NBA DFS Playbook May 7: Top DraftKings and FanDuel Plays
We have a two-game NBA DFS main slate on Sunday, May 7th, on DrattKings and FanDuel. It's a pair of Game 4's in the NBA postseason as the Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns look to equalize their respective series on their home floors. Be sure to check out our NBA DFS projections, powered by FanJections, NBA DFS Lineup Generator, and all of the rest of our NBA DFS content and tools! Let's dive into my top plays of the night.
Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers
Total: 214
Spread: BOS -2.5
Boston Celtics Injuries
- Marcus Smart - QUEST
Philadelphia 76ers Injuries
- Joel Embiid - QUEST
Boston Celtics NBA DFS Breakdown
Boston took the series lead in Philadelphia with 50 combined points from Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in Game 3, but the guard play for Boston was outstanding. Marcus Smart is questionable as he’s dealing with an ankle sprain, but expectations are he’s going to play. If he doesn’t play, Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon will be two of the highest-rostered plays of the day. If Smart plays, I’d rank them Brogdon, Smart, and White in tournaments. I love Brogdon’s upside when his shot is falling.
The wing minutes have been sured up by Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Grant Williams. Tatum has put up 50+ DKP in six of his last eight games and Brown’s been hovering around 40 DKP/game recently. Tatum is the preferred target and a contrarian option off of the other top spend up’s on the slate (Durant, Booker, Jokic). What’s really interesting here is Grant Williams. Boston has won each of the last two games with Williams playing 20+ minutes in each. In Game 2, Williams knocked down 4-of-8 threes and was a slate-breaker, but in Game 3, he didn’t score at all. He has a LOW floor, but if his shot is falling, he has a chance to stick in the lineup, especially if Marcus Smart’s ankle injury is bothering him.
In the frontcourt, the split is pretty much settled on Al Horford playing anywhere from 30-32 minutes while Robert Williams III fills in the other 16-18 center minutes. Horford’s been incredibly consistent this postseason while Williams’ upside hinges on Joel Embiid putting Horford in foul trouble.
Tier 1 play(s): Jayson Tatum (GPPs), Malcolm Brogdon, Al Horford, Marcus Smart
Tier 2 play(s): Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Grant Williams
Philadelphia 76ers NBA DFS Breakdown
The 76ers could not get anything going in Game 3 and James Harden and Tyrese Maxey shot a combined 7-for-30 from the floor. Harden at least notched 11 assists and six rebounds to make up for his poor shooting just a bit. Both guys have very tough individual match-ups in this series considering how good Boston is at defending guards. Harden is a contrarian spend-up that we know can have ceiling games when his shot is dropping. Maxey is a secondary play for me. An interesting dynamic in Game 3 was De'Anthony Melton playing 30 minutes. Tobias Harris was in foul trouble and P.J. Tucker played just 25 minutes, so Philly turned to Melton a lot here. Could that be the case again in Game 4? His minutes have fallen in the range from 18-to-30 this series, so it’s hard to predict. He does have a massive ceiling if he can get 30 minutes or anything close to it.
At 5.8K, Tobias Harris is lineup filler more than anything. He has not looked great with Joel Embiid back and there’s no reason to think he’s anything more than a fourth option on most nights. Joel Embiid did not look limited last game as he played 39 minutes and put up 60 DKP. He’s $1.1K cheaper than Nikola Jokic who’s coming off 80 DKP. Could be a spot to get to Embiid in tournaments.
Tier 1 play(s): Joel Embiid
Tier 2 play(s): James Harden, De'Anthony Melton, Tyrese Maxey
Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns
Total: 227
Spread: PHX -2.5
Denver Nuggets Injuries
- None
Phoenix Suns Injuries
- Chris Paul - OUT
Denver Nuggets NBA DFS Breakdown
Four times in the last seven postseason games Jamal Murray has put up at least 50 DKP. Denver is 3-1 in those games and is still under 8K for some reason. Murray should have an easier time offensively without being annoyed by Chris Paul defensively here. He’s going to play 40+ minutes and is a fantastic play.
On the wings is where things get interesting for Denver. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is the ultimate pivot off of Bruce Brown who’s been chalky essentially every game this series. KCP has played significantly more minutes per game, but Brown has flashed a more consistent ceiling/floor combination. In Game 2, KCP hit four threes and was in every winning lineup at low ownership. It’s a risk because if he doesn’t make shots, he’s essentially a zero in fantasy. Brown is the only Nugget consistently playing 20+ minutes off the team’s bench.
Michael Porter Jr. coming off a monster 20-point double-double while Aaron Gordon went 3-for-13 last game, so guess where the ownership gravitates to? I like Gordon in a bounce-back spot here and I’m perfectly fine getting to MPJ as well.
Nikola Jokic. That’s the tweet. He’s been amazing and will likely be amazing once again here. Absolutely no problem getting to the Joker coming off back-to-back 30-point games in which he’s put up 73 and 80 DKP. Jokic has put up 70+ DKP in four of his last five playoff games.
