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Los Angeles Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans
Spread: LAC -6
Over/Under: 232.5
Injuries
Clippers
Patrick Beverley - OUT
Pelicans
JJ Redick - OUT
MVP/CPT
This is one of the best match-up’s for the Clippers or for any team in the league as the Pelicans play NO defense at all. They’re 28th in DRtg as a team and 26th against small-forwards specifically. Leonard put up 52 DKP his last time out and put up 53 against the Pelicans in their lone meeting this year. Leonard has 50 in him here and maybe even a 60 bomb.
If you want to know how good of a fantasy producer George is, just look at the fact that he’s shot below 40% in two of his last three games and in each of them he’s scored at least 36 DKP. When his shot fell against Boston, he scored 32 actual and 47 DKP. The Pelicans are 25th against the SG position this year. PG13 put up 46.5 DKP against NOLA in their lone meeting this season.
Before his last two games, there was a six game span in which Zion put up 45+ DKP and that’s the floor he has given us for a month or so now. He also has flashed mid-50’s in terms of ceiling and on a one-game slate we need as much upside as we can get. I love Williamson ceiling/floor combination on a one-game slate and to be a little contrarian, because I’m sure the Clippers guys’ will be the chalk, Williamson is your man.
Mid-Tier
With Patrick Beverely out, Williams should see more run at the helm as he runs the offense in this contest. It’s a fantastic match-up and we’ve seen the minutes more consistently in the mid-20’s. He has massive upside even in that little time due to his ability to put the ball in the hoop. He’s put up 23+ DKP in 4-of-5.
There has been a slight downtick in production recently for Ball, but they were in blow outs the two games straight so we’ll give him a pass. Ball has a respectable 19.5% USG and averages .97 FP/min this season. Ball’s improvements from three-point range have made him extremely dangerous offensively when his shot is falling. With no Pat Bev on the other side of the floor, this could be one of those evenings.
He has not needed a lot of time lately to dominate while on the floor. Adams has back-to-back double-doubles including 17 rebounds in just 21 minutes last time out. Adams hasn’t topped 30 minutes since February 24th, so we shouldn’t expect him to now. That said, that shouldn’t deter us from playing him in his current form.
Value Tier
Jackson is starting in place of the injured Patrick Beverley and Jackson has played 23+ minutes in three straight games. He’s even put up 40 FP in one of those three, showing us what type of upside he has when his shot is falling. Jackson should be able to get us a floor of 20 FP if he hovers around the 25-28 minute mark.
NAW is getting a slightly larger role with JJ Redick out and he’s taken full advantage of that. He’s scored 10+ actual points and 19.5+ DKP in three straight games and in all three he’s played at least 23 minutes and has taken 10 or more shots. The Clippers are 24th against shooting-guard this season.
Hayes has leapfrogged Wily Hernangomez as the team's backup center but with Steven Adams not playing more than 25 minutes very often, Hayes is seeing a consistent amount of playing time. He topped 20 minutes in 2-of-3 and double-figures in six straight. He’s one of the better values of the slate.