NBA DFS Position Coach: March 24, 2016

Kyle Lowry. Remember that if you played him last night on FanDuel. This is what you can expect the rest of the way in the NBA. Trust me when I tell you that although the NBA has FanDuel logos on the basketball courts the teams and coaches themselves could care less about DFS. Players are paid to play basketball and coaches are payed to make sure them players win games. Nowhere in the history of coaching until now has any kind of pressure been put on teams to have lineups in or even think about it in the slightest capacity for fantasy sports purposes.

To them, this is all new. I certainly would not be surprised if at the conclusion of the NBA season and the New York court case, the NBA tries to figure out how to make this all easier for DFS players. The simple truth is, who else is going to watch the Lakers play the Suns late at night otherwise? They certainly are smart enough, I believe, to see where the bread and butter lies, and let me tell you my friends, we are holding both the bread and the butter. The ball will be in their court.

So my wife Jennifer is in full blown pregnancy mode which is always pleasant news for me as I have little to do (sarcasm). She also tells me the way she is feeling is like no other pregnancy she has had in the past. So with a little luck this may be a boy.

Perhaps I am being overconfident but I have already saved a whole Dodgers wardrobe for infants in my EBay watch list. I am just waiting for the confirmation to pull the trigger. It is hard to believe that in a matter of months I will be holding a little me. Worst case scenario, it is a girl and I go back on EBay and change all the blue Dodgers stuff to Pink. Either way, there is going to be a run on EBay in the next few months on Dodgers gear for infants like no other. Trust me.

We have a nice five-game slate tonight which to me is just the right size for a fun night. Then you take into consideration that we have no Memphis or Sixers tonight to take advantage of which tells me this is a great night to run a balanced lineup in some cash games. My exposure at this point is around $25 per night between FanDuel and DraftKings. I do not see myself going any lower than this from here. Otherwise I see little point in playing. My exposure right now most nights on FanDuel is the $5 Assist and two $5 50/50’s. On DraftKings I am playing the $3 Sharpshooter (like scratching tickets), a $2 x 10 multiplier, and a $5 50/50. You never know.

I am going to throw some money into my Fantasy Aces account later today in preparation for the upcoming DFS MLB season. With so many of my fellow DFS players in NY forced to play on the site now I see no way around it. It is going to be an interesting season and I want to make sure to be in the trenches with everyone as we deal with this hopefully short-term BS. I will be running Aces contests during the MLB season for us to play in together if the interest is there.

So with a late start today and my research done, I bring you today’s Position Coach Article. Please note we are having trouble with the spreadsheets but all the numbers in the article are correct at the time of writing.

Point Guard

Strategy

We have a few studs to pay up for here tonight and I certainly could not blame anyone with the lack of superstars on the slate for paying up for two of them here. We do have cheaper options, though, with the potential to net you a decent amount of fantasy points. Be advised you will not see many Cleveland players in my article today even though they have a sweet matchup facing the Nets because this will be their fifth game in seven days. On a team that already looks tired, this seems like it has "bad night" written all over it. If they blow out Brooklyn they sit. If not, they still might sit. Or, they just might sit altogether. Keep an eye on this game.

Core Players

The top play tonight at the point guard position without question is Russell Westbrook. The simple fact that he is facing the Utah Jazz tonight in the game with the lowest expected point total at 199.5 could be to our benefit. The other things that are in our benefit is the simple fact that Westbrook has scored more than 50 fantasy ppg in four of his last eight games with five triple-doubles while boasting the highest usage rate on the slate. The Jazz are allowing the eighth fewest fantasy ppg to point guards but versus Westbrook I could care less.