Tier 1 play(s): Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray
Tier 2 play(s): Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Bruce Brown
Phoenix Suns NBA DFS Breakdown
If the Suns don’t an absolutely heroic performance out of both Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, they might be down 3-0 in this series, so the question is, can they do it again in Game 4? Cameron Payne was tied for third on the team in scoring with seven points. He played 30 minutes in Chris Paul’s stead and guess what? Paul’s out for Game 4 as well. Payne averaged 1.08 FP/min without CP3 this year. Devin Booker is having an all-time postseason, but expecting him to go 20-25 from the floor on a nightly basis is a tough ask. He’s a great play given the rhythm he’s in, however.
Kevin Durant is as good of a play as it gets on a nightly basis. He’s put up 50+ DKP in four of his last five games and without CP3 he had eight assists in Game 3. The Suns shook their rotation up in Game 3 handing out 26 minutes to T.J. Warren, 25 minutes to Landry Shamet, and 14 minutes to Terence Ross. Warren is the most appealing option of the three but we know both Shamet and Ross could make some shots and find their way into a winning lineup.
What in the world are the Suns going to do with Deandre Ayton here? After checking out at the 4:04 mark in the third quarter in Game 3, he played just 2:22 for the rest of the game. Jock Landale played 13 second-half minutes and almost nine in the fourth quarter. I expect Landale to be popular here especially if this trend of Ayton being benched at the end of games continues.
Tier 1 play(s): Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Cameron Payne, T.J. Warren
Tier 2 play(s): Deandre Ayton, Jock Landale, Landry Shamet
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Player News
Kristaps Porzingis (illness) said after Wednesday’s Game 2 loss to the Knicks that his current stamina issues may be related to the problem that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season.
After an illness limited him to 13 first-half minutes in Boston’s series-opening defeat on Monday, Porzingis came off the bench in Game 2. Unfortunately, he could only give the Celtics 14 minutes. Following the game, Porzingis said his current problem may be related to the upper respiratory ailment that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season. “Probably, probably,” Porzingis said. “I’ve had like ups and downs throughout until this point. Just now, had a big crash. Now, my energy, my everything, hasn’t been good, but who cares? Have to move forward and it will get better from this point.” While Boston’s shot selection was the focus following its two home defeats, Porzingis’ limited availability has also been a factor. He’ll hope to return to full health in time for Game 3 on Saturday afternoon.
Nikola Jokic finished with 17 points (6-of-16 FGs), eight rebounds, six assists, one steal, one block, two three-pointers and six turnovers in Game 2 against the Thunder on Wednesday.
This was Jokic’s worst performance of the postseason, and it came to an end in the third quarter. He fouled out with 1:17 left in the third, which brought his night to a close after he played 32 minutes. OKC was up 41 points when Jokic fouled out, so his night may have been close to over anyway. Jokic dominated Game 1, and the Thunder adjusted. Denver will need other players to step up if they want to have a chance of winning this series, but Jokic will also need to be better than he was in this game.
Michael Porter Jr. struggled on Wednesday and finished with just eight points (2-of-10 FGs), five rebounds, one steal and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Thunder.
MPJ was slightly better in the second half, as all eight of his points came in the third quarter. However, the game was already out of hand at that point after a terrible first half for both Porter Jr. and the Nuggets. MPJ shot 1-of-8 in Game 1, and they’ll need him to be much better moving forward. The series will now shift back to Denver, and MPJ will look to get back on track during the two home games before the series heads back to Oklahoma City.
Russell Westbrook provided a boost off the bench with 19 points (5-of-11 FGs, 8-of-10 FTs), one rebound, five assists and one three-pointer in a 149-106 loss to the Thunder in Game 2 on Wednesday.
Despite an ugly first half for Denver, Westbrook was productive and entered the break with 15 points. He didn’t add much in the second half, though he sat the entire fourth quarter, still it was enough to lead the Nuggets in scoring. Russ has been awesome over Denver’s last five games, and his continued success will be key to the Nuggets winning this series. Though this game was ugly, they still have homecourt advantage in this series. They’ll look to keep it in Game 3 on Friday.
Chet Holmgren recorded a double-double on Wednesday with 15 points (3-of-8 FGs, 7-of-7 FTs), 11 rebounds, two assists, two steals, two blocks and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
After struggling in Game 1, Holmgren bounced back and recorded the fourth postseason triple-double of his career, with three of those coming this season. Aside from Game 3 against Memphis, Holmgren has swatted at least two shots in every game during these playoffs, which was a trend that continued in this game despite him only playing 26 minutes. Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein (14/8/5/1/1) will look to continue to limit Nikola Jokic (17 points) in Game 3 on Friday.
Jalen Williams bounced back on Wednesday with 17 points (6-of-11 FGs), four rebounds, seven assists and two blocks in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
Williams was criticized for his poor performance in the Thunder’s Game 1 loss, but he responded well in OKC’s blowout victory. He was on pace for a bigger night, but he only played 26 minutes and sat the entire fourth quarter due to the lopsided score. He shot the ball much better after shooting 5-of-20 in Game 1, and he’ll need that success to carry over into Game 3 in Denver on Friday.