So I bring my wife to the doctor yesterday and find out her due date is Halloween. So there you go, I am going to have a monster on my hands.
Love me or hate me I will always be honest with you guys. Right now DFS NBA is total crap. The pricing is horrible and on a nightly basis from here on out you can expect entire teams resting. With all this turmoil approaching I have stopped playing on DraftKings and any other sites that allow late swaps. I decided this after the Memphis game the other night. With baseball so close I find FanDuel, as messed up as it is, the best option for me. I look forward to relaxing at 7 p.m. when rosters lock and enjoying the games without having to scramble and keep checking lineups. I am not saying FanDuel is better than DraftKings, I am simply saying FanDuel is better for me at this time. If you want to win on DK you have to stay on top of rosters right up until the 10:30 p.m. game or you will lose. I much prefer watching TV with my wife over Mario Chalmers.
We have a big nine-game slate tonight with all the superstars in play. When constructing your cash game lineups tonight you need to shoot for a score of over 325 points on FanDuel and 300 on DraftKings. I expect value to explode tonight at some point with so many GTD’s everywhere and all of the stress that goes with it. I will only be playing a total of $55 tonight over two lineups. One of those being a $5 Stars and Scrubs affair. If you try to play 100 percent safe tonight you will be dead in the water in cash games. Like it or not, right now you have to attack your cash game lineups with a GPP mindset. You need to take a few risks to plug in that extra superstar or two. The days of rostering one or two studs with a bunch of mid-priced players are over for the most part. Get used to it. Anyone who tells you otherwise is either ignorant to the way DFS works or is not paying attention. Either is dangerous for your bankroll.
I do not win every night but I will say and I am not totally proud of it that I do at least cash, on average, four out of seven nights. Trust me when I say this is way down. I had a good run a week or so ago and since then I feel like the two idiots in the movie "Water." I am just treading always a few bad nights away from a making a deposit. Something at this point I really was hoping to not do.
The DFS NBA scene has changed a lot from this season to last. More websites, more experts, and more knowledgeable players. When people lose money they either learn fast how not to, or quit playing. Right now in the NBA most of the “half-way” players have jumped ship and are awaiting baseball. Who is left? Us, the people who do diligent research and go into battle prepared. The die-hards. Every night from here on out will be like a fight in a "Rocky" movie to cash. Get used to it.
So with a ton of stuff to go over today for this large slate and even more to do in my personal and business life I bring you today’s position coach article.
Point Guard
Strategy
It is kind of a weird night at the point guard position. Even though we have Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, and Stephen Curry I honestly believe you are better off fading them in cash games with so many cheaper options with 40-to-50 fantasy point upside. All of them are in play in GPP tonight but none of them score high enough in my model to make the Position Coach article.
Players
At this time I find Kemba Walker the best option for the price. Not only does he have a high usage rate but he is averaging more minutes per game (36) than any other point guard on the slate. The matchup could be better with the Pelicans allowing the 14th fewest fantasy ppg to point guards but this matters little with the offense largely running through Kemba. Walker has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in four straight with three of them just missing the 50 mark. We do have some blowout risk with Charlotte being nine-point favorites but this game does have a nice 210 expected point total. Walker is the most bang for your buck in cash games.
Kyrie Irving tonight is facing the Kings in what should be a high-scoring affair. The Kings are allowing the 23rd most fantasy ppg to point guards and Irving is lighting it up nightly. He has the third highest usage rate on the slate and has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in five straight including a 40 fantasy point performance versus the Wizards on March 4. With the Kings allowing a ton of fantasy points to everyone, I see no way Irving does not have a good game tonight.
The guards for New Orleans are all banged up. This should keep the door open for both Jrue Holiday and Norris Cole (GTD – back) to play heavy minutes.
Holiday has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in nine out of his last 10 games, including three 40-point performances versus the Thunder, Sixers, and Kings. The matchup could be better with the Hornets allowing the 12th fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards (where he is starting) but with little offensive options for New Orleans the amount of shots alone should overcome the matchup.
