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Tonight’s Strategy
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This article is focusing on the Main slate tonight for the following reasons: The Early slate has only two games. I find, more often than not, that when playing on this slate, I end up in a tie with a ton of people, winning back $1.37 on a $5 entry. As far as the All-Day slate goes, the payouts are so low it’s not worth it, in my opinion.
With Ryan Anderson out with the stomach flu, we need to keep an eye out that the whole Rockets team does not get decimated by it. I would hate to find out James Harden is sick after lineups lock. With that problem looming, enhanced by a bad match-up against a good defensive team in Memphis, I am fading Houston tonight.
As always, all fantasy ppg numbers are FanDuel specific.
With Saturday burning by with the quickness, I bring you today’s Position Coach Article.
Point Guard
Kemba Walker tops my list tonight at PG facing a Nets team allowing the most fantasy ppg to the position. He also is averaging over 38 fantasy ppg over his last three games. Charlotte being a huge favorite does not scare me off. For a team to blow out another one, some players must go off.
Mike Conley has also been red-hot lately. How hot? Over his last eight games, he is averaging nearly 40 fantasy ppg and is now facing a Houston team he dropped a 37-spot on in their last match-up.
Tyler Johnson, besides being a great value on DK, dropped 33-fantasy points on Milwaukee the last time they met. He should be a good, low-owned play tonight on this huge slate.
With Chris Paul out and the Nuggets allowing the second most fantasy ppg to the PG position, both Austin Rivers and Raymond Felton become great plays.
Rivers is averaging around 25 fantasy ppg over his last four which has a nice consistency.
Felton is averaging nearly 30 fantasy ppg in his last two and is a great price on both FD and Aces while being a bit high on DK.
| FD | DK | Aces | YTD | |||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | 3PT/G | Pts/G | Reb/G | Ast/G | Stl/G | Blk/G | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $FA | |
| Kemba Walker | CHA | H | BKN | 42 | 33.7 | 83% | 2.9 | 23.2 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 47% | 29.02% | 36.9 | 39.7 | 37.2 | 38.4 | $7900 | $8000 | $5850 |
| Mike Conley | MEM | H | HOU | 33 | 32.4 | 86% | 2.3 | 19 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 44% | 26.07% | 33.9 | 36.4 | 34.1 | 35 | $7700 | $7400 | $5600 |
| Tyler Johnson | MIA | H | MIL | 40 | 31 | 75% | 1.4 | 14.2 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1 | 43% | 20.71% | 27.1 | 28.5 | 27.3 | 27.7 | $6100 | $5300 | $5100 |
| Austin Rivers | LAC | A | DEN | 42 | 26.5 | 72% | 1.4 | 11.2 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 44% | 19.43% | 17.8 | 19.3 | 17.9 | 18.5 | $5400 | $5900 | $4250 |
| Raymond Felton | LAC | A | DEN | 42 | 21.6 | 77% | 0.7 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 45% | 16.74% | 15.4 | 16.4 | 15.6 | 15.8 | $4600 | $5700 | $3800 |
Shooting Guard
With the Nets allowing the most fantasy ppg to the two, combined with my plans on fading Harden tonight, I will be rostering Nicolas Batum in my main lineup. He has been a bit cold lately, but I look for him to heat up tonight against a Nets team he dropped over 40 fantasy points against in their last meeting.
Devin Booker is facing a Knicks team that allows the third most fantasy ppg to the two. This game is tied with the Nets-Hornets for the highest expected point total of the evening. With Booker averaging over 35 fantasy ppg in his last five, I’m all-in here.
At some point, I expect Dion Waiters to go off. His price is still low and his minutes are up to over 30 now in a positive match-up versus the Bucks tonight. Think about it?
Denver is allowing the second most fantasy ppg to the two while J.J. Reddick can drop a 35-spot when he gets hot. For the price? Why not?
With Tony Parker out tonight, in a GPP, I would be willing to take a longshot that Dejounte Murray can repeat his 30-fantasy point performance in a decent match-up versus the Cavs tonight.
| FD | DK | Aces | YTD | |||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | 3PT/G | Pts/G | Reb/G | Ast/G | Stl/G | Blk/G | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $FA | |
| Nicolas Batum | CHA | H | BKN | 40 | 34.4 | 84% | 1.6 | 15 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 40% | 21.7% | 33.1 | 35.6 | 33.5 | 33.9 | $7400 | $7600 | $5750 |
| Devin Booker | PHX | A | NYK | 41 | 34.2 | 83% | 1.8 | 20.4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 42% | 27.66% | 28.1 | 30.5 | 28.2 | 28.9 | $6500 | $6700 | $5200 |
| Dion Waiters | MIA | H | MIL | 23 | 29.7 | 67% | 1.1 | 13 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2 | 37% | 25.13% | 22.9 | 24.7 | 23.1 | 23.5 | $5200 | $5400 | $4000 |
| J.J. Redick | LAC | A | DEN | 41 | 27.8 | 86% | 2.6 | 15.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 46% | 22.69% | 20.2 | 22.3 | 20.3 | 21.5 | $4700 | $5200 | $4300 |
| Dejounte Murray | SAS | A | CLE | 21 | 7.1 | 71% | 0.4 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 46% | 26.42% | 5.7 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | $3700 | $3700 | $3000 |
Small Forward
Prior to last night’s terrible fantasy outing for Jimmy Butler, he was dropping 50-spots like Jeff Mans wants to drop F-Bombs on air. The Kings are allowing their fair share of fantasy ppg to the three, look for a rebound.
Kawhi Leonard now has a price-point that is matching his fantasy production. He is averaging nearly 50 fantasy ppg over his last four and faces a Cleveland team that allows the third most fantasy ppg to the three. These teams are going to battle tonight, for sure.
