NBA DFS Position Coach: March 1, 2016

So I slept horribly wrong last night and now I can barely move my head. Of all the things that can make a day truly suck this is one of them. Besides writing an article I have a ton of other things to do including inventory at my bar, my orders, a bank trip, shopping, and all the joys of having a house full with a wife, four kids, and a cat that stalks me for attention. I do not even want to think about trying to drive. How busy am I? I get tweets asking fantasy advice that start with, “I know you are awake.”

So the other day I went over a list of contests at FanDuel that I find worthy of playing and today we will continue with this theme. Below is a list of GPPs on DraftKings I deem worthy of play. Keep in mind I only recommend that you play in these contests that are below $9 if that is all your budget allows. You work with what you got.

All of these contests are single-entry and * denotes the top Jerry Colvin approved contests.

NBA Daily Free Contest ** (It is free, everyone should join.)

$1 NBA Daily Dollar

$3 NBA Jumpshot

$5 NBA High Five

$9 NBA Swish *

$9 NBA League (38 entries) *

$12 NBA Fingeroll (This one is scarce and I can only locate it once and awhile.) *

$27 NBA Fast Break *

$27 NBA League (42 entries) *

$50 NBA Alley Oop *

$50 NBA League (22 entries) *

$50 NBA League (11 entries) **

Of course, as you go up in the entry amount your odds only get better. I stopped at $50 because I never play in the GPPs over that amount. Not because I do not want to but because my bankroll never gets high enough to risk playing in them. I make a withdrawal long before that. I have bills to pay. I hope this list above helps you in determining what contests to play in. As far as the other sites go just look for single-entry contests with the least amount of opponents possible. Greed is the real killer of bankrolls. My goal each night is to try and win a few hundred bucks and believe it or not that is reasonable if selecting the right contests. All that stuff you see on TV with the guy who spends $3 and turns it into over $60,000 on FanDuel or DraftKings is like thinking you have a shot at winning the Publishers Clearing House million dollar sweepstakes. Total BS. Play smart and don’t believe the hype.

I cannot express enough to all of you newer DFS players that this, despite what some may say, is a game of skill. Like anything else the longer you do it the better you get at it. It’s all about your ability to spot things and this is something that takes time. In the learning process, we all take our lumps.

Today we have a nice six-game slate that is lacking in superstar firepower which asks the question, do you play value when you do not need it? This is one of those days where you can easily build a safe cash game lineup without worrying about the next guy loading up with minimum salary starters and four-to-five studs, like I did last night. Well, like I do most nights actually. There is a ton of value to be found in the Nets-Lakers game tonight especially from the Brooklyn side.

So with one kid gone for school, the ibuprofen I took starting to ease my neck pain a little bit, and absolutely getting more excited for baseball as each day passes, I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

Strategy

I would take two approaches to this position tonight. For the cash game approach I would attack this slate with one higher priced player paired with one mid-priced player. I find that most of the mid-priced players upside is just a little below the high-priced player’s floor. This tells me that spending up at this position all together is not necessary in cash games. Especially when we are lacking the superstars.

For the GPP approach tonight I would attack this by loading up with the two point guards with the highest ceilings. Although Stephen Curry (GTD – ankle) did not make the position coach article today he is a prime candidate for a GPP lineup tonight. I expect this to be one of the few nights you can get Curry with a lower ownership than normal. On a slate with so much value and only six games, in GPPs you need to figure out a way to shoot for a score on FanDuel upwards of 350, and over 300 on DraftKings. In case you have not noticed the pricing is softening a bit on DraftKings now as well.

Players

My favorite point guard on the slate today is none other than Kemba Walker. Even though this game has the second lowest expected point total of the night at 205.5 and it has blowout risk with Charlotte being 13-point favorites, Walker is hands down the top play. The Phoenix Suns are allowing 24.6 ppg (highest in the NBA) and the second most fantasy ppg to the point guard position. Walker in his last nine games has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in eight of them hitting the 40 mark twice and the 50 mark once. For the price across the industry I find the most bang for your buck here.

The next-best option if you want to keep on walking by Walker is Damian Lillard. Lillard in his last 10 games has scored over 40 fantasy ppg on FanDuel six times going over the 50 mark three times versus Toronto (50.5), Houston (50.1), and the Warriors (73.5). He provides plenty of upside with a great floor for both cash games and GPP lineups. The matchup could be better with the Knicks only allowing the 19^th most fantasy ppg to the point guard position (I prefer 25^th and over if possible) but I am still putting my money on Lillard tonight in what is slated to be a close game with Portland being five-point favorites.

Any of the three below are great options tonight to pair with either Walker or Lillard if you decide not to use them both together.