Norris Cole played 40 minutes in his last game, scoring 45.4 fantasy points on FanDuel. As a matter of fact he has had two 40 fantasy point games in the last four, one versus the Rockets on March 2 and the other versus the Kings on Monday night. His price is on the rise now at $5,700 on FanDuel but it is more than worth it with the amount of minutes up for grabs. Once again the matchup could be better with the Hornets allowing the 11th fewest fantasy ppg to point guards but it is a number in this situation I can live with. Some crafty DFS players might even roster Holiday and Cole together.
The player I currently have paired with Walker is Patrick Beverley. I cannot imagine for the life of me why his price is not on the rise. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in eight of his last 10 going over the 30 mark on two occasion versus the Suns and Pelicans. The Sixers are allowing the 25th most fantasy ppg to point guards and Beverley is one of those players who excels in good matchups and is the model of consistency as of late.
Shelvin Mack, or the “Mack Daddy,” much like yesterday and every day until his price comes up is my favorite player for a stars and scrubs GPP. He continues to get the run of the minutes and still has a usage rate higher than most of the point guards on the slate. Tonight he also benefits from a great matchup with Golden State allowing the fifth most fantasy ppg to the point guard position. Did I also mention he makes a great cheap “late bullet” for the near minimum price?
| FanDuel | Draft Kings | ||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Opp | M/G | FGA | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | $ | PTS | $ | PTS |
| Kemba Walker | CHA | NOP | 36.07 | 16.77 | 2.1 | 4.43 | 5.2 | 1.69 | 0.51 | 2.18 | 21.2 | $8,800 | 41.09 | $8,300 | 38.88 |
| Jrue Holiday | NOP | CHA | 27.11 | 13.64 | 1.18 | 2.93 | 6 | 1.32 | 0.34 | 2.43 | 15.73 | $8,000 | 31.73 | $8,100 | 31.09 |
| Kyrie Irving | CLE | SAC | 30.08 | 15.78 | 1.44 | 2.89 | 4.47 | 1 | 0.25 | 2.14 | 19.31 | $7,200 | 33.09 | $7,800 | 31.78 |
| Norris Cole | NOP | CHA | 26.62 | 10.76 | 0.73 | 3.36 | 3.71 | 0.82 | 0.11 | 1.67 | 10.6 | $5,700 | 21.55 | $5,400 | 21.76 |
| Patrick Beverley | HOU | PHI | 27.54 | 8.08 | 1.65 | 3.31 | 2.71 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 1.23 | 9.46 | $5,000 | 20.5 | $4,800 | 21.18 |
| Shelvin Mack | UTA | GSW | 7.46 | 3.96 | 0.17 | 0.92 | 1.58 | 0.33 | 0.58 | 3.88 | $3,900 | 7.81 | $4,300 | 7.85 |
Shooting Guard
Strategy
We have a fine assortment of shooting guards to choose from tonight in all shapes, sizes, and prices. The shooting guard and point guard positions tonight are both great places to try and trim a few bucks to spend up on the positions that are weaker. Keep in mind as you go from the one-to-the-five on the basketball court the usage rates drop quite drastically after the point guard position except for the elite players. Not to mention the minutes in many cases drops as well. That is why I usually opt to find savings with players who are playing plenty of minutes and getting plenty of usage. The bevy of these is usually at the one or two.
Players
The one player I am building my lineup around tonight is James Harden. I am an avid user of "Fozzy the Beard" in bad matchups so why not use him in a great one like tonight versus a young Sixers team? The game has a nice 219 expected point total with Houston being 11-point favorites so we do have some blowout risk. If you check Harden's game log you will notice he has played over 40 minutes in nine out of his last 10 games with the other being 33 minutes versus the Suns where he only put up 55.5 fantasy points on FanDuel, how dare he. The Sixers are allowing the 18th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards which should do little to stop Harden who has scored over 30 points in three straight games while averaging nearly 60 fantasy ppg. He has the highest usage rate, averages the most minutes, and has the highest ceiling of all the shooting guards on the slate. Get your Fozzy on or get left behind.
It has been hard for me to roster players against the Jazz and Spurs. They play at such a slow pace of game it really drags down the fantasy production compared to other games. No matter what player you want to roster against them you always have to take a bad matchup. The expected point total is usually one of the lowest on the slate and more often than not the lines seem close (for the Jazz, not the Spurs).
