NBA DFS Playbook November 21: Julius Randle Takes on OKC Thunder

Finally had a let down game. He's not perfect but this matchup against the Knicks is a great spot to get back on track. Guards against the Knicks have continued to be a thing for us this season and we just saw SGA  go for 63 FP in this matchup two weeks ago.

Everyone was worried about Haliburton in this same matchup the other night because he was coming off the ankle injury from the night prior and all he did was go out there and drop 22 points with 14 assists, three blocks and two steals. Haliburton's price keeps going up but this is yet another spot for him to show his ceiling.

Who is going to be active for the Heat? Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler and Gabe Vincent were all ruled out on Sunday in a really tough spot against the Cavaliers. This matchup against the Timberwolves is an easier one but with the back-to-back there is at least some concern. That said, if the Heat continue to be short-handed we know the volume will be there.

Brunson has been giving us pretty consistent near 40 FP production. This last meeting against the Thunder saw the Knicks bench most of their starters. I don't expect that to be the case here and will hope we see another high game total where Brunson can thrive.

Mike Conley is out of the lineup. Clarkson can be a usage machine and with Conley out of the lineup the ball may be in his hands more to run the offense. Whether it be Reggie Jackson or John Wall in this spot I don't see either giving Clarkson issues.

Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins have been ruled out tonight. Poole has a usage rate over 30% when those three are off the floor this season. Even in a blowout we should expect to see him on the floor plenty tonight given their overall lack of depth.

We've been seeing ceiling games from Suggs of late with games of 35, 40 and 44 FP over the last three. Wendell Carter Jr. is questionable to play in this game and if he misses time there are more shots to go around. Iike the price and the matchup.

GPP dart throw here. Quickly has been getting the minutes run of late and against the Thunder he went for 41 FP when the team's starters got benched. He's flashed 35+ FP upside a handful of times this season and has gotten at least 26 minutes in four straight games. 

Ingram has had some tough shooting nights lately but he production continues to be there because he fills the stat sheet and will get to the free throw line. This will be a fun game to stack if you can find the value and Ingram is going to be in play here at this price.

We just saw him go for 43 FP in this same matchup the other night. He is giving us pretty consistent mid-30s fantasy point production. If Wendell Carter is out of the lineup again it only helps his ceiling. 

Matchups against the Celtics are never easy but this price point is just too low for what LaVine can bring to the table. LaVine was pretty outspoken about being benched against the Magic the other night and I would expect him to be motivated by that benching to prove he deserves to be on the floor.

Shooters shoot. Hield knocked down five three-pointers against the Magic the other night. The issue was that he didn't give us his typical production in the other categories. The price is a bit high so if he makes your lineup its going to come at lower ownership.

Could enter the starting lineup with Mike Conley ruled out. At the very least he should see increased minutes off the bench. It's probably worth mentioning that after Conley left the game the other night it was Talen Horton-Tucker that subbed in. Unfortunately this is a late game so are unlikely to get a starting lineup before roster lock. 

Williams has been playing a lot more minutes for the Thunder of late and proving why he was a lottery pick by not only showing some of his offensive upside but his overall contributions as well. He is a GPP only play for me because he is still a rookie, he will have his off nights and SGA is a very ball dominant guard but there is a lot to like here. 

Starting tonight with Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins ruled out. DDV is a player that we've seen fill the stat sheet in year's past when he was a member of the Bucks but he's gotten off to a slow start this year with the Warriors. This is a nice opportunity for him to grab you some steals and potentially double-digit points.

Cam Reddish did not play on Sunday against the Suns due to a groin injury. Grimes started in his place played 32 minutes, finishing with 10 points, five rebounds, eight assists and one block. If Reddish is again ruled out Grimes becomes a pretty strong value play on this slate given the matchup against the Thunder. A first round pick last season, in games where he played at least 30-minutes last season he averaged 13.0 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.5 blocks while shooting 47% from three-point range. 

At this price I'm sure most will just play Steph Curry instead but if you wanted to be contrarian then you could run Tatum out there. His shot is off right now, having shot less than 40% in three straight games. Despite the poor shooting he is still showing a floor average of 45 FP with a ceiling closer to 70 FP like we saw against the Pistons. Against Chicago earlier this year he went for 66 FP while shooting just 8-for-23 from the floor.

Markkanen had 37 FP in the first meeting against the Clippers this season scoring 18 points with nine rebounds, three assists, one block and one steal. He is averaging 45 FP over the last two games which included a ceiling game of 52 FP against the Suns two games ago.

Tough matchup but Hart is a guy that goes out there and fills up the stat sheet. With Damian Lillard out of the lineup we could see more from Hart here.

