We have a giant slate to cover today so I am going to skip the usual pleasantries and get right to it.
The reality is the scores tonight are going to be through the roof. We have possible value looming everywhere tonight and if you have not started already working on your lineup you will find out soon enough that one lineup just does not feel like enough. You will want many players and just cannot have them all. You know what that tells me? The cash games are out the window tonight or at least at a minimum.
On nights like this I find it amazingly hard to keep my bankroll under control. To avoid this I will be running only one lineup tonight and letting it fly. I will enter myself in several single-entry GPP’s and one or two $25 50/50 out of habit more than necessity. Well, come to think of it I may enter at least one boom or bust for a few bucks (enter little DFS devil on shoulder). Keep in mind my research for this article was done early in the am and we have a huge chance that half of this article will be irrelevant by tip-off. I would try of course to fit in three superstars tonight and a few bargain players with a mid-priced guy or two sprinkled in. With so many questionable and doubtful players I see no way you do not attack this slate with upside in mind and approach it with a GPP mindset. I will do my best today to point out possible value but honestly on a slate this large the last hour tonight is going to be a constant stressful scramble to keep up and not be left behind. This is all the things about DFS NBA I will not miss with the start of the oncoming MLB season.
With so many great matchups and high expected point totals tonight I suggest spreading your offense around a bit to take advantage. Follow the simple rule of no more than two players from each game. It comes highly recommended by yours truly.
So with a 3-year-old that is getting ever closer to a spanking if she does not cut the crap (who I am kidding…I am a softie) and a little SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio in the background I bring you today’s position coach article.
Point Guard
Strategy
There are three ways to attack this tonight. You can either go crazy and pair two superstars, pair one superstar with one mid-priced player, or pair a superstar with one bargain basement player. So far I am leaning toward the second one. You may even find a crafty DFS player or two when looking through lineups who plays two mid-priced point guards in great matchups with huge upside and completely fades the big guns.
Players
The first dilemma I am facing tonight is Russell Westbrook. This game has everything I hold dear in DFS NBA. It has a high 220 expected point total, the Clippers are only one-point favorites, and it is also the late game. I cannot help but feel Westbrook is the guy tonight to be building your lineups around. In his last 10 games he has scored over 50 fantasy ppg six times even throwing in two triple-doubles and six double-doubles. His lowest score on FanDuel in the last 10 games was a horrible 46.8 fantasy points…if you call that horrible. Westbrook is one of the few guys in the NBA whose floor is higher than most of the stars' ceilings. The matchup could be better with the Clippers allowing the sixth fewest fantasy ppg to point guards but I suspect that will matter little. My dilemma is this, I usually pair Westbrook with Kevin Durant and at this time it really feels like I can only use one or the other tonight with the abundance of other superstars in great matchups.
Both John Wall and Chris Paul are tied in my model behind Westbrook tonight. Both games have the same 220 expected point total and both games are slated to be close with Washington being four-point favorites, the higher of the two. They both have similar ceilings and floors and provide about the same upside. They both also have similar defensive matchups with Minnesota allowing the 22nd most fantasy ppg (Wall) and the Thunder allowing the 21st most fantasy ppg (Paul) to point guards. They both have high usage rates among starting point guards and have similar prices. And Wall and Paul rhyme. Throw a dart or be sneaky and use them both or Westbrook.
Kemba Walker was my guy last night and if you want to get huge potential for a great price he is the way. Last night he had a monster night versus the Lakers scoring 26 points and 50 fantasy points. Walker has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in four of his last eight and tonight faces a Sixers team allowing the 24th most fantasy ppg to point guards. The price is right and back-to-game or not he is a great way to get some exposure to the high 209 expected point total tonight.
Let’s be realistic here. The best play tonight for the price across the industry is D’Angelo Russell. His price is a low $5,300 on FanDuel and $5,800 on DraftKings. He is playing over 30 minutes per night and has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in three straight including a nearly 50-point performance last night versus the Nets. The Nuggets tonight are seven-point favorites and this game has a high 211.5 expected point total. The Nuggets also are allowing the 23rd most fantasy ppg to point guards. He will be highly owned tonight with everyone looking to save money, just keep that in mind.
