NBA DFS Position Coach: March 8, 2016

So quite some time ago I met young woman 10 years younger than I. Her name was Jennifer. She had four really young girls when I met her. All of my friends and some family (and probably some of you as well) all thought I was crazy when I proposed to her. A question I still ponder at times. I mean what kind of guy ties himself down to a monster task like a woman and her four kids? I do.

My mother had four brothers and sisters and I was an only child. At times growing up in Los Angeles (ask Kenneth Le he lives in the same hood I grew up in, oddly enough) in my area, it was better to stay indoors. While most were joining gangs I was playing little league (horribly), skateboarding, and listening to Vin Scully on the radio each night with my scorecard I used to make from scratch with a ruler in front of me. When I wasn’t doing this I was sorting baseball cards, something I used to spend every penny of my allowance on…and still do. Needless to say I was a chubby lonely Irish-Italian kid who was a terrible skateboarder and looked like the catcher from the “Bad News Bears”. I did not have a girlfriend, I did not have a ton of friends, and I did not have any brothers and sisters. Something I very much wanted.

Who knows? Maybe my own issues are why I settled down and took on a woman with four little girls. This was years ago now. I have basically raised these kids and all of them for the most part call me Dad, except for one that never does, but it’s up to her. Today I found out my wife is pregnant. This is going to be my first child. Although I never had the big family I dreamed of growing up I do now, and all the craziness and turmoil that comes with it. I even added a crazy cat that stalks me to the mix a year ago. And now a little Jerry. I hope. I live with five woman right now, the thought of another… Oh, boy.

We have a nice six game slate tonight and just taking a quick stab it took a matter of moments to build a good cash game lineup. So cash games are on the table for me tonight. Unless a team rests their entire bench I see little need on this slate to hunt down or take too much risk chasing “value”. We have no superstars over 10k to choose from and tons of great options at all the positions but one on FanDuel.

My exposure is to DFS NBA is shrinking each day as my eagerness to start DFS MLB is kicking into high gear. To be honest if it was not for this article I would skip it all together I think. I will not write an article about DFS and not play it. Too many do, I will not.

So with a little Jerry Colvin (please for the love of god) baking in the oven I bring you today’s Position Coach Article.

Point Guard

Strategy

Tonight at point guard you have a bevy of options to choose from. In cash games I would pair one of the more expensive players with a mid-priced player in a great matchup. A theme that will go quite a long way today across the various positional slots. In GPPs I would try either getting in two of the top players or fade them all completely and go two mid-priced players.

Players

We have three top tier options to choose from tonight. Kyle Lowry, John Wall, and Chris Paul. They all score so similar in my model today that regardless of who you choose I expect very similar numbers out of them as they all kind of have the same ceiling and floor.

Of the three, the player I am rostering tonight is Damian Lillard. The fact is he has the highest usage rate and the least amount of scoring viable players on his team. It is either him or McCollum for the most part. This game has a high 213 expected point total and Portland is 5.5-point favorites at home. To me this does matter in the NBA. I expect this game to be a back-and-forth affair tonight and in his last 10 games Lillard has managed to score over 40 fantasy points five times including one 50 and 70 point performance versus the Warriors and Raptors. The Wizards are allowing the 16^th most fantasy ppg to point guards which could be better and to me he is the better choice on a slate where the top three could all be the same guy. Keep in mind though the last time Lillard and John Wall faced each other they both had lackluster nights.

D’Angelo Russell is the player I am rostering with Lillard tonight. His price still remains low in my opinion at $5,900 on FanDuel and not much higher across the industry. He benefits from a great matchup at home facing a Magic team allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to point guards. In five out of his last six games he has managed to score over 30 fantasy points five times with one over 40 and the others very close. Orlando is only favored by three points tonight and this game is tied with the Wizards-Trailblazers game for the highest expected point total of the night at 213.5.

Looking to get off the chalk a little? Emmanuel Mudiay has been putting up monster games and with most gravitating towards Russell in this price range his ownership should be low. Mudiay is averaging over 40 fantasy ppg in his last three and is playing heavy minutes to boot. The Nuggets are 3.5-point favorites tonight at home facing a Knicks team allowing the 18^th most fantasy ppg to point guards. This matchup is a little tougher than his last three but when a guy is on fire he is on fire. The expected point total is decent at 205.5 and I honestly believe Mudiay is a great GPP play tonight.