Klay Thompson outside of Shelvin Mack is the only player in this game I have any interest in. It just seems no matter what happens Thompson manages to get you close to what you expect out of him regardless of matchup. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in six out of his last 10 games while playing over 30 mpg in eight of them. In this span he managed to score 50.9, 43.6, 42.7, and 40.7 fantasy points on FanDuel versus the Clippers, Heat, Thunder, and Hawks. Not too bad if you ask me. The Jazz are allowing the fifth fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards which is right in line with a few of the teams he already dominated against. For the price, he is a great option if you fade Harden and should be low owned with most going with Fozzy.
As long as Brandon Knight is out and I doubt they will rush him back at this point Devin Booker is a great source of value at the two. In his last three games he has scored 39.6, 27.8, and 43.9 fantasy points on FanDuel versus the tough defenses of Miami, Orlando and Memphis. He is playing nearly 40 mpg right now and as long as that continues you have a shot at a huge night out of Booker every night, regardless of matchup. The Knicks are allowing the 13th fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards which bothers me little and Booker will be close to the only Phoenix exposure I will have.
J.J. Redick since retiring from the movie business (see old articles under “Chronicles of Redick”) continues to be a source of fantasy consistency. In the last 10 games Redick has scored over 20 fantasy points in eight times hitting the 30 mark versus the Suns (who are the worst in the league at defending the two) on Feb. 22. The Thunder are allowing the 21st most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and Redick is a great cheap way to gain some safe exposure to the high 215 expected point total up for grabs.
Iman Shumpert. Yes, I said it. In the last six games Shumpert has played over 30 mpg three times putting up great numbers in two of them. His price is the bare minimum and tonight he faces a Kings team allowing the second most fantasy ppg to shooting guards while playing in the game with the second highest expected point total of the night at 216.5. He is certainly worth a flyer in a stars and scrubs GPP tonight.
| FanDuel | Draft Kings | ||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Opp | M/G | FGA | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | $ | PTS | $ | PTS |
| James Harden | HOU | PHI | 37.79 | 19.59 | 2.79 | 6.37 | 7.08 | 1.65 | 0.6 | 4.54 | 28.97 | $11,000 | 56.32 | $10,700 | 51.18 |
| Klay Thompson | GSW | UTA | 33.12 | 17.18 | 3.18 | 3.75 | 2.18 | 0.77 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 21.82 | $7,100 | 33.16 | $7,100 | 33.21 |
| Devin Booker | PHX | NYK | 24.84 | 9.02 | 1.25 | 2.21 | 2.05 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 1.58 | 11.42 | $5,700 | 19.36 | $5,300 | 18.43 |
| J.J. Redick | LAC | OKC | 28.55 | 11.84 | 2.67 | 1.76 | 1.43 | 0.55 | 0.03 | 1.07 | 16.59 | $4,700 | 23.62 | $4,900 | 22.91 |
| Iman Shumpert | CLE | SAC | 24.57 | 6.08 | 0.89 | 3.73 | 1.65 | 1.08 | 0.35 | 1.16 | 6.14 | $3,900 | 15.44 | $3,900 | 16 |
Small Forward
Strategy
The truth is right now there is not a small forward I will roster tonight under the price of $5,700 on FanDuel. I always find this position the most volatile as far as fantasy production goes and consistency it seems to be lacking most nights in minutes and production. I will be making sure to lock down this position using reliable players with upside tonight choosing to find savings at other positions.
Players
Both Kevin Durant and LeBron James come in so close that trying to distinguish between the two is nearly impossible.
James has scored over 50 fantasy ppg in two of his last three and tonight faces a Kings team allowing the 24th most fantasy ppg to small forwards. He has the highest usage rate among small forwards on the slate and should play plenty of minutes having had a day off.
Kevin Durant is a 50 fantasy ppg machine. He has scored over 50 fantasy ppg now in six straight games while posting six straight double-doubles. He could get a better matchup with the Clippers allowing the 10th fewest fantasy ppg to small forwards but in his last meeting, bad matchup or not, he managed to squeeze out 54.7 fantasy points on FanDuel.
In a perfect world you could roster both. If you shop smart it is possible. If not I would at least use one of the two and pair him with one of the guys below. Your choice.