It is the return of the Mack Daddy, or Shelvin Mack. Mack is the only player I will consider using from the Jazz-Raptors game tonight. It will be a slow-paced, low-scoring affair. But yet, someone does have to score. One of the things I do not like about taking players from the Jazz is the simple fact they tend to spread the possessions around. Four of the starters in the lineup all have similar usage rates with Mack included. As a matter of fact, Mack has a higher usage rate than Kemba Walker, Kyle Lowry, Ish Smith, and Mike Conley. I find that fact amazing. His price is the near minimum on FanDuel and the Jazz seem to be content with giving him the minutes. As long as both of these trends continue I see little choice but to play him in at least a GPP or two.
Keep an eye on the Pelicans-Rockets game tonight. Anthony Davis is a GTD with a bad toe at this time but all indicators say he is going to play and the designation is just precautionary. If he does not play common DFS sense dictates Jrue Holiday gets a bump in action tonight. I am leaving him out of the position coach today due to the fact that if Davis plays I will have no exposure to him.
| FanDuel | Draft Kings | ||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Opp | M/G | FGA | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | $ | PTS | $ | PTS |
| Russell Westbrook | OKC | LAC | 34.57 | 18.55 | 1.22 | 7.55 | 10.32 | 2.22 | 0.23 | 4.17 | 24.3 | $11,000 | 55.49 | $11,200 | 52.6 |
| Chris Paul | LAC | OKC | 33.17 | 15.35 | 1.69 | 4.02 | 9.57 | 2.13 | 0.17 | 2.65 | 19.91 | $10,200 | 44.96 | $9,800 | 43.4 |
| John Wall | WAS | MIN | 35.92 | 17.46 | 1.51 | 4.76 | 9.81 | 2.02 | 0.8 | 4 | 20.08 | $10,000 | 45.74 | $9,700 | 45.1 |
| Kemba Walker | CHA | PHI | 35.95 | 16.64 | 2 | 4.38 | 5.16 | 1.74 | 0.53 | 2.19 | 20.62 | $8,200 | 40.38 | $8,100 | 38.3 |
| D'Angelo Russell | LAL | DEN | 27.47 | 11.42 | 1.68 | 3.59 | 3.44 | 1.12 | 0.15 | 2.36 | 12.9 | $5,300 | 23.98 | $5,800 | 24.8 |
| Shelvin Mack | UTA | TOR | 7.46 | 3.96 | 0.17 | 0.92 | 1.58 | 0.33 | 0.58 | 3.88 | $3,600 | 7.81 | $4,600 | 7.85 |
Shooting Guard
Strategy
Only one big guy tonight and several mid-priced and bargain options at SG. Actually, the options tonight at every position are vast and there are tons of safe plays everywhere. I plan on using the spend up on one player and go cheap at the other strategy myself.
Players
Fozzy the Beard, or James Harden, is the one player I can tell you now I will roster tonight. Houston is 5.5-point favorites versus the Pelicans in a game with a high 219 expected point total. Harden has scored over 50 fantasy ppg in six of his last 10 games and tonight faces a Pelicans defense surrendering the 25th most fantasy ppg to the two. I believe you have several great options at the shooting guard tonight but Harden is the only guy who can drop 60 fantasy points of the group. I am all in like Flynn and I will ride and die with Fozzy the Beard who by the way has the highest usage rate among shooting guards.
Once again we have a situation where FanDuel and DraftKings are failing to keep up with a player’s positional moves. Andrew Wiggins is playing in the three and Zach LaVine is playing in the two where the two sites have them both. To be honest I am fine with either of these plays tonight but give the slight edge to LaVine due to the price difference.
