Happy New Year, ALL! I hope you all rang in the new year with loved ones and good times and let's get ready to attack 2024! Tonight, we have a west coast clash with the Miami Heat traveling into Los Angeles to Crypto.com Arena to face off against the Clippers! There is plenty to like about this game, so let's talk about it!

Finding some of the NBA DFS top picks could be easier if you look at Fantasy Alarm’s NBA DFS Projections, powered by FanJections. Let’s dive into the complete breakdown for tonight’s showdown slate.

 

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Total: 227.5

Spread: Clippers (-7.5)

Miami Heat Injuries

Los Angeles Clippers Injuries

 

NBA DFS Showdown CPT/MVP Top Plays

Tyler Herro, Miami Heat

Herro has been the best player on this Heat team for fantasy purposes with Jimmy Butler off the floor this season since he returned from his own injury a few weeks ago. Since Herro retook the court on 12/18, he has failed to score 40+ fantasy points in just one (first game back and vs MINNE) of the six games he has played over that span. He is almost a lock for 40+ fantasy points on more nights than he will not. Like that he is also the fourth or so priced player on this showdown slate, so gives some roster flexibility.  

James Harden, Los Angeles Clippers

It is still uncertain whether Kawhi Leonard will suit up for tonight's game and given the report that he practiced yesterday may mean he is nearing that return and could see the floor tonight. Have to think the Clippers may take it easy with him know there is quite a bit of the season left and up until recently, Kawhi had played every game and back-to-back sets. Either way, Harden has played amazingly with and without Leonard and I think that will continue here tonight against Miami on his home floor. Harden has played big minutes in competitive games, and saw 40 and 43 in his last two games resulting in 55 and 47 fantasy points. I think one way to attack this Heat team is not on the interior where Bam Adebayo resides. 

 

NBA DFS Showdown UTIL Top Plays

Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat

Bam is playing extremely well also without Butler on the floor. He and Herro are the main focal points of this Heat team and they are the go-to's. Bam will not have the easiest match up against Zubac in the paint, but we know how skilled of a big Bam is and he will find ways to accrue fantasy points. I don't mind sticking Bam at CPT/MVP, as I think he is essentially a lock for 40+ fantasy points most nights as well. Adebayo has played 36+ minutes in four-straight games, while putting up 43, 57, 39, and 64 fantasy points over that span.

Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers

Obviously this is a contingency play with Kawhi and has two contingencies: 1.) He has to play, and 2.) No reported minutes limitations. We know that if he is a full-go and plays 30+ minutes, we have seen his upside and he most definitely has a ceiling with his defensive prowess. Before missing the last four games for the Clippers, Leonard had recorded at least 44 or more fantasy points in six of his last seven games.

Paul George, Los Angeles Clippers

PG is such a consistent player and he does a little bit of everything, but you can tell he takes a back seat most nights to Harden and Leonard when they are all three playing. Either way, he is an excellent floor play for this slate and we know he will get 30+ minutes on the floor. In doing so, you can bet that he will grab you 30+ fantasy points more often than not. Spot here is decent also without Butler on the floor to defend the 3-4 position.

Jaime Jaquez, Miami Heat

With the Heat already without the services of Jimmy Butler and the fact that Caleb Martin is “doubftul” to play here tonight, this should unlock some more minutes once again for Jaquez, who has played very well in games without those two so far this season. Although, Jaquez doesn't demand a higher usage rate, and has just a 0.88 fantasy point per minute without those two on the floor, he is seeing an average fantasy point output of around 31, while also seeing the most minute sample by a large margin compared to his teammates (521 minute sample). He is a excellent look here tonight.

 

NBA DFS Showdown Value Top Plays

Russell Westbrook, Los Angeles Clippers

If Kawhi does re-take the floor tonight, this could mean less overall minutes for all of the Clippers back-ups or second unit, but Russ has still been seeing 21-25 minutes nightly. Over Westbrook's last seven appearances, he has secured at least 25 fantasy points and this is likely what we could and should expect from him as the second unit floor general.

Kevin Love, Miami Heat

With the Heat being down multiple frontcourt pieces, Love has actually been more than serviceable in these spots. It is a smaller minute sample, but in 133-minutes so far this season without Butler on the floor, Love sees a whopping 1.25 fantasy point per minutes. This is mainly because he is super impactful when he is on the floor for his 20ish minutes a game. Love has recorded at least 23 fantasy points or more in eight of his last ten games. 

Nikola Jovic, Miami Heat

This last play in could also be Norman Powell if you have the salary to spare, however, if Jovic is starting here again today seeing that Caleb Martin is looking more on the side of sitting compared to playing, he will be in play at his price for this slate. Jovic duded in his second start of the season last time out vs the Utah Jazz and finished the game with just 10 minutes of action and 10.5 fantasy points, but the game before where he got his first spot-start, he played 20 minutes and recorded nearly 24 fantasy points against the Warriors. This will be solely if he is starting.

Other possible scenarios:

*Kyle Lowry and/or Josh Richardson is OUT- Could look at RJ Hampton as a cheap value off bench, who could possibly start.

*Mason Plumlee still OUT- Could look at Daniel Theis as a cheap option that should see 10-12 minutes.

 

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