NBA DFS Position Coach: March 7, 2016

It seems to me the hardest decision in Monday’s slate is which Milwaukee starters not to play. You could actually play all of them in a cash game lineup, and I just might, but I think you almost have to play at least a couple of Bucks. As for the rest of your lineup, power forward is extremely deep, and stars and scrubs is a viable strategy, though there aren’t many of either at the shooting guard position.

Point Guard

Like all of his teammates, Stephen Curry struggled from the field Sunday, going 6-for-20. In his four other games following a 33 percent or worse shooting performance, Curry has averaged 36.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.3 steals.

Jerryd Bayless is averaging 11.8 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists with Michael Carter-Williams out the last four games. His ceiling may not be very high, but Bayless is a solid cash game play.

Jrue Holiday averaging 15.5 points, 4.0 rebounds and 9.0 assists in two games against the Sacramento Kings. He played 37 minutes Saturday thanks to Eric Gordon’s injury, and he will likely have to take on a similar workload Monday, especially with Norris Cole questionable. Holiday will be a top fantasy play regardless, but Toney Douglas will be worth playing if Cole is out. Douglas played 19 minutes Saturday, and he will definitely get more playing time if Cole sits.

Shooting Guard

I usually look to save some money at shooting guard, but you should probably plan on spending a bit more Monday. You don’t have to break the bank, but there are far better value plays at other positions.

My favorite play at the position is Khris Middleton. Middleton is averaging 21.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 8.0 assists in two games against the Bulls this season. Of all of the Bucks, he and Greg Monroe are probably the safest.

Derrick Rose appears set to play Monday after he practiced Sunday, but I don’t think anybody who follows the Bulls would be surprised to see Rose miss the game anyway. Butler is averaging 34.3 points per game with Rose out, and he would be an excellent play if Rose sits Monday.

It only took 55 games, but Timberwolves head coach Sam Mitchell is finally playing Ricky Rubio and Zach LaVine together, and the results have been great for LaVine. He has scored 20 points or more in four of his last five games, and now he faces a Charlotte team that is 25^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing shooting guards. Andrew Wiggins may be slightly safer, and he is a fine play as well, but LaVine is cheaper and has played better lately.

Only the Kings allow more fantasy points to opposing shooting guards than the Warriors, which makes Evan Fournier a strong DFS play. Victor Oladipo will likely return after missing Saturday’s game, and while Fournier would be an even better play with Oladipo out, he should play around 30 minutes and get plenty of shots either way.

Small Forward

I am a bit worried Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to come back down to earth, but I doubt it happens in this game. Giannis is averaging 23.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.0 blocks and 2.5 steals in two games against the Bulls this season. Seven of the 10 stingiest defenses against small forwards are playing Monday, and while nobody would be shocked if LeBron went off, Giannis looks like a much better play. He has three triple-doubles in his last seven games, and if he gets another one you will wish he was in your lineup.

The Bucks are fifth in the NBA in opponent’s threes, and both Doug McDermott and Mike Dunleavy are averaging 1.5 threes per game. Both players saw their playing time take a hit with Jimmy Butler and Nikola Mirotic returning, but both are cheap options who could easily get double-digit points and a handful of rebounds.

I suspect the Warriors will rebound in a big way after their embarrassing loss Sunday, but it is hard to find many strong DFS plays outside of Steph Curry. Barnes is one of the least-exciting fantasy plays on the planet, but he is safer than the Bulls mentioned above and he won’t break the bank like Giannis.

Power Forward

Power forward is very interesting Monday. At the bottom you have a lot of solid values with limited upside. There are a couple of mid-priced players with high upside I like a lot, but they are both a bit risky. There are three stud power forwards at the top, but choosing the right one could be tricky.

I’m beginning with the mid-priced guys, mostly because I find them more interesting. Jabari Parker is averaging 21.9 points per game since the All-Star break, but he hasn’t had more than six rebounds in any of his last six games. The Bulls have allowed the second-most opponent’s rebounds and they have been pretty terrible against opposing bigs, but Jabari is probably the riskiest Buck Monday.

Ryan Anderson is even riskier than Jabari Parker, but he is cheaper and just as capable of having a huge night. Anderson has failed to top nine points or four rebounds in consecutive games, but he had two double-doubles before that. Perhaps even more importantly, Anderson is averaging 27.0 points in two games against the Kings this season, and Sacramento is 25^th in fantasy points allowed to power forwards.

For that reason, if I can afford to go with a stud power forward, I’m taking Anthony Davis. Davis has at least 29 points in four of his seven games since the All-Star Break, and he had 24 points and 10 rebounds in his only game against the Kings this season.

LaMarcus Aldridge missed Saturday’s game with a migraine, and David West would be a solid cash game play if Aldridge sits Monday. West is averaging 9.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.4 steals in five games with Aldridge out this season.

The Bucks have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards, and both Taj Gibson and Nikola Mirotic are interesting plays against the Bucks Monday. Gibson is probably the safer play, considering he played more than twice as many minutes as Mirotic Saturday, but there is no doubt Mirotic has more upside. Mirotic is averaging 15.5 points and 5.5 rebounds in two games against Milwaukee this season, and he should see some more minutes as he puts his appendectomy further behind him.

Quincy Acy had a career-high 16 points in 31 minutes with Kosta Koufos out Saturday, and while he may not match that scoring, he should see similar minutes if Koufos cannot play Monday. Acy’s ceiling is pretty limited, but he has a decent chance at a double-double if he plays 30 minutes, and that would be well worth the price.

JaMychal Green has played at least 20 minutes in three consecutive games, and he is averaging 12.7 points and 3.3 rebounds in those contests. Green is a solid, cheap play if Brandan Wright and Chris Anderson are out again.

Center

Center is really thin Monday, and two of the guys I do like play in the same game. You should probably plan on spending big on the position, but there is a super-cheap option available if you need one.

Jimmy Butler is much better with Derrick Rose out, and I don’t trust Rose with Butler healthy, so that makes Pau Gasol the only Bull you can really count on. He is averaging 18.0 points, 12.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 3.5 blocks against the Bucks this season and has a better matchup than most of the other top centers.

No team has allowed as many fantasy points to opposing centers as the Bulls, and Greg Monroe is averaging 15 points and 12 rebounds against them this season. Monroe may not have the upside of some of his teammates, but he is pretty much money in the bank for a double-double.

If you have to go cheap at the center position, Boban Marjanovic is worth a look if LaMarcus Aldridge is out. He had nine points and nine rebounds in 19 minutes Saturday, and while you can’t count on that, he is certainly capable of filling the stat sheet with just a modicum of playing time.