Wiggins has the fourth highest usage rate among small forwards and has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in six of his last 10. He is facing a Washington team allowing the 26th most fantasy ppg to SF's and my model is saying he is going to have one hell of a game. When you factor the price difference between LaVine and Wiggins ($1,200 on FanDuel, $800 on DraftKings) LaVine is a much better play tonight. In nine out of his last 10 games he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg and his minutes usually go well over 30. The Wizards are allowing the 24th most fantasy ppg to the two on the season and LaVine is my preferred way of getting some cheap exposure to this game with a player with the fourth highest usage rate among the starting shooting guards.
Speaking of value tonight Gary Harris is playing at home versus the Lakers tonight. The same Lakers who are allowing the third most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. His price is cheap across the industry for a player who has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in six of his last eight. This is the kind of game where by night's end you could be kicking yourself for not seeing one so obvious if he goes off for more than 30 fantasy points tonight, however unlikely. Keep in mind he should continue to see heavy minutes with this Nuggets team more beat up than Sylvester Stallone at the end of a "Rocky" movie. You think Harris cannot do it? One word, Bogdonavic.
Lou Williams is out with a hamstring injury tonight. That opens the door for Jordan Clarkson to continue to see heavy minutes. In six of his last eight games he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg with three of them closer to the 40 mark. The Nuggets severely struggle to defend the two as they are allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to SGs on the season. Clarkson is my next-favorite play besides Harden tonight and I plan on trying like hell to pair the two of them although highly unlikely with my grand scheme.
All the talks of a “Chronicles of Redick” sequel will have to be put on the back burner as it’s getting late. J.J. Redick tonight is facing a Thunder team who is allowing the 23rd most fantasy ppg to SGs and Redick has been red hot averaging over 25 fantasy ppg in his last four. This is going to be a back and forth shootout tonight and Redick is a great way to get a gun in the fight.
More talk about Anthony Davis and how important his status is. If he does not play Eric Gordon gets a huge bump much like Holiday tonight. In his last game he dropped 40 fantasy points with an absent Davis and tonight would face a Houston team allowing the 25th most fantasy ppg to SGs. I only consider him tonight if Davis sits, otherwise I keep walking.
| FanDuel | Draft Kings | ||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Opp | M/G | FGA | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | $ | PTS | $ | PTS |
| James Harden | HOU | NOP | 37.65 | 19.4 | 2.8 | 6.32 | 6.95 | 1.65 | 0.62 | 4.47 | 28.5 | $10,700 | 55.44 | $10,400 | 50.5 |
| Andrew Wiggins | MIN | WAS | 35.03 | 16.37 | 0.59 | 3.64 | 1.92 | 0.83 | 0.61 | 2.22 | 20.71 | $6,400 | 34.19 | $6,300 | 30.2 |
| Jordan Clarkson | LAL | DEN | 32.41 | 13.61 | 1.22 | 4.02 | 2.71 | 1.08 | 0.12 | 1.8 | 15.61 | $6,000 | 27.33 | $6,000 | 26.8 |
| Zach LaVine | MIN | WAS | 25.25 | 11.25 | 1.15 | 3.1 | 3.12 | 0.68 | 0.18 | 1.87 | 13.08 | $5,200 | 23.38 | $5,500 | 23 |
| J.J. Redick | LAC | OKC | 28.53 | 11.76 | 2.67 | 1.76 | 1.44 | 0.56 | 0.04 | 1.04 | 16.62 | $4,900 | 23.83 | $5,300 | 23 |
| Gary Harris | DEN | LAL | 31.59 | 9.59 | 1.33 | 2.87 | 1.78 | 1.28 | 0.22 | 1.35 | 11.33 | $4,800 | 20.28 | $5,000 | 20.6 |
Small Forward
Strategy
Like every roster spot tonight we have tons of options at all price levels in great matchups at SF with tons of possible value waiting in the wings. How you play the small forward tonight all depends on what superstars you are paying up for. I believe this is however among the thinner positions for huge upside so it might behoove you to spend up in some capacity to ensure the points to cash out tonight.
