NBA DFS Position Coach: January 10

A lot of important players have either been ruled out or are questionable for Tuesday, and in most cases, the guys behind them have upside but are risky. In GPP lineups I am happy to play some of those risky players and pair them with expensive studs, but in cash games, you may want to pay a bit more for slightly safer players.

Remarkably, most of the positions are pretty similar, with the possible exception of center. You don’t have to break the bank at center, and in fact, I would caution against it, but you probably won’t want to go super cheap, either.

Point Guard

Somebody on the Bulls is going to get more shots with Jimmy Butler and Dwayne Wade out, but good luck figuring out which guys to play. Michael Carter-Williams is probably the safest Bull, and even if he doesn’t match his 15 points from Monday, he could see his assist total rise as a result of having the ball in his hands a lot more.

Marcus Smart had 22 points, five rebounds and six assists Saturday with Avery Bradley out. While that may be Smart’s ceiling, he is averaging 12.5 points, 4.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists in six games as a starting guard this season, and those are fine numbers considering his price.

There might be players at other positions I like better, but there is no doubt John Wall is the class of the point guard position. Wall is averaging 19.8 points, 3.5 rebounds and 11.3 assists in his last four games, and he had 23, six and nine in his only game against the Bulls this season.

Only the Nets and Suns have allowed more points than the Trail Blazers this season, and D’Angelo Russell has been remarkably consistent since the calendar flipped. Russell is averaging 20.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 5.0 assists in January.

Shooting Guard

Denzel Valentine is the only shooting guard left standing for the Bulls, and even though he hasn’t done much in limited action to this point, just about anybody who is looking at 30+ minutes is a decent punt play.

Jeremy Lamb had 13 points, eight rebounds and three assists in 29 minutes Saturday despite going 4-12 from the field. With Nicolas Batum out again, Lamb should see similar minutes and production Tuesday.

This may be your last chance to use Tim Hardaway Jr. before his price catches up with his production. Hardaway has averaged 28.2 fantasy points on DraftKings over his last four games. By way of comparison, Eric Gordon has averaged 29.0 on the season, and he costs $1,200 more than Hardaway.

This would be a much tougher matchup if Batum was healthy, but there is a decent chance I would recommend James Harden anyway. Harden looks matchup proof at this point, and it would be pretty surprising if anybody has more fantasy points than Harden Tuesday night.

Small Forward

Doug McDermott has played a lot more lately, and he will almost certainly have to take more shots Tuesday, but it is fair to wonder if he can get his own shot without Butler and Wade to get him open looks. McDermott could score 20 or he could score five, so he is probably best left to GPP lineups.

There is a big opportunity for somebody in Houston if Eric Gordon is out, but much like the Bulls’ situation, it is hard to trust anybody to step up. Corey Brewer will likely start if Gordon sits, but Sam Dekker and K.J. McDaniels could get more work as well.  Brewer is the better DFS play, especially for cash games, but Dekker could be worth a spot in a GPP lineup.

Otto Porter Jr. has a nasty habit of letting you down as soon as you trust him, like when he had eight points, two rebounds and one assist against these same Bulls three weeks ago. That being said, Porter will mostly be matched up with McDermott and Nikola Mirotic, and he should be able to blow by those guys whenever he wants.

The big risk for Kevin Durant is that he doesn’t play in the fourth quarter, but even then he should be relatively safe. This would be a tough matchup if Justise Winslow or even Josh Richardson were healthy, but Durant should have his way with whatever combination of James Johnson, Dion Waiters, Luke Babbitt and Wayne Ellington the Heat throw at him.

Power Forward

Everything I wrote about Doug McDermott applies to Nikola Mirotic. Mirotic might be a little safer, as he probably won’t repeat his three-point effort from Monday, nobody would characterize him as reliable.

I never thought there would be a day when I would recommend Portland’s bigs and not their guards, but here we are. Damian Lillard is still dealing with conditioning issues after missing two weeks with an ankle injury, and C.J. McCollum is overpriced after he carried the load with Lillard out. That leaves Al-Farouq Aminu, who is averaging 11.7 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists over his last three games, including a seven point, 11 rebound, four assists effort against the Lakers.

I won’t try to stop you if you would rather play Kevin Love or Julius Randle, but I like Paul Millsap’s matchup with Brooklyn, especially if Trevor Booker is out. No team in the NBA has allowed more points than the Nets, and only the Pelicans have allowed more rebounds.

Center

Justin Hamilton is averaging 13.7 points and 6.3 rebounds over his last three games. Hamilton got the start the last time Trevor Booker sat, and if Booker cannot go Tuesday, Hamilton is worth a look.

 Among the teams playing Tuesday, only the Nets and Heat have allowed more fantasy points to centers than the Lakers. Mason Plumlee is averaging 14.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 1.3 blocks in his last four games. He is a solid play if you want some security but don’t want to spend big at center.

To be clear, I do not want to pay up for my center, but if you force me to, I will go with Al Horford. Toronto doesn’t have anyone who matches up well with Horford, and Horford had 19 points, seven rebounds and six assists in his only game against the Raptors this season.