Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals was defined just as much by who was hurt in that game as it was by the play on the floor. All of Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart, Tyler Herro, and Jimmy Butler spent time off the floor with various ailments. Robert Williams was also a late scratch for Boston. Coming into Game 5, the Heat will be without Herro meaning they will need other role players to step up and replace his shot-making. Everyone else seems good for another physical matchup between these two teams. 

As we build our NBA DFS Lineups, we will have some unexpected value available for the Heat. We also can anticipate that the horrific shooting and turnovers from Boston’s studs were a fluke in Game 4. Here are the NBA DFS top plays we can invest in for our lineups on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo!

 

 

 

 

 


Miami Heat Injuries:

 

 


Boston Celtics Injuries:


 

NBA DFS SHOWDOWN MVP/CAPTAIN

 


Jimmy Butler shocked everyone in the building on Saturday when he did not come out of the tunnel for the second half due to knee inflammation. Miami was still able to hold on to their lead and win the game, but Butler’s presence was sorely missed. Before Saturday, he had three straight games with 30% usage and is averaging around eight rebounds and five assists in that span. Assuming he is fully healthy tonight (all reports say he is playing), he will be the number-one option again and might also need to take on slightly more shots with the Heat missing Tyler Herro. 

 

 


Considering the context, Jayson Tatum might have just had the worst game of his career, only giving us 21 fantasy points in 41 minutes on the floor. But I think it’s highly unlikely that he shoots 21% from the floor again and 14% from three. Tatum has not had another game with 21 or fewer points this entire season. The last time he had a poor game in these playoffs (24 fantasy points against the Bucks), he roared back with 56 fantasy points the next game. I would predict something much closer to 50 tonight than 30 fantasy points. In a home matchup that is a must-win situation, I will take Tatum over Butler in the captain spot for just $600 more if I am only making one lineup.

 

 


Jaylen Brown and Al Horford were about the only reliable options for the Celtics in Game 3, although Brown could not hang onto the ball and committee seven turnovers to just one assist. He did shoot 70% from the field in that game, but even if the percentage comes down, the drop in turnovers should counterbalance the shooting regression. Brown won’t have any easy one-on-one matchups with Herro on the shelf, but he has shown he can be just as physical in driving to the lane as Miami has been putting a body on him. This should be another 40+ fantasy point night for Brown. 

 

NBA DFS SHOWDOWN UTILITY 

 

 


Marcus Smart was a team-worst -15 in plus/minus on Saturday as he often was getting torched in situations where that typically doesn’t happen. He also fouled out and wasn’t available for the end of the game when Boston made a furious comeback. His foot injury seems to be all the way behind him now, and assuming he stays out of foul trouble, he should push for 40 minutes easily in this game. Kyle Lowry does look a step slow and the Heat will have to rely on guys like Gabe Vincent and Max Strus a lot in this game. Knowing how badly the Celtics need Smart to lock down the perimeter tonight, I think Smart gets back to 35+ fantasy points, contributing significantly in assists and steals. 

 

 


Bam Adebayo came in and saved the day for the Heat on Saturday, putting up 31 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, and four steals, looking like a modern-day Alonzo Mourning for Miami. Assuming Butler plays a full slate of minutes tonight, we probably are looking at a stat line that doesn’t quite live up to what he did on Saturday, but somehow, we got a $400 salary drop on DraftKings to compensate for it. Adebayo did have a tough stretch of four games leading up to his 63.5-fantasy point masterpiece on Saturday, so manage expectations even with Herro out. 

 

 


If ever there was a time when the Heat needed a fully-healthy Kyle Lowry, it’s tonight. They will be lacking the toughness and shot-making on Tyler Herro and Lowry will need to fill that void from a minutes perspective. Lowry did creep up to 29 minutes in Game 3, his most since April 19, so hopefully that leads to another big night tonight. His 29 fantasy points at just a $6,200 salary offered some much-needed relief for our lineups. Lowry’s assist rate when Herro is off the floor is an impressive 34%, so expect big things from the Heat’s facilitator tonight. 

 

NBA DFS SHOWDOWN DART THROWS

 

 


No player on the Heat benefits more this season when Herro is not playing than Victor Oladipo. His usage goes up an astounding 13% to 35% and he also has a 34% assist rate. Most of this usage will come with the second unit tonight, but I would expect Oladipo’s minutes to be up over 20 again tonight. When Butler didn’t play the second half on Saturday, Oladipo played 20 minutes that half and stabilized the defense on the perimeter for Miami. 

 

 


Grant Williams remains the best combination of high minutes and low salary in this series, but his fantasy points have been between 12 and 41.5 in the last five games, so we never really know what to expect. If Williams can continue to be a nuisance on defense and he gets another six to eight shots tonight, it won’t take too much more to give us 5x of his $5,200 salary on DraftKings. He got a $400 salary drop since his last game. 

 

 


The Celtics have really tightened their rotation in this series, but continue to trust Payton Pritchard with backup guard minutes. In fact, only Pritchard and Grant Williams were positive plus/minus contributors in Game 3 as the starters struggled with shooting and turnovers all game. I certainly prefer Oladipo around this salary level tonight, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Celtics come out hot, claim a big lead in this one against the hobbled Heat and Pritchard ends up with 18-20 minutes. In Game 2, he ended up with 23 minutes and a nice 18.5 fantasy points. For $5,000 that will certainly pay the bills. 

 

 

 

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