Players
Although I am unsure at this time of my use of Westbrook I am planning on rostering Kevin Durant. He simply has the highest ceiling and is the most stable way I see to get 50 fantasy points out of one player at this position. He scores over 50 fantasy points most nights including his last three games. The matchup could be better with the Clippers allowing the ninth fewest fantasy ppg to SFs but I see very few players who can stop Durant. Although I will not use Westbrook without Durant I will use Durant without Westbrook and may very well do that tonight.
If you want to try and grab 50 fantasy points without spending up for Durant then Paul George may be the route to take. He has the third highest usage rate on the slate among small forwards and has scored over 40 fantasy points in four of his last five games hitting the 50 mark twice. The Bucks are allowing the 25th most fantasy ppg to SFs and If by some chance I move off of Durant then George is the guy I will be leaning on.
You have two options tonight from the Memphis side of things at SF on FanDuel depending on how much risk you are willing to take. Matt Barnes has been tearing it up lately scoring over 30 fantasy points in two of his last four games. He is that matchup-dependent player I only use in a favorable one. Like tonight. The Kings are allowing the 24th most fantasy ppg to SFs and Barnes should feast tonight in this high-scoring affair.
P.J. Hairston is the minimum salary across the industry and starting at SG facing a Kings team allowing the most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. Hairston does have upside for the minimum price as he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in in three of his last four games and is playing well over 25 minutes most nights. He is much riskier than Barnes but keep in mind Barnes is no picnic either.
What is going on with Gorgui Dieng? No one knows. Some kind of personal issue has him M.I.A. His flight could be our value if he sits tonight as Shabazz Muhammad last night played over 30 minutes without him in the starting lineup scoring almost 30 fantasy points on FanDuel. He has combined to score 53.6 fantasy points on FanDuel in both games he has played over 30 minutes in his last 10 and stands to hit that amount again tonight in this game with a huge 220 expected point total. I know I keep saying it but these expected point totals are important.
Evan Turner is not cheap but he is safe. In nine out of his last 10 games he has managed to score 20 fantasy ppg going over the 30 mark on four occasions even topping 40 once versus the Cavaliers on Feb. 5. I expect the Nuggets-Celtics game to be highly overlooked tonight with so many juicier matchups on the board. Turner off the bench is one of the Celtics leading producers and Brad Stevens seems content plugging him in for heavy usage nightly.
| FanDuel | Draft Kings | ||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Opp | M/G | FGA | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | $ | PTS | $ | PTS |
| Kevin Durant | OKC | LAC | 36.06 | 18.98 | 2.58 | 8.11 | 4.58 | 0.96 | 1.25 | 3.21 | 27.91 | $10,600 | 51.8 | $10,200 | 49 |
| Paul George | IND | MIL | 35.4 | 18.13 | 2.68 | 7.05 | 4.17 | 1.83 | 0.32 | 3.55 | 23.37 | $8,700 | 44.54 | $8,600 | 42.3 |
| Evan Turner | BOS | POR | 27.21 | 8.85 | 0.18 | 4.84 | 4.43 | 0.93 | 0.33 | 2.1 | 9.97 | $5,800 | 24.66 | $5,300 | 24.2 |
| Matt Barnes | MEM | SAC | 27.15 | 7.93 | 1.47 | 5.2 | 1.84 | 1.13 | 0.76 | 1.29 | 9.09 | $5,200 | 21.83 | $5,800 | 22.2 |
| Shabazz Muhammad | MIN | WAS | 20.83 | 8.05 | 0.58 | 3.22 | 0.5 | 0.28 | 0.1 | 0.85 | 10.2 | $4,100 | 16.91 | $4,200 | 15.6 |
| P.J. Hairston | MEM | SAC | 19.54 | 5.75 | 1.13 | 2.67 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.15 | 0.5 | 5.96 | $3,600 | 11.56 | $3,700 | 11.8 |
Power Forward
Strategy
To Davis or not to Davis; that is the question. No different here tonight than the other positions. Plenty of options just not many that are super expensive.