You already should have known this was coming. The “Mack Daddy”, or Shelvin Mack still is the minimum salary on FanDuel. I will say it again, as long as his usage rate stays high (21.8), his minutes stay consistent (near 30), and his price stays this cheap (under 4k) I will roll out a Mack Daddy infused GPP every time. Utah is only 1.5-point favorites tonight at home facing an Atlanta team that is going to give them a run for their money. I do not call these things often but I really smell overtime here tonight. Who’s down with the Mack?

Shooting Guard

Strategy

Not much for big guns at the two tonight. We have several cheaper players in good matchups and I will be taking the safest approach possible at this position tonight.

Players

DeMar DeRozan is the top play tonight at the two for a few reasons. First he has the highest usage rate on the slate at the two and he has a great matchup with the Nets allowing the 20^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. He has the highest ceiling and a price so similar to C.J. McCollum that I would rather spend up for the upside with DeRozan. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in eight of out his last 10 games hitting the 40 mark versus the Timberwolves twice and the Trailblazers. If you are spending high this is where to do it.

The player I am currently using in my cash game lineup tonight is Victor Oladipo. The Lakers are allowing a ton of fantasy points to everyone. Even the guy who sells the foam fingers has managed to score a double-double this season filling in for the Sixers (I am kidding). The Lakers are however allowing the third most fantasy ppg to the two and Oladipo has managed to score over 30 fantasy in six of his last nine games going over 40 twice.

On FanDuel you could also pair him with Evan Fournier who is cheap facing the same Lakers team allowing the fifth most fantasy ppg to the three.

I cannot believe I am writing about Gary Harris. That is the crap that is being thrown out there at us in the NBA. Gary Harris. I well imagine the DFS NBA scene will be crickets at first pitch. Harris however is producing and playing plenty of minutes with Wil Barton coming off the bench. Harris has managed to score over 20 fantasy ppg now in eight out his last 10 games. He even has a 30 shot thrown in. The matchup is not great with the Knicks allowing the 13^th most fantasy ppg to the two but for the price at $5,000 on FanDuel he is well worth the risk and is cash game viable.

Markel Brown has back-to-back games now where he has scored over 25 fantasy points and he is beating out Wayne Ellington for minutes off the bench. The Raptors are allowing the 15^th most fantasy ppg to the two which could be better but for the near minimum industry wide why not take a chance on a player who has scored 40.1 and 27.7 fantasy points on FanDuel in his last two games. A great GPP play and I may even have some cash game exposure to him by nights end.

*Garrett Temple could be a great play with Beal out, just saying. He does however just miss the position coach parameters in my model.

Small Forward

Strategy

Unless you are playing on DraftKings or a site that is a little better than FanDuel at keeping players in the right spots you have three choices as far as I am concerned tonight. Unless some kind of great value pops, and I cannot see any at this time, you have no choice. Stack this position to ensure the most points or be left behind in cash games.

Players

With little to spend up on across the slate I see no way you do roster Carmelo Anthony tonight. He has the second highest usage rate on the slate among small forwards and has scored over 40 fantasy points in eight out of his last 10 games going over the 50 mark versus the Wizards on Feb. 9^th. The matchup is not great with Denver allowing the 14^th fewest fantasy ppg to the three but this sways me off of him little. He is the best small forward on the slate and if you do not roster him then you need to at least pair the next two players.

The guy I have sitting next to Melo tonight is Kawhi Leonard. With little reliable small forwards to choose from I see no way you do not load up at this position tonight. The Spurs are heavy favorites as usual but it seems to hamper Leonard’s fantasy production little as he has scored over 40 fantasy points in five of his last seven games even putting up a 50-spot versus the Pelicans. The Timberwolves are allowing the 20^th most fantasy ppg to the three and Leonard should feast as usual tonight.