The next-best option tonight next to Westbrook is Chris Paul. The Trail Blazers-Clippers game has the highest expected point total of the evening at 214 with the Clips being five-point favorites. Paul in his last 10 games has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in six of his last 10 going over the 50 mark versus the Knicks (51.3) and Pelicans (57.7). He is averaging 14 points and 11 assists over three games versus Portland this season and gets a great matchup from a fantasy perspective with the Blazers allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to point guards. I believe Paul is the safer cash game play tonight and Westbrook is the better GPP play. If you can I really love them both together.

Shelvin Mack. Yes, the Mack Daddy. His price is up to $6,300 on FanDuel which I find a bit high. The fact remains the Mack Daddy keeps “mackin” scoring over 30 fantasy ppg in six of his last eight games with three double-doubles. He may not wear his shorts backwards but the Mack Daddy can make your bankroll jump tonight with the Thunder allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to point guards. His usage rate is in the middle of the pack, but on a small slate I find Mack more than a viable option.

What is up with Norris Cole? Probably the same thing as every night. He will sit. What is the point of rushing him at this point? So in my “expert” opinion, which will either get you a fat bankroll or the amazing ability to reference my name with expletives I cannot repeat around my kids, Toney Douglas is the guy to watch out for if you are hunting value. His price is low at $5,100 on FanDuel with little in the way of offensive weapons at New Orleans' disposal. In his last seven games he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg three times going over the 40 mark versus the Warriors on March 14 (42). The matchup is not great with the Pacers allowing the ninth fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards (which is where he is projected to start) but the game does have a nice 207.5 expected point total and someone has to score. Why not Douglas?

Possible Value Plays

I do not see a ton options for cheap value tonight that is worth taking the risk on. The one player that did stand out and should give you separation from the pack tonight if he goes off is Jose Calderon. Don’t get me wrong here. I am not promising the sky and more than likely you end up with 15 fantasy points out of him. But, he has managed in the last 10 games to score over 20 fantasy ppg in four of them. In those four he managed to score more than 25 fantasy points three times going over the 30 mark versus the Suns (33.4). What this suggests is that he does have the chance to get you 30 fantasy points for the low price of $3,800 on FanDuel and a great matchup to boot with the Bulls allowing the 28^th most fantasy ppg to point guards. If I really saw the need I would consider using him tonight with the understanding I might be putting my phone down pissed by the end of the first half.

Shooting Guard

Strategy

The shooting guard position tonight is the perfect example of risk versus reward. My strategy tonight is to save myself. I am going super cheap so I can spend up elsewhere. Even though we have a few great plays that are over $5K tonight, I just feel I can do better elsewhere with my salary. My own lineup tonight will feature two players from the Value section. Keep in mind, at this time I only plan on running one lineup but if I was to throw out a second it would contain the top two players in some form.

Core Players

The best play tonight with the most promise of minutes is Jrue Holiday. In what I consider typical FanDuel irony they have finally placed him in the two now that he is playing in the one again. Regardless, he is averaging over 40 fantasy ppg in his last three while playing 35 minutes or more in each. He is being ridden hard and put away wet by the Pelicans right now and I see no end to that in sight. The matchup is not the greatest with the Pacers allowing the ninth fewest fantasy ppg to point guards but much like Douglas, someone has to score. If you are going to pay up this is the guy.

I really like Monta Ellis tonight. It is his price that scares me. Even though Ellis has a great matchup facing a Pelicans team allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in six out of his last 10 games I feel like every time I take him he throws up a stinker. I am pretty sure the last time I did was on March 13 versus the Hawks where he put up a whopping 19.6 fantasy points. He should be safe tonight as I am passing on him but if I decide to use him I will put the word out so you can pull off of him. He is a great cash game play tonight.

Possible Value Plays

I would have no objection to stacking both J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford together tonight. The price would only be a combined $9,500 on FanDuel and I honestly believe between the two you will get around 47-to-50 fantasy points tonight out of them. The matchup is just positive with the Trail Blazers allowing the 19^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and both players have that high 20 fantasy point upside. On a great night, if one gets hot he can easily go for 27 fantasy points or so. Just a thought. If I was to choose one of the two it would be the one that fits easier into my lineup. Sometimes the $300 price difference means the world. I am currently using Crawford but slightly prefer Redick.

