Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns

O/U: 212.5

Spread: PHX -8.5

Injuries:

Dallas

Luka Doncic DOUBTFUL

Maxi Kleber OUT

Phoenix

Frank Kaminsky OUT

Dario Saric OUT

MVP/CPT

Devin Booker, PG/SG – With Luka Doncic likely out of this game, it opens up the MVP spot quite a bit. There likely won’t be one overwhelming favorite on the board with all three of the best candidates priced up between $16,500 and $14,400. But Booker and his 60-point ceiling this year stands out. Even in the midst of a shooting slump to start the year, Booker puts up 23.0 points per night, plus chips in with 6.2 rebounds and 5.1 assists. Both his field goals and three-point shooting were back over 50% in his last game, so if this is the beginning of a hot shooting stretch, we are going to want to be on board against the Mavericks who allow the seventh-highest opponents’ field goal percentage this season.

Chris Paul, PG – Paul’s ceiling is just as high as Booker this year, but seven of his 14 games have also been under 40 DK points. Paul did log 14 assists against these same Mavericks just two nights ago, but only scored seven points on abysmal 2-for-12 shooting (0-for-6 on threes). Paul, of course, can break out on any given night, but his elite strengths might be limited tonight. Dallas has the lowest turnover rate in the league and allows the eighth-fewest fast break points to opponents. 

Kristaps Porzingis, PF – Without Doncic, The Unicorn has been lighting it on fire the past two games. He averages 50.5 DK points in his last three and seems to be fully recovered from recent back trouble that caused him to miss five games. Most importantly, Porzingis has played more than 32 minutes in four straight games and shouldn’t have any restrictions with no back-to-back situation to worry about. The Suns are middle of the pack against power forwards, but they do allow 20 points and 10.5 rebounds to the position per night. Porzingis’ usage was 32.2% in his last games, which is more than enough to be a solid MVP choice. 

UTIL

Deandre Ayton, C – Ayton is my favorite utility play tonight and I’m warming up to the idea of him in the MVP spot as well. The Mavericks are the worst team in the league against centers, allowing 60.39 fantasy points per game including the most points and sixth-most rebounds to the position. Ayton didn’t seem to have any limitations in 35 minutes last game and looks to be recovered from injury. This is almost a guaranteed double-double tonight.

Jalen Brunson, PG/SG – Brunson did his normal thing without Doncic in the lineup on Wednesday. He gave us 48.3 DK points with 18 points, nine rebounds and nine assists with a 26% usage rate in almost 37 minutes. He should have that same work level again tonight, so we should feel safe about the floor, even with an elevated $8,800 salary. 

Tim Hardaway, Jr, SG - Hardaway is another player whose usage shot way up on Wednesday without Doncic. He logged 28%, which was his highest number of the year by more than 4% and was able to score 22 points with four assists and two steals against the Suns. The Suns are a solid defensive team, but allow opponents to shoot 35.3% from three, eighth worst in the league. Hardaway should be able to take advantage tonight. 

Value Tier

JaVale McGee, C – With no Frank Kaminsky tonight, McGee will get all of the backup big man minutes. That means we will get 12-16 minutes tonight of 1.29 fantasy points per minute. That should certainly make McGee worth the $4,400 tonight. For all the same reasons Ayton is a great play against a poor Dallas defensive frontcourt, McGee should also be able to thrive. 

Frank Ntilikina, PG – Here is your cheap dart-throw of the night. With Doncic out, that leaves so many minutes, shots, assists, and rebounds up for grabs. Ntilikina grabbed some of that opportunity on Wednesday and produced 21.75 DK points in just 18 minutes on the court. He should play similar minutes tonight (or perhaps more if Brunson struggles) and is basically free at $2,200. That salary lets you get as many of the studs as you want.