Dallas Mavericks & Sacramento Kings
Over/Under: 223.5
Spread: DAL -5.5
Luka Doncic and the Mavericks take on Buddy Hield and the Kings in a late-night showdown!
Injuries:
*Luka Doncic – Probable (elbow)
*De'Aaron Fox – Out
*Kristaps Porzingis – Doubtful (ankle)
*Dorian Finney-Smith – Probable (leg)
*Josh Richardson – Doubtful (hamstring)
*Marvin Bagley III – Questionable (hand)
*Maxi Kleber – Questionable (back)
*JJ Redick - Out
Player Breakdown:
CPT/MVP
Luka Doncic DAL ($18,600)
If Doncic suits up, the answer is easy here tonight. But, why would we ever get easy. To say this slate is a cloudy mess would be an understatement. What we do know though, is that Doncic is clearly the best player available against a Sacramento team that struggles against opposing point guards. Doncic is dealing with an elbow bruise and this is the start of a busy week (five games) for the Mavericks who also play tomorrow night. If he doesn’t play tonight, the pivot is Jalen Brunson (more on him later) as he would be the clear beneficiary.
Harrison Barnes SAC ($13,500)
With no Fox, the Kings will have to look elsewhere for offense, but let’s not over think things with Barnes. The forward has been a consistently solid option for Sacramento all season and in his last five games, he is averaging 20.6 points per game. I’m not sure that Barnes has the upside to take him much past 40 DK points, but he shouldn’t fall much short of that mark either as he is a consistent multi-category contributor.
Dwight Powell DAL ($6,000)
With Porzingis not playing, Powell’s value skyrockets. On Saturday, he took full advantage of his opportunity with 25 points and nine rebounds in 28 minutes of play. Now that we know what he is capable of, don’t expect it all the time, but he should find his way to close to 20 minutes of playing time with all of Dallas’ injury woes. And we certainly can’t argue with this price.
MID-TIER
Tyrese Haliburton SAC ($8,000)
With no Fox, Haliburton is elevated into the starting lineup and can essentially run wild putting his full array of skills on display. Starting certainly agreed with the rookie as he scored 24 points in 37 minutes of play against Golden State while also handing out eight assists. A duplication of those efforts is a very reasonable expectation for tonight.
Buddy Hield SAC ($8,600)
If we are going to talk about the opportunities available in Sacramento due to Fox’s absence, we can’t ignore Hield. His value is based on the volume of his field goal attempts (and also his efficiency) but it’s hard to argue with what we have seen from him in his last two games. Hield followed up a 29 points performance (11-of-16 from the field) with 25 points against the Warriors on Sunday (9-of-13 shooting) while grabbing six rebounds in each game., He has been shooting well, especially from downtown, so let’s bank on that continuing tonight.
Dorian Finney-Smith DAL ($6,600)
With no Porzingis and Finney-Smith appearing to be good to go, let’s go back to the well here. Finney-Smith has proven to be a solid option with 30-to-40-point upside as of late, but he has one less barrier to deal with tonight. On Saturday, he scored 21 points and grabbed seven rebounds in 32 minutes of play and there is no reason not to expect a repeat performance.
DART THROWS
Jalen Brunson DAL ($5,400)
Defensively, this is a great match-up for Brunson who truly could benefit if Doncic is held out tonight. Regardless, Brunson will likely play a large role for Dallas as you would think they would want to at least be conservative with their stud point guard. Brunson’s main value comes from his offense, he can score 20 points with ease given the opportunity, but he’ll also chip in a few rebounds and assists.
Mo Harkless SAC ($3,600)
Harkless is in the starting lineup and plays about 30 minutes a game, so how can we knock that? The problem though is that from a DFS perspective, Harkless is simply too inconsistent in all aspects of his game while flashing his 30 to 35 DK point upside on occasion.
Tim Hardaway Jr DAL ($4,800)
Hardaway is one of the few Dallas players without a questionable tag tonight, so that is a plus. He will be one of the first players off the bench for Dallas at a minimum, but there are some concerns. The value here is dependent on his shot falling, and despite getting the start on Saturday all we got out of Hardaway was 12.5 DK points in 30 minutes of play. That is what happens though when you shoot two of 13 from the field.