One of my close friends turned 30 yesterday. His sister posted this on Facebook, and it made me laugh: “You are kind of a pain in my butt, but you’re also my best friend. Happy 30th birthday.” I thought the sentiment described my friend perfectly. It also describes my relationship with most of my favorite sports teams.
As a lifelong Chicagoan, I am a fan of the Bulls, Bears, Cubs and Blackhawks. With the exception of the Blackhawks, I can honestly say my other favorite teams are all like close friends who are also a pain in the butt. I love those teams, and few things make me happier than seeing them succeed, which makes all the stupid things they do—like signing Edwin Jackson to a ridiculous four-year, $52 million contract—all the more frustrating.
The most recent bit of frustration came Tuesday when both Patrick Kane and Derrick Rose went down with major injuries. The only saving grace is I don’t own Rose in fantasy—I own Kane, of course—as that would only make his latest knee injury more upsetting.
Mostly I just feel sorry for Derrick Rose. His comeback from two different knee injuries was remarkable, and it is sad to see him suffer another setback. I hope can return for the playoffs as predicted, but more importantly I hope he is able to one day put these injuries behind him and enjoy a long career. We begin this week’s injury breakdown, of course, with Derrick Rose.
It makes me sick to have to discuss another Derrick Rose knee injury. Based on the feedback I have gotten, I know a lot of fantasy players are going to write Rose off completely. That is the correct approach to take for this season, but I wouldn’t be so quick to ignore him in drafts last season. I will be the first to admit it is increasingly likely Rose is never effective again for fantasy, like Brandon Roy before him. I just will not ignore the possibility Rose finally puts the injuries behind him to become a productive—if not elite—player like Grant Hill did. All I am saying is there is a point where I would be willing to take a chance on Rose. A lot could change over the summer, but right now I would probably take Rose around the 10th round in 12-team leagues.
The default fantasy advice this season has been to play Aaron Brooks and Jimmy Butler—especially in DFS—when Rose is out. I’m not so sure that is the case. Both players have had one good game and one bad one since Rose went down, and I worry about them both going forward. Aaron Brooks has actually been slightly better off the bench than as a starter this season, despite playing nearly eight fewer minutes off the bench. I would actually feel better about Brooks if he went back to the bench and Kirk Hinrich started as he did for most of the games Rose missed earlier in the season.
As for Jimmy Butler, I just don’t think he can carry the offense and anchor the defense like he has in the past with Rose out. Butler is still averaging more minutes than anyone in the NBA, and he clearly looks worn down. Obviously if you own him you are starting him, but if your trade deadline hasn’t passed, now is the perfect time to sell high. Butler’s scoring dropped every month before stabilizing a bit in February, and I believe that is a direct result of fatigue. The All-Star break is probably responsible for Butler playing better in February, but I think we will continue to see his performance suffer as the season winds to an end.
Paul George participated in a full practice Thursday, and it looks increasingly likely he will return to the court before the end of the regular season. He has already been added in a lot of 10-team leagues, which seems like a waste of a roster space. We have to expect George to be at least a bit limited upon his return, both in terms of minutes and performance. His potential down the stretch is not worth getting nothing from him for at least two more weeks, likely longer.
If you are holding onto Dwight Howard in anything less than a 14-team league, you are probably making a mistake. Howard is scheduled to undergo a series of MRI beginning Wednesday, after which he may be cleared to begin the next step in his rehab. He will probably miss at least another month, and we are late enough in the season to make Howard droppable in most leagues. Keep in mind his points, rebounds and blocks averages are his lowest since 2006-7.
Kyrie Irving suffered a shoulder strain Thursday and did not play Friday. He will be re-evaluated prior to Sunday’s game, at which point we will hopefully have a better idea of the severity of the injury. Iman Shumpert will probably get most of the point guard minutes if Irving is out though Matthew Dellavedova will inexplicably be involved as well. Neither is a particularly attractive fantasy play.
DeMarcus Cousins missed Friday’s game with hip and ankle injuries, the result of banging with Zach Randolph for 24 minutes Wednesday. We haven’t heard a whole lot regarding either injury, so fantasy players should consider Cousins day-to-day until we learn more. None of Sacramento’s big men has done anything noteworthy with Cousins out, so fantasy owners should look elsewhere.
I almost didn’t even mention LeBron James, so sat out Friday with back soreness. His back was understandably sore after he carried the Cavs with 42 points, 11 rebounds, and five assists against the Warriors Thursday. He should be good to go Sunday at Houston though if he misses that game his fantasy owners would have cause to worry.
Kevin Durant will be reevaluated next week following the latest procedure on his foot. He is too good to drop, and his fantasy owners have to just hold on and hope for the best. We still haven’t gotten an update on Russell Westbrook following the knee he took to the face at the end of regulation Friday though I’m not particularly worried. If Westbrook is out for any length of time, D.J. Augustin is a must-add in most formats. Augustin proved with the Bulls and Pistons he can score in bunches when the starting point guard is out, and the fact the Thunder don’t really run an offense just means Augustin will have the ball in his hand a ton. There is also a slight chance Dion Waiters could finally break out if Durant and Westbrook are both out though I wouldn’t be in too much of a hurry to play Waiters in most formats.
On Sunday we learned Anthony Davis would miss 1-to-2 weeks with a sprained right shoulder and Ryan Anderson would miss 2-to-4 weeks with a sprained right MCL. Anderson is droppable in most formats, while Davis’s fantasy owners need to stash him on the bench. In the three games Davis has missed, Alexis Ajinca has averaged 16.7 points, seven rebounds and two blocks while Omer Asik has averaged 10.3 points, 11.3 rebounds and 1.3 blocks. Ajinca is the better fantasy play of the two moving forward, and he is available in far more leagues than Asik.
Blake Griffin had the cast and stitches removed from his right elbow Monday, but he is still at least a week away, likely more. He is another player who needs to be owned even though his return is not imminent.
Enes Kanter did not play Friday due to a thigh contusion he suffered in overtime of the Thunder’s loss to the Suns Thursday. There has been little news to this point regarding Kanter’s injury, and he should be considered day-to-day until we learn more. Mitch McGary had 20 points and nine rebounds Friday, and he is a very strong fantasy play while Kanter and Steven Adams are out. Adams returned to practice Friday as his initial three-week timetable nears its end. The Oklahoma City front court will be very crowded when everyone is healthy, and while Nick Collison will probably be the odd man out, Steven Adams will likely see a drop in fantasy production as well. He should be dropped in 12-team leagues, if he hasn’t been already.
Darren Collison will undergo surgery to repair a core muscle injury, likely ending his season. Andre Miller and Ray McCallum will continue to split point guard duties in Sacramento. Miller has averaged 6.5 points, 4.3 assists and 4.0 rebounds in four games in Sacramento, while McCallum has averaged 12.0, 3.8 and 3.3. McCallum played a season-high 36 minutes Friday, and he could take on a larger and larger role as the season winds down. McCallum is the better fantasy play of the two, though Miller should continue to have deep-league value in Sacramento.
As we get closer and closer to the end of the season, fantasy players are going to face difficult decisions about whether to hold onto injured stars in the hopes they will return and are productive. As you may have guessed from my advice above, I usually lean towards dropping those players and guaranteeing production, even it is it limited, rather than hoping a player doesn’t have a setback and is 100 percent upon returning. After all, there are also some injury replacements who can help out your team for a week or two.