Welcome back to another edition of the Fantasy Alarm NBA DFS Value Vault! We have a small three-game slate for the NBA Playoffs for this Wednesday, so let’s see what kind of value we can come up with!
DRAFTKINGS
1.) Danuel House ($5,500) – House was in my last value vault, and he will likely continue to be placed in this article until his price is above the $6k price tag. Let’s face it, we know this guy isn’t likely going to put up 50 fantasy points in any game during the playoffs, but what he does provide, and has provided is a very safe floor, one that has teetered around the 30 DK fantasy point mark, at least that is what he is averaging over the first four games against the Thunder. He has played 38, 42, and 39 minutes in the last three, and he has had to be one of the bigger offensive influencers with Russell Westbrook being out for this first series. He is a great source of points, specifically three-pointers which helps on DK, and he should have two double-doubles with rebounds over his last four as well but was one board shy in Game 2. As long as his price is around this number, I will be plugging him. He is a staple play.
2.) D.J. Augustin ($4,800) – I know most are looking and saying, really bruh? Yea, I get it, he was a total dud last game. However, what most likely didn’t see is that he only took six shots, and only made two of those shots. The Magic were way down late, and this hurt his fantasy value as they were just chucking up three's after just trying to close a very large gap. This hurts Augustin’s game, as he is a distributor. If he can’t set up the offense to make passes for easy buckets, or see the ball move around a little so he can get a good look for a shot, he isn’t going to have a great game. It seems like a zig-zag theory a little here with his production over this series, as we have seen 34.3 DK points in Game 1 (magic won), followed by 19 DK points in Game 2 (blow-out), then 35.8 DK points in Game 3 (close game), and lastly, 13.8 in Game 4 (blow-out). Now, I know everyone, and their brother are going to jump ship on Augustin after last game, as he was actually quite chalky around 30% for Game 4, but I think Magic try to win this game, I mean it is the closer game for MIL, and I think game theory is on Augustin’s side here, so get him at a discount and much lower-ownership today.
3.) Mario Hezonja ($3,500) – While everyone rushes to roster Anfernee Simons at $4k price today, we will look a bit deeper into this Blazer’s roster. Not only do we get quite a price savings on Hezonja, I think we get a much more potential value play here as well, compared to Simons. Simons could likely get the start for the injured Damian Lillard tonight, and I have one rule in NBA, that is never play a guy who switches his role on the spot. This instance would be where Simons switches from a bench player to a starter in one game. Simons did get 25 minutes in Game 4 with Dame leaving the game, and he wasn’t exactly productive, only putting up 18.3 DK points in that span with three points, five boards, and six assists. Seems like a good stat-line but wouldn’t have even hit value at this price. Now, Hezonja also played 19 minutes (and I get it was a blow-out), and put up 11 points, six boards, two dimes and a steal, which was good for 24 DK fantasy points. With the absence of Dame, I think we could see a little more of Hezonja on the 2nd unit to match the size of LAL. It is a risky play, but at the price, if he is given 18-22 minutes, he should get value if not exceed it.
FANDUEL
1.) Kyle Kuzma ($5,500) – Look, I don’t love this price on Kuzma at all, but seeing as how PF on FD is a total waste-land, we have to try to be a bit open-minded here. Kuzma saw 21 minutes in Game 4 with the blow-out and put up 18 points, two boards, and two dimes. With Dame already being ruled out, this POR team is very thin, and I don’t really think they have what it takes to keep this game relatively close tonight. With that said, Kuz could once again be in line for some added usage as the stars should get some much-needed rest in this game in the event, more so IF and WHEN they get a big lead. I don’t see POR hanging around long, and this should add some value onto Kuzma tonight.
2.) Evan Fournier ($5,400) – We all know Fournier has been pretty dreadful so far in this series, but he took a big step last game and was way more active. Again, I know it was likely urgency due to being down quite a bit, but even in the blow-out, he played 36 minutes and put up 12 points, eight boards, three assists, a steal, and TWO swats in route to 34.1 FD points. The Magic desperately need scoring, and during the regular season, he was one of their main contributors in that category. Hopefully, Game 4 was a bit of a confidence booster for him, and it wasn’t exactly a good shooting day, as he still only went 4-for-14 from the field, but the counting stats in multiple categories is the intriguing part, something he was not doing in the first three games. I hate having two magic in this article, but I feel they are the leverage once again today in tournaments.
3.) Luguentz Dort ($4,000) – His price moved up $500 on FD, but it’s a risk we are still willing to take on Dort today, as the Thunder love this kid for his defense. Dort played another large number of minutes in Game four, seeing 35 for the day. He only put up 19 FD points on nine points, five boards, two dimes, and a steal, but his shooting woes did not improve much, as he shot only 3-of-10 from the field, and nine of those shots were 3-point shots. With that said, I obviously don’t mind using Dort on DK at his $4.2k price either, as his three-point value is more valuable on there, however, his defense, as he has 4 blocks and a steal in the last two games, will help his value on FD. If he can get the shots to go down a bit more today, he should be able to exceed both of these price tags, as we know he is going to see lots of minutes once again for the Thunder.