I am only offering you three small forwards today and this one is the least favorite of them. Gordon Hayward has the highest usage rate on the Jazz and is the next safest play at the three besides the two above. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg (notice we are talking 30 now and not 40) in seven out of his last 10 games hitting the 40 mark twice versus the Rockets and Nets. Even though this game has the lowest expected point total of the night I still feel it is going to OT.

Power Forward

Strategy

We have more options at the four tonight than we did at the three and I elect to go mid-priced players in great matchups tonight here. In GPPs you could try to force in one of the most expensive players like a Derek Favors or Paul Millsap. I however will not be using any of them as I feel you will get the same numbers for five-to-six thousand that you will get for seven-to-nine thousand tonight at this spot.

Players

If you are going to pay up thae LaMarcus Aldridge is the way to go. Although Favors has been red hot I find him to inconsistent for his price, Kristaps Porzingis is a little beat up, and Paul Millsap is facing Utah. This leaves Aldridge sitting at the top of the pile in an unfavorable matchup himself with the Timberwolves allowing the ninth fewest fantasy ppg to the four. Aldridge is however averaging well over 40 fantasy ppg in his last four and is the cheapest of the three. I prefer him in a stars and scrubs if you can build one tonight GPP.

Aaron Gordon was the first player I inserted into my cash game lineup at the four tonight. As I always point out whenever any team faces the Lakers you have a fantasy cash register. Just look at what Golden State did to them the other night. Wait…that was a Twilight Zone episode right? Regardless of the Lakers play the other night (and they are getting better) the defense is still atrocious. The Lakers are allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to the four and Gordon has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in eight of his last ten games. I am all aboard the Gordon train.

Kenneth Faried for the price is about as electric as it gets right now. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in five of his last six games hitting the 50 mark in 36-minutes versus the Mavericks on Sunday night where he accumulated 25-points and 20-rebounds. The Knicks defend the four well allowing the seventh fewest fantasy ppg but I suspect a banged up elven lord (Kristaps Porzingis) will be able to do little to stop him tonight.

Marcus Morris is a nice cheap option tonight who is in a great matchup. This is the only exposure I will have to this game tonight from the Washington side of things. Morris is starting to come into his own in the Wizards offense averaging 30 minutes over his last two games and over 20 fantasy ppg as well. Most nights nowadays I aim for players who are nearing 30 fantasy ppg but tonight I really feel 20 is a safe number. I do not expect crazy scores over 400 tonight. For the price Morris is a great cash game and GPP play.

If you really want to take some risk tonight the Lakers are starting to let some of the bench players get some run with most of the starters banged up and the season over. Brandon Bass has played over 25-minutes in three straight and is averaging well over 20 fantasy ppg in this span. The Magic are allowing the 19^th most fantasy ppg to the four on the season and for the minimum to near minimum salary across the industry he is worth a look for that GPP play.

Center

Strategy

Not a ton of options even though it looks like there is. We have great players tonight who are either in bad matchups or playing decreased minutes. I am going mid-priced tonight at center and taking some risk.

Players

Robin Lopez for the price remains one of the finer plays of the night. The Nuggets defend the frontcourt terribly allowing the 20^th most fantasy ppg to the center position and Lopez has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in four of his last eight even hitting the 40 mark versus a much tougher Timberwolves team on Feb. 20^th. I have a feeling old Kristaps is going to sit tonight and they are going to lean on Melo and Lopez to get it done. I still will play him even if Porzingis plays, but in GPP or I will use his brother.

The other center I will be using as of right now is Mason Plumlee. I really wanted to get two players from the Portland side of things into the mix tonight and Plumlee is a great option for the price. Even though I usually only use him in great matchups tonight I am making an exception. You see, even though the Wizards are allowing the 12^th fewest fantasy ppg to the center position Plumlee went off against them in his last game scoring 10-points, 11-rebounds, and seven-assists in 24 minutes of play. Why not again considering he averages around 25-minutes per game.

Core Players

Cash core: Damian Lillard, Victor Oladipo, Kawhi Leonard, and Carmelo Anthony

GPP core: Kyle Lowry, Damian Lillard, Gordon Hayward, Carmelo Anthony, & LaMarcus Aldridge

Good luck.

Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73

GO DODGERS!