Beasley was on fire the other night, scoring 29 points on 10-of-18 shooting. He's now scored 29 and 27 points in each of the last two games while going for 36 and 38 FP. This level of shooting is not sustainable but with Mike Conley out of the lineup I'd be shocked to see him play anything less than 28 minutes.

The health of the Heat lineup with determine just how much exposure we will need to Miami here on the second night of a back-to-back. The Timberwolves are a much easier defensive matchup for Martin than he just had against the Cavaliers.  Nice mid-tier price.

Paul George is questionable to play on Monday. If Paul sits and with Leonard still limited we may dip our toe back in the Norman Powell pool. Powell is starting to break out of his slump with games of at least 22 FP in five of the last seven games with a high of 36 FP against the Spurs the other night.

Going to be starting tonight for the Warriors with their starters resting on the second night of a back-to-back. Has been a productive player this year when given the extended minutes which included a game against the Pelicans already this season.

After Mike Conley went out with an injury the other night it was THT that got subbed into the game in his place over the likes of Sexton or Beasley. THT played 32 minutes against Portland in that game and finished with 21 fantasy points. In the only other game this season where THT saw close to starters minutes he went for 34 FP against Houston back on October 26th. In that game he played 28 minutes with Jarred Vanderbilt fouling out after just 19 minutes of play. 

After back-to-back big performances from Towns we got a down game against the Sixers where he finished with just 12 points and eight rebounds. Miami is still short-handed and Towns will have a ton of size on this front court. I think this is a good price for a bounce back spot for Towns.

He's the cover of the playbook for a reason. The Thunder front court has been exploitable all season long. Sure, Mitchell Robinson being back clogs the middle up a bit but Randle went for 44 FP in this matchup a few games ago and his ceiling was on display against the Nuggets when he dropped 63 FP.

He was a chalk play the other night with Wendell Carter Jr. out of the lineup and he smashed,  going for 22 points and 11 rebounds with two blocks. Even if WCJ plays Bol has proven to be a great fantasy option but as the price rises it's better value to get him with WCJ out.

Williams has been a staple of our lineups this season when looking for a value play at the forward position. The Bulls second-year wing has finished with at least 20 FP in seven of nine games during the month of November.

Good chance he and Jordan Poole are the highest two rostered players on the slate tonight. We love his fantasy point per minute upside. The lone worry with Kuminga is always the foul trouble but he has a very high ceiling at a low price tag.

Continues to see decent minutes off the bench as the backup center for the Pelicans. I say backup loosely as he has actually seen more minutes per game this month than the team's starting center in Jonas Valanciunas.  Given that the Warriors tend to play smaller at the center position this could be yet another game where Lance sees the floor of Valanciunas more often than not.

Turner finished with another double-double, his fifth in six games. That said, the 38 FP was a bit disappointing from Turner. He had just one block, one steal and zero assists. Turner is averaging 3.0 blocks per game so if we can get similar scoring and rebounding and a bit more defense we should see him crack the 40 FP ceiling once again.

While the Celtics defense is certainly getting better it's hard not to look at Vucevic here at this ridiculously low price tag. He went for 53 FP against the Magic on Friday and against the Celtics earlier this year he finished with 48 FP after scoring 24 points with 12 rebounds.

This is not an easy matchup for Capela but the fact that the Cavs have two guys in Mobley and Allen in their front court should mean that Capela will be on the floor plenty in this game. When he has played 30 minutes this season he has been giving us close to 40 FP most nights.

Allen didn't look great against the Heat but I think this is an interesting low-owned spot for him here tonight. He's gone for 45+ FP in two of the last five to show the type of upside he has in certain matchups. We know the rebounding and shot blocking opportunities will be there for him this evening. 

Assuming Wendell Carter is ruled out then Bamba is back in play. He has been one of the highest rostered centers over the past few slates where WCJ has been ruled out. The price tag is up he showed his ceiling against the Pacers the other night when he went for 21 and nine with one block and two steals over 33 minutes.

Steady as they come right now. Nikola Vucevic is not a good defender and while Horford isn't a primary source of offense on this Celtics roster he does make the open shots that he gets. Horford is averaging 33.5 FP over the past four games.

GPP dart throw here at this price. Olynyk flashed his ceiling against the Knicks a few slates back and the Clippers are weaker defensive team in their front court. If he can get hot from three-point range we could get 7-8x return.

No Poku out for the Thunder. JRE should be in for some solid minutes here against the Knicks. He isn't my favorite player but given their lack of depth and the price I think he can get us what we are looking for. The last two games where he played 30 minutes we got 29 and 26 fantasy points which including a game against tonight's opponents in the Knicks.