Happy Tuesday, January 21st! We have a five-game NBA DFS main slate on DraftKings and on FanDuel.

We have a 7:30 p.m. ET lock and plenty of injury news that is sure to pop up between now and then, I wasn't in a huge rush to lock anyone into my lineups. Join us in our Discord before lock to hash it out more.

 

 

Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.

  • News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
  • Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
  • Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
  • NBA DFS Projections
  • Lineup Generator
  • NBA Ownership

NBA DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, January 21st

Be sure to like and subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel!

 

 

Pre-Lock Update

This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock. 

Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.

UPDATE - 4:58 p.m. ET

  • Anthony Davis - P

UPDATE - 5:28 p.m. ET

  • Toumani Camara - Q

UPDATE - 5:39 p.m. ET

  • D'Angelo Russell - Available

UPDATE - 6:21 p.m. ET

  • Chris Boucher - OUT
  • Anfernee Simons - IN
  • Robert Williams - IN

UPDATE - 6:32 p.m. ET

  • Tyler Herro - OUT
  • Toumani Camara - OUT
  • Kris Murray - OUT

UPDATE - 6:59 p.m. ET

  • Josh Hart - IN
  • Karl-Anthony Towns - IN
  • Cole Anthony - OUT
  • Jonathan Isaac - IN

UPDATE - 7:03 p.m. ET

  • Gary Harris - OUT
  • Jett Howard - OUT

 

NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 1/21

  • Tyler Herro - Q
  • Paul George - Q
  • Anthony Davis - Q
  • Anfernee Simons.- Q
  • Guerschon Yabusele - Q
  • Andre Drummond - Q
  • Cole Anthony - Q
  • Jonathan Isaac - Q
  • Robert Williams - Q
  • Kris Murray - Q
  • Chris Boucher - Q
  • Gary Harris - D
  • Joel Embiid - OUT
  • Goga Bitadze - OUT
  • Immanuel Quickley - OUT
  • Jalen Suggs - OUT
  • Ziaire Williams - OUT
  • Ben Simmons - OUT
  • Malcolm Brogdon - OUT
  • Caleb Martin - OUT
  • Ochai Agbaji - OUT
  • Kyle Lowry - OUT
 

 

NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews

With the NBA season just kicking off we don't have data yet for teams regarding pace of play and defensive matchups. In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads.

Denver Nuggets vs. Philadelphia 76ers

  • Total: 230.5
  • Spread: Den -12.5

LA Lakers vs. Washington Wizards

  • Total: 228.5
  • Spread: LAL -13

Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic

  • Total: 212.5
  • Spread: ORL -1.5
  • Lowest total on the board, but by far the closest spread.

 

 

 

NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks

Here are the core players I’m looking at for my NBA DFS picks tonight. You can see the full analysis of tonight’s NBA DFS projections and player pool below or skip ahead to building the best lineups possible by locking these into the aforementioned lineup generator now. 

UPDATED: 6:49 p.m. ET

High

  • Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Tyrese Maxey (large-field GPP)

Mid

  • Paolo Banchero (GPP), Austin Reaves, Jakob Poeltl, Wendell Carter Jr., D'Angelo Russell (DK only), Deni Avdija, Jaime Jaquez (large-field GPP), Nikola Jovic (large-field GPP)

Value

  • Kel'el Ware,  Anthony Black, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Duncan Robinson, Robert Williams (DK only GPP), Terry Rozier, Kelly Olynyk (very risky, large-field GPP)

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Pos
(Click to sort ascending)
Player
(Click to sort ascending)
Matchup
(Click to sort ascending)
DK
(Click to sort ascending)
DK Pts
(Click to sort ascending)
FD
(Click to sort ascending)
FD Pts
(Click to sort ascending)
PGTyrese MaxeyPHI @ DEN Tue 10:00990046.6970046.5

The Sixers are massive ‘dogs, but if this game is competitive in the second half, it’ll likely be due to this guy. It's a tough price, but a very small slate that is not littered with 60-point upside guys. He's posted a 30% usage in five of his last 7 games. He's a large-field GPP play, but if PG13 is out, his ceiling is even greater (and so are their chances of getting blown out).

Game Type: GPP
PGTyler HerroPOR @ MIA Tue 7:308300079000

Herro continues to offer a really nice floor, and I think he has a solid ceiling tonight vs. a bad Portland team.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
PGScoot HendersonPOR @ MIA Tue 7:30690036.5670034.8

I think you can throw a dart at Scoot if Simons is in, but let me be clear: there is a drastic difference in my interest in him depending on Simons. If Simons is out, Henderson could turn into a top play. His minutes are secure, he's playing in blowouts, and his usage rate is consistently in the mid-to-high-20s.