J.R. Smith is in a spot to have another great night tonight. The problem is he may be getting tired. Although he has scored a combined 57.9 fantasy points in his last two games on FanDuel he would be playing his fifth game in seven-days. That spells huge risk for me making him a better GPP play. He does, however, have a great matchup tonight with the Nets allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and his price is only $4,300.

Sean Kilpatrick is part of the ever maddening to figure out Brooklyn backcourt. It seems, though, as of late that Kilpatrick is starting to gain some ground as he has played over 20 mpg in six straight, scoring over 20 fantasy ppg in three of them scoring 30.9 fantasy points versus the Hornets in his last game. His price is only $3,900 making him the perfect candidate for that boom or bust GPP.

Small Forward

Strategy

Small forward again tonight, for five games, seems to have an abundance of selection. The problem is most of it makes me feel like I do when I order from Subway. Although I like the sandwich, never once have I come home and told my wife, “Look at all the meat they gave me."

I will either be paying up, combining two of the players in the Core section, or pairing one with the only player I am putting in the value section.

Core Players

A lot of whether I use Kevin Durant tonight is going to depend on whether or not I roll with Westbrook. On a small slate like tonight my feeling is you shoot for upside over value. I see no other small forward on the slate who can get me 60 fantasy points with more consistency than Durant. That is why you pay for him. He has kind of been in a funk dealing with a little elbow soreness. He has, however, scored more than 50 fantasy ppg in five of his last 10 games going over that 60 mark we so crave versus the Bucks (60.6) and Pacers (65.6 in his game before last). The Jazz are the team I refer to as the "82's" because there fantasy points allowed from the one to five are ranked 8-2-2-2-2 and they allow the second fewest fantasy ppg overall for another 2. Regardless, at the moment I am using Durant and see little chance I do not keep him in my lineup tonight.

Carmelo Anthony seems like a nice option tonight facing a Bulls team allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards. Anthony has one of the higher usage rates on the slate and has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in four of his last nine games with the others going over the 30 mark. His price is $8,700 on FanDuel and if I was going to stack the three I would pair Anthony with the player below tonight. Otherwise, I use Durant and value.

Gordon Hayward was the player who I loved last night and did not use. One of those situations where even though I had a good night it could have been a great night if I had followed my gut a little. Hayward just felt like he was due and I was right as he scored 45.7 fantasy points versus the defensively inept Rockets team. Tonight Hayward would be facing a Thunder team allowing the 10^th fewest fantasy ppg to small forwards which is less than stellar for eye appeal but his price is under $7K now making him a bargain in my eyes and a great player to pair with Melo if you go that route.

Possible Value Plays

The player I have paired with Durant tonight is Luke Babbitt. I just find it hard to pass on a player who is settling into a starting role on a team with no one left to shoot for the minimum to near minimum salary. He also has upside as he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in four of his last six going over the 30 mark versus the Bucks on March 12 (33.3). Those are exactly the kind of numbers I look for and fully plan on using him tonight as long as he stays in the starting role. Just beware the matchup is not great with the Pacers allowing the ninth fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards, where he is projected to start. Oh, and of course as with any bench player who is starting he could lose his minutes in a nanosecond leaving one no choice but to shut his phone off and watch something else.

Power Forward

Strategy

Not a lot to spend for here tonight and there are viable options at all price levels. I would use this position tonight as leverage to roster the bigger guys you like more at other positions.

Core Players

The only player I would consider spending up for tonight is Kevin Love. He eludes the five games in seven days rule for the Cavs tonight as he has only played one game in four days. If I was a coach and wanted to give some players a rest I would certainly keep the guy who has played little as of late on the court. With all this being said, Love is a great play tonight from a stats standpoint with the Nets allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to power forwards. Love also has managed to score over 30 fantasy ppg in three of his last eight games going over the 40 mark twice versus the Mavericks (48.1) and Bucks (44). If guys sit tonight like LeBron James he gets a major bump, if not I would still use him.

