The words “neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night stays these couriers from the swift completion of their appointed rounds,” might be an unofficial motto of the United States Postal Service, but the same could be said of the National Football League. It takes a real mother of a storm for Goodell and Co. to reschedule a game. So for DFS players or season long fantasy footballers, the slate you see is the slate you’ll get. The NFL doesn’t dabble in double-headers.

Weather may not have as direct of an impact on NFL games as it does MLB games. Baseball games can straight up be delayed or postponed, which can really screw with a DFS slate or a season-long slate. Rarely is a professional football game delayed or cancelled. If lightning strikes a neighborhood near a stadium they’ll call a delay, but there’s no doubt they’ll get the game in. In the rare case of the Metrodome Roof Collapse a game had to be re-scheduled to Tuesday night to fix the roof in Minnesota. Honestly, the NFL can provide a professional football game every day of the week because when Minnesota’s game was re-scheduled to Tuesday night of that week back in 2010, nobody was complaining about extra football in the middle of the workweek.

In my most honest opinion, weather doesn’t play as significant a role as most people might think. However, don’t tell that to the Dolphins and Steelers from 2007. That game finished with a 3-0 score in favor of the Steelers who won the game on a Jeff Reed field goal with 20 seconds to go. The Dolphins unfortunately fell to 0-11 that season, but don’t worry, Miami fans can attest to the fact that they eventually won a game that year to finish 1-15.

Cold Weather Against Warm Weather Teams

So what is it with the weather for the National Football League? Unless it’s a hurricane or any other natural disaster, the league will play on. So what’s worse: Rain? Snow? Heavy winds? We’ll take a look, but one of the most telling storylines coming out of mid-to-late season playoff pushes is how warm-weather teams perform in cold weather. Per WeatherWorks from 2000-2011 road teams won approximately 42.7% of all games played in the NFL. That seems relatively fair considering home field advantage plays somewhat of a role in how a team performs. However, for teams acclimated to warmer temperatures they won just 35% of the time playing in a colder venue on the road. This is a narrative that plays a bit of a role when players are getting drafted out of college. Will quarterbacks used to playing in the South or West Coast be okay playing in colder weather? The answer is yes, they’ll be fine. The human body works in mysterious ways. If you put a human being in an environment for a long enough time, their body will adjust and get used to the conditions. Crazy, right? So it’s truly blown out of proportion when, for example, the New York Jets select Sam Darnold to be their franchise quarterback. His body will naturally get used to the environment of New York (good luck getting used to the traffic, though). Don’t tell that to Alabama Football Fans though. They’re too concerned about the language barrier between Hawaiians and people from Tuscaloosa.

Windy Conditions

Wind might be the biggest factor for fantasy football production. It mostly impacts quarterbacks and wide receivers because oddly enough tossing a football requires the football to travel through open space. Crazy, right? Quarterbacks that can throw a tight spiral can usually overcome heavy winds. However, referring to the previous article from WeatherWorks, wind decreases passing efficiency by approximately 0.5 yards per attempt with winds at 15-20mph or greater. Now that may not sound like a lot. But Aaron Rodgers is considered one of the best quarterbacks in the game and he plays for the Packers in Green Bay, Wisconsin. For his career he’s averaged 7.9 yards per attempt. His passing efficiency could drop roughly 6.3% if a full half-yard per attempt is impacted by heavy winds. Is this going to keep you from drafting him to your team? No because he’s a gunslinger and one of the best in the game. However, on a windy day in Greeen Bay you may think twice about a Packers stack in GPP tournament formats. If you’re a gambling man you may want to consider betting the under on windy games.

Bet Labs took a look at the Win Rate amongst windy games and found there’s a correlation between winning bets on the Under and wind speeds over ten miles per hour. Typically games have a 49.7% win rate when betting the under in traditional conditions. But with winds over 10mph the win rate on the Under went up to 55.5%.

Rain

Rain seems to be the biggest detractor for fantasy players and there’s some reason to assume so. Sure it can be disastrous for baseball, golf, and NASCAR. The grip of the football is a big concern for rain games, but referees typically dry the ball off as best they can before placing it at the line of scrimmage and quarterbacks, wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends where gloves with the most advanced adhesives. Said adhesives are the only reason I’m not impressed with the One-Handed Odell Beckham Jr. Catch. Back to rainy conditions. Per Sports Betting Stats, pace of play typically takes a hit when playing in rainy conditions. It becomes more difficult to sweep block and it’s more difficult to kick a ball. So in rainy and wet conditions teams will opt for field goals if they’re significantly closer to the goal line. Don’t be surprised if teams punt or go for it a little more on fourth down in the opposing team’s territory.

Snow

Snow games are great if you’ve got a thick skin. You can show up, grab a couple beers in the cold, make a nice little snow cup holder and enjoy your day battling the elements with your team. Snow, like rain, can impact grip on a football due to the precipitation in the air. Snow is typically “wetter” in the North, but you aren’t going to be benching Brady, Rodgers, or Russell Wilson . The biggest impact snow could have on the game is visibility. If it’s a massive storm obviously throwing the ball deeper down field is a gamble and a team may resort to running the ball a bit more. Look no further than LeSean McCoy ’s Snow Bowl performance from last season. There was very little visibility in this game last December in Buffalo. McCoy was the big standout because he rushed for 156 yards on 32 carries with a touchdown. But obviously the team had to resort to going away from the passing game. They should’ve done that from the onset with Nathan Peterman at quarterback (Zing!), but I digress. It’s a simple formula, if it’s a light snow expect the passing game to stay active unless it’s a blowout. If it’s a rare instance where teams are playing amidst a snowstorm, take a shot on the running game more.

Don’t let weather impact your roster settings too much. Teams typically will not adjust their game plan based just on the weather. Only in extreme wind, rain, or snowy conditions will they mix things up as the game progresses. So don’t panic. Check the weather on your own heading into roster lock. Football players have a job to do every Sunday and they’ll face off against the other team, and Mother Nature, if they really have to.