Game Type: GPP
PGCole AnthonyORL @ TOR Tue 7:306500065000

It's hard to ignore the tasty matchup if Anthony plays. Paolo back in the lineup could ding his usage a bit.

Game Type: GPP
PGD'Angelo RussellNYK @ BKN Tue 7:30580030.6740029.5

D-Lo is a GPP play, and I like him a lot more on DK. Major price discrepancy between sites. With Ben Simmons out, I'll take 25-30 D-Lo minutes at $5,800.

Game Type: GPP
PGTerry RozierPOR @ MIA Tue 7:30480026.1530025

If Herro is out, I'll have interest in more Miami pieces, mostly including Rozier and Jaquez.

Game Type: GPP
SGAustin ReavesWAS @ LAL Tue 10:30800034.5770033

Reaves had one stinker in a terrible game environment, and I'm willing to let that slide. LA has a huge team total, which should give Reaves a really nice floor/ceiling combo. While I might ultimately be underweight on him if his ownership is crazy, he's in a great spot, and I'll have some for sure.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
SGAnthony BlackORL @ TOR Tue 7:30440028.1490028.1

Black is underpriced (especially on DraftKings) for his current role with the team. No Suggs, Goga, Franz, and Harris is doubtful.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
SGKentavious Caldwell-PopeORL @ TOR Tue 7:30400020.7440021.8

Speaking of the shorthanded Magic, peep KCP's minutes lately. God forbid he hits a few shots vs. a porous defense.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
SGMax Christie4300042000

While I don't love his floor, he's one of the better values early in the day, and it's a terrific matchup. He's playing big-time minutes, and you can get some outlier scores at just $4,300/$4,200 with a few steals and assists.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
SFPaul GeorgePHI @ DEN Tue 10:00810041.1850040.5

If PG13 is in, I really like the price and upside. I can't ignore a 30% usage rate in two of his last three games, and the minutes have been insane, with 35+ in each of his last three appearances. I'll consider bumping him to a core play for GPPs if he's active despite the blowout risk.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
SFRJ BarrettORL @ TOR Tue 7:30770039.4810037.6

Barrett has been very good and has posted a few really great games with Quickley out of the lineup again. Orlando is decimated with injuries, and it might finally be catching up with them, as the Magic rank just 20th in defensive rating across the last five games.

Game Type: GPP
SFDeni AvdijaPOR @ MIA Tue 7:30680036.8690036.6

The same can be said about Deni as Scoot. He's a fine large-field GPP play as it stands if Simons is active. However, if he's out, he is probably one of my priorities on this tiny slate.

Game Type: GPP
SFBilal CoulibalyWAS @ LAL Tue 10:30540023550023.5

Bilal hasn't been great lately, but we're only 3 weeks removed from a few massive ceiling games. He's still averaging a tick under 30 DKP per 36 minutes this year. They'll need his defense against LAL. It's a decent game environment, and Malcolm Brogdon is out. I doubt he'll play 36, but he should hover around 30, and he's cheap enough on a small slate where I'm willing to get plenty of his shares unless more wild value opens up.

Game Type: GPP
SFJaime JaquezPOR @ MIA Tue 7:30510023.8540023.6

If Herro is out, I'll have interest in more Miami pieces, mostly including Rozier and Jaquez.

Game Type: GPP
PFAnthony Davis103000114000

Davis might be my favorite play on FanDuel. We don't have a ton of value right now, and he's much cheaper than Jokic. Washington yields the most fantasy points to centers in the league.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
PFLeBron JamesWAS @ LAL Tue 10:30980050.8990048.5

LeBron just keeps cruising and offering 5-6x upside. LAL has a big team total tonight, and I'll be very interested in LBJ and AD – especially on FanDuel. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
PFPaolo BancheroORL @ TOR Tue 7:30860045880043.9

Paolo might be the most polarizing GPP play tonight. He hasn't hit 30 minutes, but eventually, it's coming. However, even if he plays ~29 again, he's shown an insane usage rate since he's returned, topping 46% in two of those games. Shots will eventually fall, and he could crush due to those usage rates - even in fewer than 30 minutes.

Game Type: GPP
PFAlex SarrWAS @ LAL Tue 10:30550027.6660028.7

Sarr is a DK GPP play at a much better price over there. He's coming off arguably his worst game of the year but smashed 5x in his previous two games. He's a tad inconsistent, but there is still a ton of upside at $5.5 for the kid.

Game Type: GPP
PFNikola JovićPOR @ MIA Tue 7:30490023.3520023.3

Jovic is kind of interesting as it stands, but if Herro doesn't play, there should be a few more ticks to go around. 