For the price you have to give Robert Covington a serious look. Although his price is on the rise I still find Covington a source of salary relief versus his recent production. He has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in three of his last six games and tonight faces a Houston team that allows the most fantasy ppg to small forwards. I see no way you do not roster at least three players from this game tonight and Covington is certainly a viable option.
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s salary is still way too low when compared to his recent output. He is putting up Kevin Durant and LeBron James like numbers on a nightly basis. In his last five games he has scored over 60 fantasy points three times, the problem is the other two were 35.7 versus the Timberwolves and 38 versus the Bulls. He gets a slightly favorable matchup tonight with Miami allowing the 17th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and for the price he is certainly a top candidate if slightly less predictable than Durant and James. Certainly could take down a GPP pairing him with one of the bigger guys.
Luol Deng is playing in the four but FanDuel has him in the two. I cannot express how mad I am at myself for not grabbing him off the waiver wire in my seasonal leagues when he was just sitting there. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in 10 straight going over the 30 mark and 40 mark twice and 50 mark once versus the Hawks on Feb. 19. To be honest, the streak could go on longer but 10 games was enough for me. The Bucks are allowing the 21st most fantasy ppg to power forwards and with Miami being 2.5-point favorites this game could go back and forth.
| FanDuel | Draft Kings | ||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Opp | M/G | FGA | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | $ | PTS | $ | PTS |
| Kevin Durant | OKC | LAC | 36.23 | 19 | 2.57 | 8.27 | 4.73 | 0.96 | 1.32 | 3.39 | 28.09 | $10,900 | 52.56 | $10,600 | 49.68 |
| LeBron James | CLE | SAC | 35.85 | 18.83 | 1.1 | 7.35 | 6.6 | 1.45 | 0.63 | 3.2 | 24.88 | $10,100 | 49.32 | $9,900 | 47.09 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL | MIA | 35.26 | 12.44 | 0.26 | 7.63 | 3.58 | 1.18 | 1.29 | 2.55 | 16.39 | $9,600 | 37.04 | $8,700 | 35.09 |
| Luol Deng | MIA | MIL | 31.84 | 9.61 | 1.16 | 5.59 | 1.66 | 0.95 | 0.32 | 0.96 | 11.7 | $6,100 | 24.47 | $6,000 | 23.81 |
| Robert Covington | PHI | HOU | 27.52 | 9.83 | 2.2 | 5.89 | 1.41 | 1.54 | 0.65 | 2.33 | 11.76 | $5,700 | 24.97 | $6,100 | 25.54 |
Power Forward
Strategy
You have options here tonight. There are several $6K range players that are all viable for cash games tonight but due to either bad matchups or other factors just missed this article. Keep in mind my model is designed to get you the most value compared to dollars spent but not necessarily the most fantasy points. Understanding how to use it is what I do. I myself feel either you spend up for Anthony Davis tonight or go fairly cheap and load up elsewhere.
Players
If you can afford him and stomach the risk then Anthony Davis, who misses weeks for a paper cut, has a great matchup tonight facing a Charlotte team allowing the 22nd most fantasy ppg to power forwards. Davis has the highest upside among all the power forwards on the slate and the highest usage rate as well. With so many injuries the Pelicans are going to lean on Davis and Holiday to lead the way. He is the way to go if you can roster him but I do not think it is necessary with better options to pay up for.
There are only two players from the Detroit-Dallas game who I like tonight and there is also a good chance they both make my lineup tonight.
Tobias Harris, from the Detroit side of things, is the only player that even peeks my interest not to mention a high score in my model. In his last eight games he has scored over 25 fantasy ppg seven times. His price is only $5,800 on FanDuel tonight which I find more than fair for consistency like this. Especially when he can go off for 30 fantasy points or more when he gets hot. The matchup is certainly right with Dallas allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to power forwards which is the best Detroit gets tonight and I cannot imagine Harris not scoring 28-to-33 fantasy points in this one.
With Jahlil Okafor out Jerami Grant is starting at power forward nightly and playing heavy minutes (over 35 mpg in last four out of his last five). His numbers have been decent for his price scoring over 20 fantasy ppg in four of his last five games also even putting up 37.1 fantasy points on FanDuel versus the Magic on Feb. 28. The Rockets are allowing the most fantasy ppg to power forwards and Grant is locked and loaded in my cash game lineup tonight.