Wilson Chandler, for the price, offers a nice upside tonight with Danilo Gallinari being a GTD. His price is fair and he can easily seize you over 35 fantasy points when he gets hot. Something he has done now twice in his last four.
For value tonight, I find Caris LeVert and Joe Ingles both great boom-or-bust GPP plays in great positions to far exceed their cost.
| FD | DK | Aces | YTD | |||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | 3PT/G | Pts/G | Reb/G | Ast/G | Stl/G | Blk/G | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $FA | |
| Jimmy Butler | CHI | H | SAC | 42 | 36.6 | 87% | 1.2 | 24.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 46% | 27.2% | 41.8 | 43.8 | 42.1 | 42.4 | $9800 | $9100 | $6550 |
| Kawhi Leonard | SAS | A | CLE | 40 | 33.3 | 91% | 2.1 | 25.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 49% | 29.9% | 39.9 | 42.1 | 40.2 | 40.9 | $9600 | $9200 | $6500 |
| Wilson Chandler | DEN | H | LAC | 37 | 30.8 | 72% | 1.5 | 16.1 | 6.9 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 45% | 23.06% | 28.1 | 30 | 28.4 | 28.8 | $5700 | $5800 | $4700 |
| Caris LeVert | BKN | A | CHA | 22 | 18.5 | 72% | 1.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 45% | 15.41% | 13.7 | 14.8 | 13.8 | 14.2 | $4100 | $3400 | $3000 |
| Joe Ingles | UTA | H | IND | 44 | 20.8 | 78% | 1.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1 | 0.1 | 1 | 48% | 13.92% | 14.2 | 15.5 | 14.3 | 14.9 | $3700 | $4400 | $3600 |
Power Forward
LaMarcus Aldridge has cooled down a bit over his last few games. The match-up may be less than favorable tonight but with not a lot to spend-up on at the four, I will be using him in my lineups with Leonard.
With a Rockets team maybe feeling under the weather, I am going to have exposure to Zach Randolph tonight. It also helps the Rockets are allowing the second most fantasy ppg to the four, while Randolph has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in three of his last four.
With Joel Embiid out, I believe the player who is going to benefit the most is Ersan Ilyasova. He is putting up decent fantasy numbers more nights than not, and I expect him to have an increase in shot attempts tonight.
You could roster just about any starting Charlotte player tonight in this match-up. In a pinch, to save a few bucks, I would be willing to throw Marvin Williams in a GPP or two. He is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg in his last three.
JaMychal Green also makes the cut tonight in a GPP in the same match-up as Randolph for $1300 less on FD. Just riskier.
| FD | DK | Aces | YTD | |||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | 3PT/G | Pts/G | Reb/G | Ast/G | Stl/G | Blk/G | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $FA | |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | SAS | A | CLE | 38 | 32.2 | 83% | 0.4 | 17.6 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 1 | 1.4 | 51% | 23.89% | 31 | 32.2 | 31.4 | 31.2 | $7500 | $6800 | $5500 |
| Zach Randolph | MEM | H | HOU | 38 | 23.4 | 76% | 0.3 | 13.7 | 8.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 44% | 29.89% | 26.4 | 27.6 | 26.8 | 26.6 | $5900 | $5800 | $5000 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | PHI | A | ATL | 3 | 20.7 | 0% | 1 | 5 | 5.3 | 0.3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 38% | 14.14% | 13.2 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 13.7 | $5800 | $5800 | $4550 |
| Marvin Williams | CHA | H | BKN | 37 | 27 | 83% | 1.8 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 40% | 17.93% | 20.5 | 22 | 20.8 | 21.4 | $4900 | $4700 | $4200 |
| JaMychal Green | MEM | H | HOU | 44 | 29.4 | 77% | 0.8 | 9 | 7.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 47% | 14.03% | 21.4 | 22.7 | 21.8 | 21.8 | $4600 | $4600 | $4200 |
Center
I am spending at center tonight and DeMarcus Cousins is where I am looking. If fading Harden, he is the player I most expect a shot at getting 70-fantasy points out of.
If I was not going to boogie, I would use DeAndre Jordan. With Chris Paul out he has managed to drop more than 50 fantasy ppg in three straight in a positive match-up tonight.
The center I would use if really looking for savings would be Cody Zeller. The Nets are allowing the most fantasy ppg to the position while Zeller can drop a 30-spot, like he did the last time he faced them.
And finally, Jahlil Okafor should see some increased playing time as well with no Embiid, in a less than desirable match-up. GPP only.
| FD | DK | Aces | YTD | |||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | 3PT/G | Pts/G | Reb/G | Ast/G | Stl/G | Blk/G | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $FA | |
| DeMarcus Cousins | SAC | A | CHI | 41 | 34.5 | 78% | 1.8 | 27.8 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 45% | 36.75% | 48.4 | 51.5 | 48.9 | 49.3 | $10600 | $10900 | $7750 |
| DeAndre Jordan | LAC | A | DEN | 44 | 32.1 | 52% | 0.0 | 12.6 | 13.9 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 69% | 15.34% | 34 | 35.5 | 34.7 | 34 | $9100 | $7800 | $5900 |
| Cody Zeller | CHA | H | BKN | 36 | 26.6 | 67% | 0.0 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 59% | 16.61% | 22.8 | 23.7 | 23.1 | 22.8 | $5000 | $5000 | $4300 |
| Jahlil Okafor | PHI | A | ATL | 30 | 22.8 | 60% | 0.0 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 52% | 22.62% | 20 | 21 | 20.3 | 20 | $4600 | $5300 | $4600 |
Good luck tonight, any questions email me JCFantasyAlarm@yahoo.com, or hit me up on Twitter @RealJerryColvin