Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets
Spread: DEN -1.5
O/U: 220.5
Injuries
Utah
Donovan Mitchell - QUEST
Derrick Favors - QUEST
Trent Forrest - OUT
Elijah Hughes - OUT
Denver
Jamal Murray - PROB
PJ Dozier - OUT
Greg Whittington - OUT
Defense vs. Position (DvP)
UTA - 5th vs. PG / 16th vs. SG / 8th vs. SF / 7th vs. PF / 9th vs. C
DEN - 15th vs. PG / 26th vs. SG / 13th vs. SF / 1st vs. PF / 2nd vs. C
MVP/CPT
It’s obviously not an easy match-up, but the triple-double upside Jokic brings to the table is bar none. It’s actually been eight games since we’ve gotten one, but the point remains, when a guy is averaging 25.7 points, 11.7 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game, he’s a triple-double threat. Even without the triple-double he put up 61 DKP last time out and has eclipsed 60 in three-of-four. These two have already squared up this year and Jokic poured it on Rudy Gobert scoring 35 points, falling one assist shy of a triple-double and posting 72 DKP. There’s 100 point upside in the captain spot.
We saw what Conley can bring to the table without Donovan Mitchell last time out and despite the fact that Mitchell hasn’t been ruled out, he’s missed two straight and Utah has won both, so it's possible that they continue to hold him out. Conley put up 46.75 DKP last time out, falling just one assist shy of a double-double. Conley has a 24.1% USG rate and averages 1.15 FP/min without Mitchell this season. He’s a lock-and-load if Mitchell doesn’t play.
Early foul trouble hurt Gobert but it didn’t help that his team blew the doors off Dallas while he was out, leading to just 25 minutes of action. He still put up a double-double and 35.5 DKP in those 25 minutes, however. Gobert has been a machine without Mitchell this season posting 1.45 FP/min. He was OK in the first meeting against Nikola Jokic but he hadn't gone into that game playing the way he is now. This is a different version.
Mid-Tier
If you just scroll through Murray’s box score you can see the inconsistencies glaring through as he gives us 45 DKP and then 22 DKP with regularity. He is a GPP play through and through but he has averaged 37 DKP/game over his last five. His 23.8% USG rate is second on the team and is .92 FP/min is very solid as well.
Another Jazz player that benefits tremendously from Mitchell being off the floor, Clarkson just missed shots last time out and that’s all there was to it. Clarkson went 5-for-16 from the floor but still scored 18 actual points, 28 DKP and played 30 minutes. He’s more contrarian if Mitchell plays, but still an option with how much he can score in a short period of time.
Michael Porter Jr.
Why did MPJr only see 18 minutes the last time Denver took the floor? Does that make sense to, well, anybody? When on the court, it’s nothing but production from Porter as he’s posted a 22.2% USG and averages 1.21 FP/min. The three games prior in which they give him 25+ minutes, they win, so we should expect extensive run out of Porter here. He is perfect for showdown slates and his ownership should remain pretty low here.
Value Tier
Look, we’re not getting a high usage player at all. There have been games that he plays 40 minutes and takes five shots i.e literally on Friday. O’Neale still stuffed the box score grabbing 11 rebounds, three assists, two blocks and a steal on his way to 27.75 DKP. That’s what he brings to the table and he’s actually topped 23 DKP in three straight.
It’s been well documented that Millsap just plays better in Denver and has since arriving in town. He averages .88 FP/min this year and that spikes to .96 at home. He’s been able to play more minutes (24 MPG compared to 22 on the road) and simply produce better outings. JaMychal Green has surpassed him in price and that feels like a mistake in this spot.
This is a risky dart throw, let me preface the rest of this blurb with that. He played a season-high 21 minutes and scored 12 points, grabbed seven rebounds and came away with three steals his last time out. Very clearly his best game as a pro. He’s a talented guy, he just needs the chance. If Derrick Favors is ruled out again Morgan could possibly see 20 minutes again.