Players
Anthony Davis is a GTD with a bad toe like earlier mentioned. The bottom line is he is the best power forward on the slate and also benefits from the best matchup with the Rockets allowing the most fantasy ppg to the power forward position. Davis has the ability to drop 60 fantasy points like nothing when he gets hot or absolutely kill you when he comes out because he tripped on his shoelaces. He is a huge gamble anytime you take him and not for his fantasy production but for his “wimp” factor. For this reason I would not use him in any kind of cash game.
If Davis sits then well, of course, the one guy you, me, Dupree, and the rest of the DFS world will be jumping on is Ryan Anderson. In the last game with Davis out he made a ton of us some money scoring 31 points with 14 rebounds for a FanDuel score of 53.8 fantasy points. His price is only $5,800 on FanDuel and he benefits from the same great matchup as Davis. Sometimes I wonder why they don’t play Davis off the bench and start Anderson. It sure would make all of our lives easier.
Jabari Parker. Say it…Jabari Parker. Again…Jabari Parker. You get the point? I will keep doing this until Parker gives me a reason to stop. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg now in six out of his last seven games going over the 40 mark versus the Hawks and Rockets. Granted he gets a tougher matchup tonight facing a Pacers team allowing the 13th fewest fantasy ppg to PFs but I still feel you ride the hot hand while it stays that way. Just a little to know here, his worst game in the last 10 was versus the Detroit Pistons where he only scored 21.5 fantasy points on FanDuel in 13 minutes (If memory serves he had foul trouble) and they defend the PF slightly better than the Pacers. Understand? Play him.
Zach Randolph is the only other player tonight I am considering from the Grizzlies. Randolph with Marc Gasol watching the games on TV has benefitted immensely. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg now in six of his last nine games going over the 40 mark once versus the Trail Blazers on Feb. 8. His price is not cheap compared to some of the other viable players but he does have a great matchup with the Kings allowing the second most fantasy ppg to the four. Good player + High Usage Rate + Bad Defense = Fantasy Gold. No need to break out the chalk board.
Bobby Portis is the guy I am targeting right now for value. Taj Gibson is considered doubtful for tonight opening the door for a Portis start. With the Bulls banged up there is a nightly source of fantasy value just waiting to have its keg tapped. The problem is it is not always easy deciding what you want to drink. The matchup could be better with the Magic allowing the 18th most fantasy ppg to PFs but at least it is on the right side of the fence. If he starts and he should I will be using him. If it helps he has combined for over 60 fantasy points in his last two games.
In the same game we have value on the other side of the fence. Although I have no objections to using Aaron Gordon and he is a nice safe play the guy I am targeting with Evan Fournier doubtful tonight is Ersan Ilysova. His price is only $4,200 on FanDuel and tonight if he starts in the three he would face a Bulls team allowing the 23rd most fantasy ppg to SFs on the season. In his last game with no Fournier he played 31 minutes and put up over 30 fantasy points. You pair him with Portis tonight you save a fortune.