Game Type: GPP
CNikola JokićPHI @ DEN Tue 10:001200066.61270064

He's much easier to cram in on DraftKings. Right now, he's a GPP play on FanDuel. There isn't much reliable value, but that could change before lineup lock. He could also go for 80+ and optimal lineups won't be perfect if he breaks the slate.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
CKarl-Anthony TownsNYK @ BKN Tue 7:30970052.21000049.3

I am probably in the minority on this one, but how often do you get a chance for a nearly unowned guy on a 5-game slate with 60-point upside? The matchup isn't even bad. KAT played big minutes in his last game, took 18 shots, and didn't make many of them. Large-field GPP play – and no, you're not crazy for considering him.

Game Type: GPP
CWendell CarterORL @ TOR Tue 7:30590032.3590031.4

Carter has been fantastic lately. Although Paolo is back, Orlando is still quite shorthanded, missing Franz, Suggs, and now Goga, which should solidify massive playing time for WCJ again. Everyone rightfully drools over the centers vs. WAS matchup, but according to FantasyPros, Toronto is just slightly behind in terms of yielding fantasy points to centers, with the second-worst average in the league.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
CKel'el WarePOR @ MIA Tue 7:30420028.3540030.2

It's really difficult to trust Miami right now outside of Herro and Bam. However, if you're looking for a risky GPP plays on a small slate, look no further than Ware, who has suddenly become a big part of the Heat rotation. He's had a few huge spike games, but his minutes have been all over the place. Haywood Highsmith has played just 21 total minutes in his last two games. He's obviously much more appealing at $4,200 on FD. This play has a very wide range of outcome, so buyer, beware. I have not seen Haywood Highsmith on the injury report, so this is very far from a safe play.

Game Type: GPP
CRobert WilliamsPOR @ MIA Tue 7:30300021.2490023

This is a DK-only GPP play. If Williams plays, he should see 15-20 minutes. He's min price on DK, and we've seen him break a slate many times with his high rate of blocked shots.

Game Type: GPP
9900 , 46.6
46.6
9700 , 46.5
46.5

The Sixers are massive ‘dogs, but if this game is competitive in the second half, it’ll likely be due to this guy. It's a tough price, but a very small slate that is not littered with 60-point upside guys. He's posted a 30% usage in five of his last 7 games. He's a large-field GPP play, but if PG13 is out, his ceiling is even greater (and so are their chances of getting blown out).

Game Type: GPP
8300 , 0
0
7900 , 0
0

Herro continues to offer a really nice floor, and I think he has a solid ceiling tonight vs. a bad Portland team.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
6900 , 36.5
36.5
6700 , 34.8
34.8

I think you can throw a dart at Scoot if Simons is in, but let me be clear: there is a drastic difference in my interest in him depending on Simons. If Simons is out, Henderson could turn into a top play. His minutes are secure, he's playing in blowouts, and his usage rate is consistently in the mid-to-high-20s.

Game Type: GPP
6500 , 0
0
6500 , 0
0

It's hard to ignore the tasty matchup if Anthony plays. Paolo back in the lineup could ding his usage a bit.

Game Type: GPP
5800 , 30.6
30.6
7400 , 29.5
29.5

D-Lo is a GPP play, and I like him a lot more on DK. Major price discrepancy between sites. With Ben Simmons out, I'll take 25-30 D-Lo minutes at $5,800.

Game Type: GPP
4800 , 26.1
26.1
5300 , 25
25

If Herro is out, I'll have interest in more Miami pieces, mostly including Rozier and Jaquez.

Game Type: GPP
8000 , 34.5
34.5
7700 , 33
33

Reaves had one stinker in a terrible game environment, and I'm willing to let that slide. LA has a huge team total, which should give Reaves a really nice floor/ceiling combo. While I might ultimately be underweight on him if his ownership is crazy, he's in a great spot, and I'll have some for sure.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
4400 , 28.1
28.1
4900 , 28.1
28.1

Black is underpriced (especially on DraftKings) for his current role with the team. No Suggs, Goga, Franz, and Harris is doubtful.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
4000 , 20.7
20.7
4400 , 21.8
21.8

Speaking of the shorthanded Magic, peep KCP's minutes lately. God forbid he hits a few shots vs. a porous defense.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
4300 , 0
0
4200 , 0
0

While I don't love his floor, he's one of the better values early in the day, and it's a terrific matchup. He's playing big-time minutes, and you can get some outlier scores at just $4,300/$4,200 with a few steals and assists.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
8100 , 41.1
41.1
8500 , 40.5
40.5

If PG13 is in, I really like the price and upside. I can't ignore a 30% usage rate in two of his last three games, and the minutes have been insane, with 35+ in each of his last three appearances. I'll consider bumping him to a core play for GPPs if he's active despite the blowout risk.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
7700 , 39.4
39.4
8100 , 37.6
37.6

Barrett has been very good and has posted a few really great games with Quickley out of the lineup again. Orlando is decimated with injuries, and it might finally be catching up with them, as the Magic rank just 20th in defensive rating across the last five games.

