NBA DFS Playbook: November 7

Despite not shooting more higher 43% from the field, still averages 46.2 fantasy points per game in his last six. Imagine if the best shooter ever actually shot well in a game? Blowout risk against the Rockets mitigated by 221.5 implied total. 

With Jakob Poeltl on the shelf, Murray is the Spurs offense right now. Only player in the league averaging at least 18 points, eight rebounds and eight assists.

While the rest of the Hornets' offense is in a funk, Ball is averaging 48.25 in his last three games. Tough matchup against the Clippers, but still highest implied total on the slate at 222.5. 

Oklahoma City is often heavy underdogs, but there's only a four-point spread in this game meaning SGA should be play plenty of minutes. At least 40 fantasy points in five of six games. 

Two of the worst teams in the league for Pace so no surprise the total is just 209. Garland is the consistent backcourt engine this year when healthy, averaging 20 points and nine assists in his last two, easily 5x his salary. 

This is presumably a more competitive game than Friday's blowout loss to New York, which means Holiday should get more than 20 minutes. Take advantage of the low salary while you can. 

Cleveland allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards, which feels like something I have been writing for 10 years. With Kemba Walker out for this game, Rose should be in for huge minutes just two days after putting up 44 fantasy points in 30 minutes. 

If Brogdon can't play today, this is the lock value play of the slate. Tied for highest implied total at 222.5. The last two games McConnell played at least 26 minutes, he averages 37.75 fantasy points. 

Friday's blowout dud broke a streak of four games with at least 25 points scored. Also played a crazy 38.4 minutes per night before Friday's 27 minutes. Sneaky good matchup against the Bucks who allow the fifth-most points scored to the position. 

$100 more expensive ideal pivot off of Beal in tournaments, especially with Mike Conley out. Blowout risk is real, but Magic allow 21.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 3.5 three-pointers to opposing shooting guards. 

Two ABYSMAL games have dropped his salary across the board (as well as my bank account balance), but we have seen 40-point upside this season and he is playing buckets of minutes and shooting 12-20 times per game. 

One of the fastest-rising stars in the league, yet still has a salary lower than Josh Giddey. Averaging 33.7 fantasy points in his past five games but underrated in the ancillary stats. Averaging four rebounds, four assists and almost two steals per game in last four. 

Tough matchup and low total, so best left to GPPs. Can give you a 25% shooting night or a 60% shooting night. Last six games show it's a coin flip. How lucky do you feel? 

We will definitely continue to take the 20+ fantasy point performances at these salaries. I'm predicting a slight uptick from his 26 minutes per game as the Clippers will need his defense to help lock down Ball and Rozier. Has seven steals + blocks his last three games. 

Paul George has the fourth-highest usage rate in the NBA and has simply been unstoppable this season, scoring under 39 fantasy points just once. Hornets allow 25.6 points scored to small forwards, second-most in the league.

The small forward position is George and a bunch of guys today, but Wiggins is going to get you a guaranteed 20-30 fantast points. He has a safe floor and also 40-point upside in this lightning-fast Pace game. 

Barrett is playing the best basketball of his career, scoring at least 20 points in five straight games for the first time ever. Broken record time: the Cavs are bad against small forwards as well, allowing the eighth-most points to the position. 

I'm not in love with his price tag across the sites, but he has shown a 33-point fantasy floor in three of his past four games and gets a nice Pace bump against the Spurs. He is always involved in every category in the box score. 

Simply a cheap punt play at the position, especially on FanDuel. He has scored between 13 and 35 fantast points in his last five games, you just have to hope he gets involved in more ways than just scoring. 

At least 30 minutes and 22 fantasy points in five straight AND Conley is missing the game? Sign me up. 

I guess the Wizards are going to try and guard Giannis with Daniel Gafford in this game? Maybe they swarm him? Whatever the plan is, good luck with it. Giannis averages 1.73 fantasy points per minute in his last five games and is far away the favorite for most raw points on this slate. 

Say it with me: The Cavs are bad against power forwards, ranking bottom-10 against them as well. I really don't mind a Randle pivot in tournaments considering he has at least 42 fantasy points in all but one game this year. Even in blowouts like their last game, he played 33 minutes. 

Just an absolute smash play on FanDuel today where he is at his lowest salary of the season after a couple mediocre games. Be a goldfish. Have a short memory. Smash Sabonis there. He is reasonably priced for his normal elite production on DK and Yahoo. 

Still no PJ Washington to take away his minutes, and Bridges is making those extra minutes count. Even after dropping a dud in his last game, he is at 43 fantasy points per game and playing more than 35 minutes per night. His salary is still too low for the production. 

This will be a tough matchup against the Jazz, but Carter has four double-doubles in his last five games and has DFS managers saying "Mo Bamba who?" There are only five players averaging a double-double this year in under 30 minutes per game. Carter is one of them. 

Another Rockets punt option in a great game environment. Martin displayed 20 fantasy point upside in three of the past four games and has his minutes creep up when Daniel Theis is injured. 

The Spurs allow the second-most fantasy points to power forwards this year, so Bazley deserves a look in GPPs. Bazley has a 20-point floor and 40-point upside based on his past week of games. 

Gobert was the best center option on the slate even before Conley was ruled out. I'm not quite sure what Gobert was doing in his last game (only eight points and eight rebounds), but his M.O. this year has been a consistent 15 points, 15 rebounds and two blocks in every game this season. 

With such similar salaries across all three sites, Wood is a perfect pivot off of a chalky Gobert. Wood has the better game environment and sits only one double-double behind Gobert this season (Wood has six). At 37 minutes in each of his last three games, you can take a double-double to the bank. 

No center has played better than Allen in their last three games. Allen has 51 fantasy points per game on 21.3 points, 16 rebounds, and three steals + blocks per game in that span. The salary is just too low despite the depressed game environment. 

The Kings somehow allow an astounding 21.2 rebounds per game to opposing centers, two rebounds more than any other team this year. Turner has been on a heater over his last four games and I can not explain why he is cheaper than Harrell, Bamba, and Poeltl. 

If you want to punt at center, you might as well do it against a team that ranks second-worst against the position and allows 23 points and 19 rebounds per game. I don't know that you can count on the 32.5 minutes per night he saw in his last two games, but we will certainly take it at these salaries. 

Purely another “vs. the Cavs” play here for GPPs. Cleveland ranks 26th against the center position and if we get 28-30 minutes in this game, it's a guaranteed eight points, 10 rebounds, and two blocks for Robinson.