NBA DFS Showdown Playbook May 21: Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
In Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs, the Boston Celtics jetted out to a big lead and burnt the Miami Heat with strong shooting from the field. The Celtics were shooting over 63 percent from beyond the arc and they ended up shooting 50 percent from long-range for the game. The Celtics never relinquished their big lead as their hot shooting never cooled off. As the series shifts to Boston, Miami is likely getting a good defensive weapon back in Kyle Lowry, but the question remains whether or not he’ll be healthy and conditioned enough to make a positive impact on the floor. He’s hurt yet he has helped them when he’s suited up in the playoffs. However, Boston has a more dynamic offense than Miami and the Heat need someone with grit and experience to help contain Boston. The Heat may also be catching a break as Robert Williams has played suffocating defense on Bam Adebayo and he was given a questionable tag earlier today as his knee is bothering him. Bam Adebayo has hardly been utilized on offense and if he’s out, the Heat may need to force the ball inside to him so they can keep pace with the Celtics scoring. Regardless if Williams plays or not, based on what we saw last game, tonight will be an uphill climb for Miami and they’ll need to hit 45-50 percent of their three-pointers to hang in tonight’s game. Here are the NBA DFS top plays we can invest in for our lineups on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo!
Miami Heat Injuries:
*Kyle Lowry-Questionable
*P.J. Tucker-Questionable
*Gabe Vincent-Questionable
*Max Strus-Questionable
Boston Celtics Injuries:
*Robert Williams-Questionable
*Nik Stauskas-Questionable
MVP/CAPTAIN
Jimmy Butler: As good as the Celtics are defensively, they haven’t found a way to contain Jimmy Butler and Butler isn’t making it easy as he’s shot over 61 percent from the floor in both games he’s battled against the Heat in this series. Besides Butler, the Heat continue to get inconsistent offense from other pieces. He’s had to carry the bulk of the offense and even with him acknowledging he has to set up his teammates more, if his shots are falling, he’s their best bet to keep the Heat in this game. Butler continues to produce steals and he’s scored a total of 70 points in this series and he’s grabbed at least six rebounds in each of his last four games. He’s the most trustworthy Heat option for DFS by far and hopefully Kyle Lowry likely being back allows Butler to play a bit more off the ball and he doesn’t have to bring up the ball as much and he can focus on finding his spots. Even Tyler Herro hasn’t been a reliable shooter from downtown in this series and that’s normally his bread and butter. The offense will continue to run through Butler and we should see him take 17-22 shots this evening.
Jayson Tatum: Tatum has seen a lot of success against Miami so far and after shooting over 61 percent in Game 2, we should look to invest in him. He’s stolen the ball five times this series and he’s done an excellent job getting the ball out of his hands when the defense collapses on him. The Celtics have a lot of shooters and Tatum will continue to be prioritized when it comes to the Heat’s defense more than any other team. Tatum has dropped five-plus dimes in both games. Another blowout is hard to predict and let’s not forget how good defensively the Heat really are. Expect the game to be a bit closer, especially if Robert Williams doesn’t play and Tatum should be back to playing around 40 minutes. He’s constantly moving on the court and has been making Jimmy Butler and P.J. Tucker work when they switch on him. P.J. Tucker has been a bit banged up and the Celtics should see a few more openings if he’s not up to speed tonight and that’ll benefit the forwards.
Jaylen Brown: Jimmy Butler also has to watch Brown who has taken 17 shots in both games against the Heat and he’s scored 24 points in both. With the Celtics having big men in and out, Brown has had to hang by the elbow more and grab long rebounds. He’s pulled down 18 rebounds in his last two games and he’s actually pulled down eight or more boards in four of his last five battles. Brown normally gives us a steady dose of shooting from inside and outside the arc and Brown has actually hit at least 50 percent of his long-range shots and has hit or exceeded that percentage in three of his last four outings. Brown will need to continuously attack the arc to show that the Celtics can produce from inside and if Robert Williams is out, Brown will have to attack the rim a bit more as he did in Game One, where he shot ten free throws in that contest. We should see him play more minutes tonight than he did last game.