Game Type: GPP
6800 , 36.8
36.8
6900 , 36.6
36.6

The same can be said about Deni as Scoot. He's a fine large-field GPP play as it stands if Simons is active. However, if he's out, he is probably one of my priorities on this tiny slate.

Game Type: GPP
5400 , 23
23
5500 , 23.5
23.5

Bilal hasn't been great lately, but we're only 3 weeks removed from a few massive ceiling games. He's still averaging a tick under 30 DKP per 36 minutes this year. They'll need his defense against LAL. It's a decent game environment, and Malcolm Brogdon is out. I doubt he'll play 36, but he should hover around 30, and he's cheap enough on a small slate where I'm willing to get plenty of his shares unless more wild value opens up.

Game Type: GPP
5100 , 23.8
23.8
5400 , 23.6
23.6

If Herro is out, I'll have interest in more Miami pieces, mostly including Rozier and Jaquez.

Game Type: GPP
10300 , 0
0
11400 , 0
0

Davis might be my favorite play on FanDuel. We don't have a ton of value right now, and he's much cheaper than Jokic. Washington yields the most fantasy points to centers in the league.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
9800 , 50.8
50.8
9900 , 48.5
48.5

LeBron just keeps cruising and offering 5-6x upside. LAL has a big team total tonight, and I'll be very interested in LBJ and AD – especially on FanDuel. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
8600 , 45
45
8800 , 43.9
43.9

Paolo might be the most polarizing GPP play tonight. He hasn't hit 30 minutes, but eventually, it's coming. However, even if he plays ~29 again, he's shown an insane usage rate since he's returned, topping 46% in two of those games. Shots will eventually fall, and he could crush due to those usage rates - even in fewer than 30 minutes.

Game Type: GPP
5500 , 27.6
27.6
6600 , 28.7
28.7

Sarr is a DK GPP play at a much better price over there. He's coming off arguably his worst game of the year but smashed 5x in his previous two games. He's a tad inconsistent, but there is still a ton of upside at $5.5 for the kid.

Game Type: GPP
4900 , 23.3
23.3
5200 , 23.3
23.3

Jovic is kind of interesting as it stands, but if Herro doesn't play, there should be a few more ticks to go around. 

Game Type: GPP
12000 , 66.6
66.6
12700 , 64
64

He's much easier to cram in on DraftKings. Right now, he's a GPP play on FanDuel. There isn't much reliable value, but that could change before lineup lock. He could also go for 80+ and optimal lineups won't be perfect if he breaks the slate.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
9700 , 52.2
52.2
10000 , 49.3
49.3

I am probably in the minority on this one, but how often do you get a chance for a nearly unowned guy on a 5-game slate with 60-point upside? The matchup isn't even bad. KAT played big minutes in his last game, took 18 shots, and didn't make many of them. Large-field GPP play – and no, you're not crazy for considering him.

Game Type: GPP
5900 , 32.3
32.3
5900 , 31.4
31.4

Carter has been fantastic lately. Although Paolo is back, Orlando is still quite shorthanded, missing Franz, Suggs, and now Goga, which should solidify massive playing time for WCJ again. Everyone rightfully drools over the centers vs. WAS matchup, but according to FantasyPros, Toronto is just slightly behind in terms of yielding fantasy points to centers, with the second-worst average in the league.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
4200 , 28.3
28.3
5400 , 30.2
30.2

It's really difficult to trust Miami right now outside of Herro and Bam. However, if you're looking for a risky GPP plays on a small slate, look no further than Ware, who has suddenly become a big part of the Heat rotation. He's had a few huge spike games, but his minutes have been all over the place. Haywood Highsmith has played just 21 total minutes in his last two games. He's obviously much more appealing at $4,200 on FD. This play has a very wide range of outcome, so buyer, beware. I have not seen Haywood Highsmith on the injury report, so this is very far from a safe play.

Game Type: GPP
3000 , 21.2
21.2
4900 , 23
23

This is a DK-only GPP play. If Williams plays, he should see 15-20 minutes. He's min price on DK, and we've seen him break a slate many times with his high rate of blocked shots.

Game Type: GPP