Memphis is a mess and as much as I hate to say it, JaMychal Green remains a great play tonight. As long as he gets the minutes he usually can provide you with over 20 fantasy points. Tonight he gets a great matchup facing a Celtics team allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to centers and if everyone is still hurt tonight for Memphis I see no way you fade him.
David Lee. Why did the Celtics not give this guy a bigger role? Since joining Dallas, Lee has become a DFS cash register. His price is starting to rise now at $5K on FanDuel, but when you can roster a player like Lee who on a good night has the ability to score over 40 fantasy points It is hard to not notice him. In five out of his last six games he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg including a 30 and 40 fantasy point performance. When he is on the floor he has a high usage rate and this game is slated to be close with Dallas being 2.5-point favorites. I smell a shootout.
| FanDuel | Draft Kings | ||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Opp | M/G | FGA | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | $ | PTS | $ | PTS |
| Anthony Davis | NOP | CHA | 35.84 | 18.42 | 0.55 | 10.24 | 1.89 | 1.33 | 2.16 | 2.04 | 23.98 | $10,000 | 49.12 | $9,700 | 45.85 |
| Tobias Harris | DET | DAL | 32.86 | 11.04 | 0.96 | 7 | 2.02 | 0.96 | 0.57 | 1.59 | 13.65 | $5,800 | 29 | $6,000 | 28.18 |
| Jerami Grant | PHI | HOU | 26.51 | 7.13 | 0.38 | 4.77 | 1.69 | 0.72 | 1.64 | 1.39 | 9.05 | $5,200 | 23.11 | $5,200 | 21.76 |
| David Lee | DAL | DET | 15.67 | 6.4 | 4.33 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.43 | 1.27 | 7.13 | $5,000 | 16.77 | $5,100 | 16.28 | |
| JaMychal Green | MEM | BOS | 15.97 | 4.68 | 0.2 | 4.07 | 0.53 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.93 | 6.22 | $4,600 | 13.92 | $4,500 | 13.46 |
Center
Strategy
We have three great options tonight at three great price levels. Either of the first two players are cash game viable and the last is GPP only.
Players
Dwight Howard tonight is facing a Sixers team that defends the center position horribly allowing the most fantasy ppg. Howard in his last 10 games has scored over 40 fantasy points three times while averaging well over 30 fantasy ppg. His price is under $8K on FanDuel and I find that an absolute steal in what should be a game full of fantasy gold tonight.
Alex Len has finally received a price increase but not enough to scare me off of him. He is playing heavy minutes and I will gladly pay $6,600 for a player who has scored over 50 fantasy ppg in two straight versus the tough defenses of Orlando and Memphis (debatable). The matchup could be better tonight as well with the Knicks allowing the seventh fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards (where he is playing) but a lot of that is Porzingis who is playing less than 30 minutes lately.
GPP play for center tonight is Andrew Bogut. You get a late bullet in a bad matchup who has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in four straight with two of them going over the 30 mark. His price is $5K and with Len and the other great matchups I guarantee he will be low owned. Just very risky.
| FanDuel | Draft Kings | ||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Opp | M/G | FGA | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | $ | PTS | $ | PTS |
| Dwight Howard | HOU | PHI | 32.71 | 9.02 | 11.96 | 1.38 | 1.08 | 1.48 | 2.46 | 14.88 | $7,900 | 37.85 | $8,000 | 35.8 | |
| Alex Len | PHX | NYK | 21.08 | 6.98 | 0.02 | 7.05 | 0.97 | 0.53 | 0.9 | 1.59 | 8.56 | $6,600 | 21.96 | $6,600 | 20.88 |
| Andrew Bogut | GSW | UTA | 21.33 | 4.15 | 7.31 | 2.28 | 0.52 | 1.7 | 1.15 | 5.59 | $5,000 | 21.49 | $4,600 | 22.02 |
Core Plays
GPP: Kyrie Irving, James Harden, LeBron James, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Cash: James Harden, Kevin Durant, and Alex Len (still working it)
Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73
GO DODGERS!