UTILITY
Marcus Smart: It was a bit strange that the Celtics were up as big as they were throughout the whole game and Smart logged 40 minutes after not playing the previous game and Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown didn’t. He took 22 shots. Kyle Lowry is a better defender than Gabe Vincent, but we don’t know if Lowry is 100 percent and if Smart is in attack mode, he may be able to take advantage of Lowry who has missed the last few weeks of action. Smart was one rebound shy of a triple and double and even though he shot under 37 percent from the floor, he still hit five three-pointers. The reigning NBA Defensive Player Of The Year also posted three steals and a block. He’s actually blocked shots in four of his last five battles and he swiped 1.6 balls per game during the season. Smart looked spry and agile and that injured foot wasn’t bothering him.
Grant Williams: Robert Williams now being questionable does keep this game a bit closer, but if the Celtics go in with the same game plan as last game and are hitting their shots, it’ll be a double-digit game and especially with Williams banged up, it could result in Grant Williams picking up a few more shots with Horford having to shift to center at times. Williams earns his keep in the Celtics rotation from his strong defense at the elbow and arc. He does a great job anticipating screens and ducking them so he can stay on his defensive assignment. He’s posted steals in both games in this series and in three of his last four games. He’s also pulled down four-plus boards in three of his last four outings. Williams scored 19 points last game and even though we saw him have that strong Game Seven against the Bucks in the previous series when he threw up 18 three-pointers, Williams can score from inside the arc as well. Williams has scored 19 or more points in two of his last three outings. He hasn’t been getting a lot of shots, but the minutes continue to be there.
Tyler Herro: When Herro follows up shots, he’s a much more productive player and he pulled down eight rebounds in the first game of this series. He should still see double-digit shots and while he may not have the ball in his hands as much, we should still see him hit double figures in scoring. He’s scored 29 points total so far against Boston. Herro has also grabbed steals in three of his last five games. If the Heat aren’t hitting their three-pointers, Herro needs to utilize his speed to get to the basket and draw contact. The Heat need to believe in his driving ability a bit more. His three-point shooting has been a mess this post-season and he’ll have to find ways to get inside with his strong drive. He’s hit just two three-pointers in his last five battles.
DART THROWS
Kyle Lowry: Barring any setbacks in warmups, Lowry should be back in action and reports are out that if he plays he will most likely start, but even with him activated and starting, how much trust can we put into him? Lowry wasn’t pulling through from a production standpoint since the middle of Miami’s series against the Hawks. He wasn’t scoring and his assist totals were inconsistent. Did I feel the same way about Marcus Smart the other night? Clearly. I didn’t put him in the write up out of fear that he wasn’t 100 percent healthy. Lowry has a little bit more risk attached to him because he looked bad before he sat out the last few games in the postseason and he has one of the best defenders of the last ten years in Marcus Smart on him. Lowry could be a scoring decoy to try to draw the extra defender and that will likely result in him compiling more assists, but will he produce in other areas? He’s not cheap. He truly is a dart-throw tonight.
Gabe Vincent: Vincent is very likely losing his starting job tonight but that doesn’t mean he won’t be useful tonight. Vincent will serve as a good change-of-pace option off the bench. It’s unknown whether or not Lowry will play 30 minutes and at least for this game, we can take the risk of playing Vincent at a cheaper price point. Vincent can still see seven-to-ten shots and Miami will need to play faster than they normally do if Boston is hitting their shots otherwise they’ll be run right out of the arena again. Vincent is good at pushing the ball up and seeing if he has the open lane while looking for his cutter. If he feeds the cutter, especially on transition, and the Celtics amazing defense gets set and locks down the cutter, Vincent will be open from beyond the arc. He’s hit over 42 percent of his three-pointers in both games in this series.
Payton Pritchard: Even with Derrick White back in the mix, the Celtics have relied on Pritchard and he can still find himself playing 15-20 minutes. If the Celtics can hit 45-50 percent of their shots from the outside, they’ll have a comfortable lead and we may see Pritchard pick up garbage time minutes. He’s scored in double figures in each of his last three games and grabbed five boards and a steal in two of his last three outings. He’s been very scrappy on defense interfering with Miami’s possessions and he can also use his quickness to get to the basket. He’s utilized mainly as a bailout shooter from downtown. We can see him take five-to-eight shots tonight.
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