NBA DFS Playbook October 31

Lebron or no Lebron, Westbrook is a great play no matter what, particularly on DraftKings where he is just $300 more than Damian Lillard and has the nightly potential for the double-double and triple-double bonus. After a relatively slow start to the season, Mr. Triple-Double is averaging 52 fantasy points in his last three games. 

An ideal tournament pivot off of Westbrook, Harden finally had an elite game with 56.5 DraftKings points and 55.60 FanDuel points on Friday. The minutes and usage are still solid (at least 27% usage in five of six games). Harden has always been an across-the-board contributor, but he has stepped it up with at least two stocks (steals + blocks) in every game this year.

The underlying usage and production might take a slight hit with Terry Rozier back in the rotation today, but don't expect Ball to continue to score under 10 points like he has the last two games. Ball has been above 24% usage in all but one game this year. 

With his injury concerns behind him, Porter is an excellent mid-range option for this complete contribution to the box score. The Rockets and Lakers rank second and fourth in Pace, respectively, so expect this to be a track meet where Porter can thrive. 

With Cade Cunningham already getting the dreaded “injury management” treatment, Joseph has an opportunity for big minutes off the bench for Detroit. Yesterday against Orlando, Joseph scored 26 fantasy points in just 26 minutes. 

He hasn't quite captured the magic from his Opening Night masterpiece when he scored 32 fantasy points in 29 minutes. But he is still at almost 21 fantasy points per game and may get a boatload of garbage time with Nets as 12.5-point favorites tonight. 

With Mike Conley on the shelf last night, Mitchell went off for 44 fantasy points on an other-worldly 42.2% usage. This is a much better play on FanDuel where at just $8,100 he can easily 5x his salary. 

If Mitchell looks better on FanDuel, McCollum looks like a straight steal on DraftKings. McCollum disappointed in his last game against the Clippers (22.7 fantasy points), but he was at 44.5 fantasy points per game in his four prior games as he continues to be a very capable Robin to Lillard's Batman. 

Rozier has only been able to be on the court for 22 total minutes this season, so we haven't seen the Rozier-Ball dynamic, but Rozier was an $8,000 player by the end of last season, consistently putting up 40+ fantasy points. The Trail Blazers play at the fastest pace in the league and allow the third-most points to point guards this season.

We've seen the good and the bad in this early season from the number two overall pick in the draft. My guess is this is on the “good” side of the ledger tonight considering the Lakers allow 40.36 points to the shooting guard position, most in the NBA. Green has 40-point upside at below $6,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. 

You aren't going to find many players putting up 30 minutes and 23 fantasy points per game at such a low salary, particularly on Yahoo. He is just $1 above the minimum on that site and will continue to get all the run he can handle with Jrue Holiday and Donte Divencenzo out. 

The only thing holding this guy back from an absolute monster game is if he sits most of the fourth-quarter due to a blowout. 42 fantasy points and 24% usage is the FLOOR for Durant this season, and he has yet to play in a game where he did score at least 22 points from the floor. And just for kicks, Durant is averaging the most rebounds in his career this year. 

This is the main injury news to watch headed into lock. If we do not hear about his status, James would make for an elite GPP play at likely lower roster percentage. We know LeBron has 70-point upside and Houston only ranks 18th in overall defensive rating.

I don't quite know what's keeping Middleton's salary so low on DraftKings. He scored at least 35 fantasy points in five straight and this looks like an easy salary for Middleton to 5x with Holiday and Lopez still out. His salary dropped $300 overnight for reasons unknown. 

Hayward is another player who might be adversely impacted by the return of Rozier. But Hayward has only been above 20% usage in one game this year, and is still averaging 36.75 fantasy points per night. Hayward is a solid source of rebounds, assists, steals and blocks every game. 

Mid-$4,000s for a player who is on the court for 30 minutes and scoring 20.3 fantasy points over this last three? I'll take it. It's even better on Yahoo where Brown is $1 above the minimum. 

With Conley likely back tonight, Bogdanovich may not reach 31 fantasy points again, but if Conley is at all limited we can have no hesitation moving onto Boj-Bog in tournaments. He has been playing at least 25 minutes and has scored at least 20 fantasy points in every game this year. 

We've got what's known as the Cooper Kupp Conundrum on our hands with The Greek Freak in this early part of the season. Both are producing at such a high level (hey look, Kupp just scored again today!) that they are going to test the upper limits of the DraftKings and FanDuel pricing algorithm. In a “down” game on Saturday, Giannis scored 48 fantasy points with 28 actual points and 13 rebounds. The Jazz are playing at a much faster pace this year (12th in the NBA) than they have historically, so buckle up for this one. the only thing that can hold him back tonight is a minutes restriction on a back-to-back.

This is a phenomenal salary on DraftKings whether LeBron James is in the lineup or not. The Rockets don't have anything even resembling a player that can slow down Davis and I look forward to seeing how he abuses Daniel Theis tonight. The Rockets allow the fourth-most points to the position this year and have played exactly one power forward with elite offensive ability (Jayson Tatum). 

The production for the Pistons frontcourt is going to rotate between Grant, Isaiah Stewart and Kelly Olynyk all season, which means Grant is a GPP option in that guessing game unless one of the other two are ruled out. Grant has two games with 40 fantasy points and two under 36 so far. How lucky do you feel especially since Brookly ranks seventh against the position.

That four-year, $60 million contract extension Bridges turned down from the Hornets looks quite quaint now considering he is averaging over 25 points and eight rebounds per night this year. But all we care about is that we get to keep playing him for $8,000 and under with this level of production. If ever there was an example for the contract year narrative, Bridges would be Exhibit A.

There have been a couple turn-back-the-clock nights for 'Melo so far this year, but he still is too erratic to recommend as an every-night cash play. If James sits, he might see his priority in my lineups elevate, especially in the elite game environment against the Rockets. No matter what, the minutes are stable if you need a cheap power forward. 

We aren't looking for points from Covington, but we need the ancillary stats to pay off even a salary near the minimum. He finally started to deliver those in two of his last three games, and his minutes have increased in each of the last three games. 

Gobert is the clear top-end Center option tonight, especially with no Brook Lopez to worry about, but there is one variable to consider. Will Gobert guard Giannis tonight? If so, that could pull him out of the lane, robbing us of rebound and blocked shot opportunities, and raising the risk of foul trouble. But beyond that, Gobert has been on fire to start the year, posting at least 16 points and 14 rebounds in every game. He has failed to score 45 fantasy points just once this year.

With both Porter and Green starting the year inconsistently for the Rockets, Wood has been a rock with at least 32 fantasy points and 22% in every game. Even in blowouts, Wood's minutes have been north of 30, so he should provide a safe floor with 50+ upside. 

Olynyk's first two games for the Pistons? Abysmal. 20.50 fantasy points, no more than 10 points, four total assists and three total stocks. His last three? Amazing. At least 14 points and five rebounds per game, 11 assists and 10 total stocks. He is getting the usage and minutes are now in the upper 20's. He is a safe value play tonight. 

Much like Carmelo Anthony, Aldridge has given us a couple vintage performances this season (33 and 34 fantasy points). But his other games have multiple fantasy performances below 12 points, which screams GPP play. At his salary, all you need is 24 points to 5x, and the Pistons allow the third-most to the position.