| FanDuel | Draft Kings | ||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Opp | M/G | FGA | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | $ | PTS | $ | PTS |
| Anthony Davis | NOP | HOU | 35.75 | 18.35 | 0.53 | 10.22 | 1.9 | 1.27 | 2.22 | 2.02 | 24.12 | $10,200 | 49.39 | $10,100 | 46 |
| Zach Randolph | MEM | SAC | 29.13 | 12.37 | 0.06 | 7.87 | 1.74 | 0.59 | 0.19 | 1.44 | 14.54 | $6,600 | 29.04 | $7,000 | 27.9 |
| Jabari Parker | MIL | IND | 30.09 | 10.61 | 0.02 | 5.06 | 1.61 | 0.8 | 0.41 | 1.33 | 12.57 | $6,000 | 24.13 | $6,700 | 23.1 |
| Ryan Anderson | NOP | HOU | 30.82 | 13.88 | 2.07 | 5.93 | 1.02 | 0.61 | 0.39 | 1.39 | 17.07 | $5,800 | 29.21 | $6,100 | 28.4 |
| Bobby Portis | CHI | ORL | 17.72 | 7.36 | 0.31 | 5.31 | 0.64 | 0.54 | 0.38 | 1.05 | 7.59 | $4,400 | 16.48 | $4,800 | 16.7 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | ORL | CHI | 27.58 | 9.77 | 1.5 | 5.42 | 1.06 | 0.73 | 0.52 | 1.13 | 11.33 | $4,200 | 22.31 | $4,400 | 22.4 |
Center
Strategy
How many times have you had to ask yourself this question, to “Boogie” or not to “Boogie”? Tonight is the night to either pay up or go dirt cheap at center. I find most of the options in the mid-priced range tonight to not have enough upside to match their salary.
Players
DeMarcus Cousins is the premier player on the slate every time the Kings take the court. His fantasy numbers are almost video game-like as he has scored over 50 fantasy points in six of his last 10 games hitting the 60 mark once. I have no idea who he is going to be defended by tonight at this time so the defensive matchups mean little. The Grizzlies on the season, though, are allowing the second fewest fantasy ppg to the center position. Just remember if he goes off for 60 fantasy points tonight you will kick yourself for passing on him.
I am struggling with either using Cousins or Dwight Howard tonight if I pay up. Howard has been incredible lately scoring over 40 fantasy points in two of his last four games. He has a great matchup tonight facing a Pelicans team allowing the second fewest fantasy ppg to the center position. The problem I am having is this, if I get 45 fantasy points out of Howard tonight and get 60 fantasy points out of Boogie but save $2,800 on FanDuel, am I going to net those lost fantasy points, plus some, with an upgrade elsewhere? A huge part of lineup construction is figuring out if the move you are considering makes sense. It seems to me Howard is the better play but you have to get 45 fantasy points out of him. Something he has done only once in the last 10 games.
If you read my article on a regular basis right now you are going to say to yourself, “why didn’t I get this one?”
Who is the center I always find a way to use when he gets a great matchup?
If you answered Mason Plumlee you were correct. He is that player who never lets me down when I use him in the right matchup, you know like tonight facing a Celtics frontcourt that gets beat up on a nightly basis. Did I also mention the Celtics are allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to centers? I am not using him in a cash game tonight but if I do one GPP lineup and I am sure I will by night’s end he will be my center. I say he gets 30 fantasy points tonight. Something he has done twice in the last six games.
| FanDuel | Draft Kings | ||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Opp | M/G | FGA | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | $ | PTS | $ | PTS |
| DeMarcus Cousins | SAC | MEM | 34.53 | 20.84 | 1.2 | 11.33 | 3.2 | 1.39 | 1.33 | 3.86 | 27.31 | $10,900 | 54.77 | $10,600 | 50.4 |
| Dwight Howard | HOU | NOP | 32.61 | 9.04 | 12.04 | 1.43 | 1.06 | 1.47 | 2.45 | 14.88 | $8,100 | 37.98 | $7,600 | 35.9 | |
| Mason Plumlee | POR | BOS | 25.57 | 6.36 | 7.66 | 2.72 | 0.79 | 1.05 | 1.92 | 8.9 | $5,200 | 26.4 | $4,800 | 25.3 |
Core Players
At the moment I only have one lineup under construction and my core so far is:
James Harden, Kevin Durant, and DeMarcus Cousins or Dwight Howard (on the ropes).
If I do a GPP lineup it will look something like this:
Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Paul George, and Anthony Davis.
I will post my final core lineups below in the message section on this page later on. I will not be available tonight for the most part after 6 p.m. due to my cook calling in at the bar. Yes, I can cook as well. Why not? Not like I am busy or anything.
Good luck.
Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73
GO DODGERS!