Snap returned to his shelter in the back of the Latvian Kings castle to wash the blood off of his clothing before returning to his master to report his success. The images in his head from his slaughter of the elves of Keebler will long haunt him in his little nightmares. While he was out doing his master's bidding Lord Kristaps Porzingis was inflicting pain on the basketball court to the beleaguered Bulls, scoring 29 points with 10 rebounds for a whopping 39.5 fantasy points. His subjects all rejoiced at the value they received for the low price of $5,900 on FanDuel. The historians are already starting to write tonight’s chapter with the same Bulls who are allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg waiting on deck again.

Lord Porzingis was filled with elation at the thought of having all the riches of Latvia and the Keebler kingdom all to himself. He was so happy he set Snap free of service and retired him to a life of luxury. Although Snap fought the notion of retirement, he knew that he had too many marshmallow treats under his belt as it were and it was time to retire. So he agreed.

Snap returned home with eager anticipation and horrible memories in his head from years of serving the Latvian King and his family. He sat there in silence and then he remembered the apple he picked on the walk home. He ran into a nice lady who had told him he looked hungry and to help himself to an apple. He took a bite of the delicious red apple and picked up his pipe to fill with tobacco. Suddenly a painful burn ascended his throat and the lights grew dark. Snap laid there watching his life pass before him as he expired.

Outside his window a new creature to the kingdom scampered off into the woods with eager anticipation. He could not wait to report to his six dwarf brothers the success of his mission and he only hopes to finally gain the approval of his queen…Snow White. TBC

Myles Turner is stepping up his production again and this is not a fantasy I assure you. He has managed to score over 20 fantasy ppg now in three straight going over 26 in his last two. The Pelicans are allowing the 17^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards which is just favorable. His price is low and he is one of the better options I feel to gain exposure to the Pacers offense tonight for the price at $5,000 on FanDuel.

Possible Value Plays

Now that we are out of story land let’s talk value. The player I really like tonight is Ed Davis. I ended up using him last night at the last minute on DraftKings and I he paid dividends even though on that site I did not cash. Davis has scored over 20 fantasy ppg now in four straight and dropped 32.8 fantasy points last night. His price is only $4,000 on FanDuel and the near minimum across the industry. The matchup is not great with the Clippers allowing the 10^th fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards but for the price and upside here in a game with a high expected point total I am willing to give him another shot. And will.

Center

Strategy

No matter how big the slate I have no trouble deciding who to use at center. The center position to me is much like the Order of the Sith in the Star Wars universe. There can be only two. Not to mention that the two centers provided fit into the price scheme to be used with the plays in my article. Life can be easy when you can cheap out and repeat the same paragraph from the night before, but it is not often the same two centers appear to me at the top of my model.

Core Players

My gut is telling me tonight that DeAndre Jordan is due for another huge game. Much like yesterday he is my top option again tonight. The Trail Blazers are allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to centers and Jordan is coming off a monster game scoring over 50 fantasy points versus the Warriors. When a guy is dialed in, he is dialed in, and I am holding the phone. It’s either him or the guy below again for me tonight.

Mason Plumlee. Yes, Mason Plumlee. Who I used last night as well. Not only is his price dirt cheap at $5,200 tonight like last night but he is quickly becoming the model of cheap consistency with the upside of getting more than 30 fantasy points. In three out of his last four games he has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg going over the 40 mark versus the Mavericks (42.8). His price is low and he continues to roll why not roll with him. On Draft Kings he is a great player for his low price in the Utility spot to pair with Jordan.

Possible Value Plays

Mason Plumlee, $5,200 is more than acceptable.

GO DODGERS!

Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73 or you can email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com.