Jeff Teague is playing the Golden State Warriors in another game with a monster expected point total hovering at 225. The Warriors are also monster favorites according to Vegas as they are giving up 11.5 points. If I was a gambling man I would certainly put my money on Atlanta tonight facing a tired Warriors team on the end of an eight-game road trip. Teague has really stepped things up as of late scoring over 30 fantasy ppg in four of his last seven games and gets a great matchup as well with the Warriors allowing 23.4 ppg (third highest in NBA) and the fourth most fantasy ppg to the point guard position.

As mentioned in my intro I find the Nets-Lakers game to be a bevy of fantasy value tonight with the cheap guys all being on the Brooklyn side. The truth is, while I keep hearing everyone talking about Donald Sloan, and by no means is he a bad play, for a few hundred dollars more you can use D’Angelo Russell. Since getting the starting gig, Russell has been tearing it up to the tune of scoring over 30 fantasy ppg in back-to-back contests facing the tougher defense of the Memphis Grizzlies twice. This game has the third highest expected point total of the evening at 212.5 and if you can believe it the Lakers are two-point favorites. The Nets also are allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg and he is the player I am pairing with Walker as of right now in my cash game lineup.

I am loving a few guys tonight from the Miami side of things. One of those players is Goran Dragic. Although I have seen him get lost in the offense on occasion he has shown some big game capabilities lately with Chris Bosh out scoring over 30 fantasy ppg in four out his last six hitting the 40 mark twice versus the Hawks and Wizards. The Bulls are a mess right now and surrendering the third most fantasy ppg to the point guard position. I prefer him the least of the choices above but I do like him for a nice low owned play tonight to get off the chalk.

Shooting Guard

Strategy

Amazing how this position changes when you do not have to try and fit in James Harden. SG tonight is loaded with options at all price points and this is one of the positions if you so choose to I would use to save a few bucks. In cash games I would spend up a bit choosing one of the top three priced players to pair with a mid-priced player. In GPPs tonight I would spend up and pair him with a bargain basement option.

Players

Although Dwyane Wade is a great play tonight and has been on fire lately, Stephen Curry is a GTD and we all know when Curry sits Thompson becomes the play of the day. I will not be using many Warriors tonight in my lineup but my main man Klay Thompson is the exception. Although the matchup is not great with the Hawks allowing the 18^th most fantasy ppg to SGs Thompson is not your average shooting guard. Not only does he have a high usage rate but he also has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in three of his last five. If Curry sits after lineup lock on FanDuel tonight you will be kicking yourself in the rear if you do not play him.

Jordan Clarkson is the player I currently have sitting next to Thompson in my cash game lineup. His price point across the industry is more than fair for a player who has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in five of his last eight with most of the others going well over the 20 mark. The Nets are allowing 21.7 ppg and the 19^th most fantasy ppg to the two and I say he has a huge bounce-back game versus a Nets team who could be as bad as the Lakers.

If you plan on going heavy with the limited options we have to choose from then you need to save a few bucks somewhere tonight for that GPP lineup. Gerald Henderson I believe will be largely overlooked tonight with most having no problem being able to afford C.J. McCollum. Henderson has scored over 50 fantasy points combined in his last two games and has played over 25 minutes per game in five of his last 10 games with none going under 22. His price is bargain basement across the industry and he is a great pivot for savings tonight.

The best value tonight at shooting guard is Markel Brown. He is the minimum salary across the industry and with Wayne Ellington going through concussion protocol he should get to start against a Lakers team allowing 22.9 ppg (highest in NBA) and the third most fantasy ppg to the shooting guard position. I see no way he does not put up at least 25 fantasy points tonight and I will be using him myself in some form. Keep an eye on this as Ellington as of now is a GTD.

Small Forward

Strategy

I would attack the small forward position tonight much the same as the shooting guard position combining two reliable players with 30-to-40 fantasy point upside in cash games and combining a top star with a bargain basement player in GPP.

Players

The selection is small tonight and we have only one small forward on the slate with a usage rate over 20. That is Carmelo Anthony (25.6). The matchup is bad with the Trail Blazers allowing the sixth fewest fantasy ppg to the small forward position on the season but anytime you have a chance to roster a player who averages 8.3 possessions more than the next player below him I see you no way you fade him. In six out his last nine games he has scored over 40 fantasy points and he is the closest thing you have to a guarantee at the three tonight to get 30 fantasy points on an off day. On the bad side the Trail Blazers are allowing the sixth fewest fantasy ppg to SFs.

Luol Deng is playing at PF tonight facing a Bulls team allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season. Deng has huge upside as he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in four out his last six hitting the 40 mark and 50 mark once. The Bulls overall are a fantasy cash register where, as a team, they are allowing the fifth most fantasy ppg. I would keep my exposure to this game to a minimum tonight with it having the lowest expected point total and if I was to use anyone outside of Deng our Dragic it would certainly be another Miami player.

