, no. He required a fourth or fifth-round pick in most drafts last season and for a player with his injury history, that’s a lot of risk for such an early-round selection. In 2016, Allen required a second-to-third round pick and after tearing his ACL in Week 1, he was done for the year. That was a big investment down the drain.

If you want a poster-child for injury-prone, then take a look at Jordan Reed . He required a similar early-round selection last season and that just didn’t turn out so well, did it? He was only able to play in a career-low six games due to various injuries, including a toe fracture, a chest bruise and a tight hamstring. Yes, it’s the NFL and yes, it is grown men tackling each other which increases the chance of injury with any player, but why put yourself at an even higher risk in fantasy by drafting players who suffer injuries on such a frequent basis? Let someone else take on these risky players. It is not worth it.

Personally, I am big on Jordan Reed ’s talent as I made that known last year in a few of my 2017 Draft Guide pieces. I even drafted him in many leagues just as I have done every year since he entered the NFL. It has only worked out once – the 2011 season -- and even in that year, he missed multiple games and left others early. That’s actually the other part of the equation. It’s not only the games that these injury-prone players will miss, but the games in which they leave the field early and you are stuck with a goose-egg in your lineup that week.

Sometimes it’s hard to let go and taking the risk on Reed has burned me time and time again. Do not let yourself fall in love with a player like this. Yes, if he is ever able to play 16 games he will, most likely, put up a ton of fantasy points, but who knows when that year will be, if it ever happens. History has shown it is much more likely that he misses a minimum of a few games and ends up being a headache on your roster. When deciding your early-round picks, it is simply not worth it to use them on a player with increased injury risk. Your early-round picks are players who you want locked into your lineup every week. Save your risks for the later rounds when you are trying to find value or upside.

What Makes a Player Injury Prone?

This seems pretty simple right? You may be saying “A lot of injuries, duh!” There is more to it than that, though. Far too often the fantasy community wants to mark a guy as injury-prone after he suffers one big injury. Tom Brady for example, he suffered a torn ACL in Week 1 of the 2008 season and missed the rest of the year. At that time many people were worried about injuries going forward with him, but it was the first real injury of his career and he had played in 16 games in six-straight seasons prior. Marking him as injury-prone at that point would be silly and that has proven true, as he has not missed a game due to injury since then. The guys you want to pay attention to are the guys who suffer multiple injuries or miss games due to nagging soft-tissue ailments.  These types of injuries tend to be chronic and will continue to cause a player issues throughout his career. This is true for all sports. There is no reason to avoid David Johnson or Allen Robinson this season because of the injuries they suffered last season. They should be fully healed and are not as at-risk for repeat injuries as are the guys who suffer from groin, ankle, hip, or any other injury of this type.

Injury-Prone Players

Andrew Luck – Luck played in all 16 games his first three years in the NFL, but it has been a swift decline since then. Luck missed nine games in 2015, one in 2016, and missed the entire season in 2017. He has been dealing with what has turned into some major shoulder issues, and how he looks in preseason games will have a big impact on his ADP.

Ben Roethlisberger – Big Ben has played in at least 12 games in all 14 of his NFL seasons, but he has also only played in all 16 games in three of those 14 seasons. He is 36 years old and has a history of missing games. Fantasy owners would be wise to go into drafts assuming he will miss a handful this year as well.

Leonard Fournette – Fournette missed three games in his rookie season, but he also missed multiple games in college during his time at LSU. He has developed a history of soft tissue and ankle problems. Not a guy to avoid, but it would not be surprising to see him miss a few games once again this season, so bake that into his price and projections.

Derrius Guice – Guice heads into his rookie season with an injury concern. He missed a game in 2017 while at LSU with a knee strain, a strain that also limited him for the remainder of the season. These types of strains/nagging injuries can be chronic and it is something to keep in mind with Guice.

Keenan Allen – Allen has missed one, two, eight, 15, and zero games respectively thus far in his five year career. Allen showed us what he is capable of last season, but with his ADP at an all-time high, this is a good year to avoid him.

Sammy Watkins – Watkins has missed zero, three, eight, and one game respectively thus far in his four year career. He has shown flashes of talent here and there, but with his injury history and lack of production in recent years, a strong case can be made for avoiding Watkins in 2018.

Kevin White – White has missed 16, 12, and 15 games respectively thus far in his three year career. White has missed far more games than he has actually played in.

Alshon Jeffery – Jeffery has missed six, zero, zero, seven, four, and zero games respectively thus far in his six year career. On the surface that doesn’t sound that bad, but he had shoulder surgery following the Eagles Super Bowl win to repair a torn rotator cuff. That surgery can take up to 9-12 months to get back to 100%, meaning he is unlikely to be fully himself when the season starts. This injury has not hurt his ADP enough to warrant drafting him.

Jordan Reed – Reed has missed seven, five, two, four, and 10 games respectively thus far in his five year career. Reed, as discussed above, just simply can’t stay healthy or make it through a season. His ADP has plummeted this year, so it might be the first time taking a risk on him actually makes sense.

Tyler Eifert – Eifert has missed one, 15, two, eight, and 14 games respectively thus far in his five year career. Eifert, like Reed, has had similar issues staying healthy and it has lowered his ADP this season significantly. He has huge touchdown upside, but he is an injury waiting to happen.

Rob Gronkowski – Gronk has missed 26 games in his career and has only played in all 16 games twice in eight tries. However, despite the injuries, Gronkowski has still shown the ability to finish amongst top fantasy tight ends on a consistent basis even if he doesn’t play in all the games. That being said, with his ADP as high as it is, Gronk is a very risky option in the second or third round.