NBA DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups, Injuries & More Today: Wednesday Playbook

It's looking like we'll have plenty of value options tonight. Luka has a strong chance to be optimal due to raw points, especially if Jokic sits. Massive usage rates, even with LeBron, and his floor seems to be over 50 fantasy points.

47+ fantasy points in 10 of his last 12 games, with usage rates consistently in the mid-20s.

Really curious how ownership will shake out of Jokic or MPJ get ruled out. There is so much value at guard, but Murray will become one of the safest plays on the slate with a true 60-point upside.

Doubt we see more than 30 minutes from D-Lo under any circumstance, but the Nets are sitting a bunch of regulars, including both Cams – which should free up a TON of usage. We've seen D-Lo do a ton of damage in certain situations this season, even with limited playing time. Without both Cams and Dennis Schroder (three of the highest-usage players he's played with as a Net), Russell has averaged a strong 1.32 DKP per minute. 1.32 x 30 minutes projects him for well over 6x value.

Carrington isn't the best per-minute producer, but the Wizards are a nightmare tonight. They're missing a ton of bodies, which puts guys like Carrington squarely in the GPP pool. They're also playing a hopeless version of the 76ers. He should have a clear path to 30+ minutes.

I don't like Shead as much as some of the other options at PG, but that's probably how the public will feel too. However, he's flashed 30-point upside, and if he hits a ceiling game tonight (sans Quickley), he will be owned at a fraction of the ownership compared to someone such as Kevin Porter.

The cheap Wizards will be in a lot of player pools tonight. Jones should see a path to big minutes. He only played a handful of games with the Wiz (and a few games with the Kings across the past couple of seasons), but the organization is tanking (and getting a glimpse of what they may have for the future). Jones averaged a solid 15-4-5 line in 30 MPG in the G-League this season, and let's face it, this is basically a G-League game vs. Philly tonight.

Could become GPP-relevant if Harden sits. Has been seeing solid minutes.

Pretty bad game environment for the Knicks, and there will be a very poor recency bias on the minds of many DFSers after last night's disaster. He did post a horrific usage rate, his lowest since January, but he still played 29 minutes, and I don't see that changing. He has to be in the multi pool, because he can still break the slate at $4,600, and if he's going to check in at lower ownership than the cheap Wizards, that makes him even more appealing.

KPJ is an elite spot without Dame and Giannis. He's shown us a 40-point ceiling this year. KPJ has averaged an insane 1.43 DKP per minute and a 31% usage rate without Giannis, Giannis, and Portis on the floor (across 135 minutes) this season. Big numbers there.

You know it's the spring when we are talking about guys like Colby Jones and AJ Johnson. Johnson has played 27+ minutes in three of his last four games with the tanking Wizards. A 19% usage rate isn't fantastic, but it's enough to get the job done with those kind of minutes. Johnson averaged a solid 14-3-3 in 28 minutes per game in the G-League this year.

Rollins averages 1.08 DKP per minute without Giannis, Portis, and Dame on the floor this season, with a very respectable 25% usage rate in that scenario. He's a good play, and I think you can pair him with KPJ if you wanted to go that route.

If Jokic sits, it may be a battle of value + raw points. LeBron can still challenge the ceiling of Luka, KAT, and the rest of the slate.

Will become GPP-relevant if James Harden sits. Bog has been cutting into his playing time, but Harden's possible void could squash that. The Knicks are not great defensively, and they're on the second leg of a back-to-back. Large-field option only if The Beard sits.

Kuzma has been absolutely miserable as a Buck, and his price has reflected that. Good news is that he's shown us a bit more consistency over the past two weeks or so. Big minutes and 29+ DKP in three of his last four games. I wouldn't be shocked to see him post a 28-30% usage rate against a porous defense. 

Philly is a disgrace, but we've seen a ceiling from Rick. he should have a clear path to minutes. I prefer Justin Edwards, but if you're running like 50 lineups on this slate, a sprinkle does not hurt.

Anytime both Cams are out, that opens up a boatload of usage. If you zoom out, Ziaire has posted 27+ DKP in 5 of his last 8 games, and now he'll be in line for a bigger role vs. a bad team.

A lot of these cheap guards are similar plays, and it's anyone's guess who will outscore one another by a few points. MIL will be without Giannis and Dame, which should open the door for Trent to have an enhanced role. He's popped up for 30+ fantasy points in two of his last three games, and the Bucks will take on a banged-up Denver team, who may be without Jokic and MPJ.

I mean, we are talking about a really large-field dart throw here. But if you see him in the starting lineup for some reason, jam him in. We've seen Martin play a bit in March, and in both games that he's played double-digit minutes (27, 31), he's posted 26 and 20.25 fantasy points, respectively. Disclaimer: he may not literally play, but has upside to be a slate winner at likely low ownership if he does come off the bench. Boy, I love March!

What a large-field GPP play KD is on this fine evening. Brutal matchup, but he is coming off back-to-back 60 bombs, with 34% usage rates or better in his last two games. One of those games was against the rugged Cleveland defense. KD is probably one of the best large-field plays at likely low ownership.

Kawhi has been playing amazing basketball, and he looks fully healthy. If you're looking for someone who will likely not kill your lineup, it's Kawhi. If James Harden sits, Kawhi will probably end up as the top per-dollar mid-spend-up on the slate.

Edwards has been nothing short of incredible in March, and this could be a G-League track meet. $5,700 is such a fair price for someone who has delivered 31+ DKP in his last five games with consistent usage rates in the 20s in a cupcake matchup.

Mogbo does not excite me, but a $4,200 tag does. TOR is without Poeltl and Boucher.

I have no issue with Lopez today. He leads the team in usage bump (7.9%) without Giannis, Dame, and Portis on the floor and averages 1.3 FPPM. If Jokic is out, he could have a field day.

Claxton should see a longer league without Sharpe and get a slight usage uptick without both Cams.

Good to see old man Jordan still thriving. This slate will flip on its head if Jokic/MPJ are out. DO NOT play DJ if Jokic is active. However, even with a price bump to $5K, if Jokic is out, Jordan has another chance to crush and should be squarely in the conversation. It all comes down to when this DEN news will break. If we don't get the news and you're worried about lack of pivots, I am more than fine running Watford or Vuk out there at a similar price.

Watford averages over a FPPM, and the Nets will be without a host of regulars, including Sharpe, which really helps both Watford and Claxton. I think Watrod is one of the better value options as the slate currently stands.

Not every one of these Wizards value guys will get there tonight for us, but I think Vuk stands out. WAS is thin in the front court without George, Gill, and Middleton. Vuk should play backup center minutes and maybe even cameo at PF in this one.