P.J. Tucker is a nice cheap way to gain some exposure to the Phoenix side of the 205.5 expected point total tonight versus the Hornets. Tucker is only $4,800 on FanDuel and in his last game versus the Grizzlies three nights ago he scored 17 points with 11 rebounds and seven assists to tally over 40 fantasy points. The matchup is certainly good as well with the Hornets allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to SFs.

Bojan Bogdanovic. Not much to say here. He is the minimum salary across the industry and playing heavy minutes. My philosophy on players of his caliber is to never take them in a bad matchup. That is not the case tonight as the Lakers are allowing the most fantasy ppg to SFs on the season. The problem is, even in the right matchup he tends to put up a stinker now and then. As far as value goes this could be the play of night or the highest owned letdown. On a positive note in both of the last two games he played over 30 minutes he scored over 20 fantasy points and I see no reason he doesn’t play heavy minutes again tonight.

Power Forward

Strategy

This is the position tonight I feel in cash and GPP play you need to spend up. I see little in the way of value or bargain priced players I am comfortable playing on a slate where you do not have to force it in.

Players

Thaddeus Young, with all the change, remains a focal point of the Nets offense. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in seven of his last 10 games even hitting the 40 mark versus the Kings on Feb. 5 and 50 versus an equally bad Suns team on Feb. 25. The Lakers are allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to the power forward position and with the Nets playing as the underdogs Young should be in for plenty of minutes tonight which has huge possibilities.

Aaron Gordon continues to be a constant source of fantasy value. In the last 10 games he has scored over 30 fantasy points nine times. How is that for consistency? The last time he faced the Mavericks on Feb. 19 he scored seven points with 11 rebounds to tally a FanDuel score of 31.7. That was also the last time he played less than 30 minutes. The Mavericks are allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to the power forward position and Gordon tonight is about as close a thing there is to a must play if one existed.

It feels like it has been quite some time since we checked in on our elven friends in the forest. The last I heard all was still quiet and the truce between the elves of marshmallow and the elves of Keebler still was in place. The elven lord Kristaps Porzingis, deep in his Latvian castle, has been able to practice and hone his skills with the spoils of war behind him. In his last nine games he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg six times even hitting the 40 mark once. The matchup could be better with the Trail Blazers allowing the 19^th most fantasy ppg to PFs but Porzingis does have one of the higher usage rates among starting power forwards on the slate. I like him better myself for GPP play with other similar priced players in better matchups.

To be honest, if I was going to go cheap in any capacity at PF tonight then the only players I am even considering at this time is Mirza Teletovic or David Lee. Teletovic has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in six straight hitting the 30 and 40 mark once while Lee since coming to Dallas by way of Boston is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg in his last two. They both provide decent upside for under the price of $5,000 on FanDuel and each would be worth a flyer in GPP and even deserve some cash game consideration as to whether or not I use them…I still believe spending up is the best option.

Center

Strategy

We have five centers by my count that all are great plays for around the same price range and one viable player under $7,000 who I believe has a real shot at 40 fantasy points tonight. This article would be worthless if I gave you six centers on a six-game slate to choose from. So below are the only two I am rolling out tonight at this time.

Players

My favorite player tonight at the center position is Al Horford. On a slate with a bevy of centers with 40-to-50 fantasy point upside all with decent matchups for the most part It really came down to the whole record versus opponent thing. Al Horford the last time he faced the Golden State Warriors absolutely dismantled them on Feb. 22 scoring 23 points, 16 rebounds, six assists, and five blocks for a fantasy score in excess of 60 points. The Warriors are allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to the center position and Horford has the fourth highest usage rate on the slate for starting centers. He is my guy in cash games tonight.

In the last five games Robin Lopez has scored over 30 fantasy points in three of them hitting the 40 mark once. He has the best defensive matchup on the Knicks tonight with the Trail Blazers allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to the four. His price is starting to rise across the industry but he still remains the best player next to Horford tonight for the price and I am rolling him out in my GPP lineup.

Core Players

Cash Game Core: Kemba Walker / Klay Thompson / Carmelo Anthony / Thaddeus Young / Al Horford

GPP Core: Damian Lillard / Kemba Walker / Klay Thompson / Carmelo Anthony / Draymond Green

Please note that Draymond Green did not make the position coach due to the uncertainty of Stephen Curry because, well, it matters. If Curry plays tonight I will remove him from my GPP lineup and swap out Kemba Walker for Stephen Curry…somehow. You can also downgrade Green to Paul Millsap but be advised his last outing versus Golden State was than stellar.

Good luck.

Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73

GO DODGERS!