NBA DFS Position Coach: February 25, 2016

There is an amazing thing happening at my house right now. It is dead quiet. I mean no kids, no wife, not even a cat bothering me. Just complete silence. I can even hear the refrigerator running. Perhaps I should get up and go catch it. I cannot afford another if it gets away.

Last night I lost but I really cannot complain as I have had a hot three-night stretch. It is nice to have that little cushion again in your account. Last month was kind of tough as I had to empty my DFS accounts to pay some bills. I left very little in each to play with and on top of it I went on a five-night losing streak right after. The second of the season. So at this point I basically am playing a skeleton amount of DFS NBA. Which if fine by me with the MLB season around the corner and DFS with it.

You may remember an earlier Position Coach article where I shamed Yahoo! for not offering single-entry tournaments. Well, they have finally caught on and you can now play in single-entry GPP’s on the site. I threw in $10 this morning and will see what magic I can make happen. I like the format on the site but I just felt with them partnering with DFS sites and not offering single entry GPP’s they were feeding their relatively new customer base to the sharks. And that, my friends, is the kind business I will not support. So good job Yahoo! in correcting this. You got me back.

So I remembered last night why I stopped doing the nightly FanDuel leagues. They do not fill. There is a few of you like Rohit Basan who get in every night regardless whether we end up playing for free or not. Let me tell you he is one of our quieter and craftier subscribers who puts in good lineups more often than not. Like last night. He won our five-man tournament. I am just sad it ended up being free due to missing a sixth. He is there every time we play and he certainly deserved the pot. Even if it is only $27. As for me? I came in the bottom. It happens. We play for very little money but in my opinion it is a lot of fun. I love looking at our subscriber's lineups.

We have a nice six-game slate with a ton of high expected point totals. The reality is that for DFS purposes we only have five games. Unless you are trying to get sneaky I cannot imagine any reason to take any player from the Spurs-Jazz game tonight. One of the first things you do when breaking down a slate is start a process of elimination. For instance, once you remove the Spurs-Jazz game from the equation you can also void all the expected point totals on the slate. Why? It is a wash they are all basically the same. 222, 217.5, 222, 208.5, and 222. You catch my drift. Noticing these little things from the start can save you valuable time. Trust me.

On another note after a nice discussion with a subscriber or two I feel it would better the article to at least reference usage rates when applicable. For instance, when they are really low or really high. I do not want to get crazy with this but if some of you want it I will do it. After all, you subscribers are what makes all this happen.

With so many games with similar projections I recommend spreading your offense around tonight to maximize the exposure to all the high point totals. In other words if you are a NBA stacker this is not a good night for it.

So knowing that in a few minutes my house will go from art museum quiet to Grand Central Station, I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

Well last night I was not willing to touch a point guard under $5,000 on FanDuel, but tonight I will have exposure to two of them. But first thing's first…

Stephen Curry is one of the two players I would be willing to spend up for tonight at PG. As I have said previously anytime the Warriors have a line where they are favored by less than 10 I am willing to roster Curry in a good matchup regardless of price. Well tonight everything has lined up just so as the Warriors are only favored by eight points facing the Orlando Magic. Curry has scored over 50 fantasy ppg in six of his last eight putting up over 60 fantasy points versus the Wizards on Feb. 3. He is coming off back-to-back games in which he has scored over 30 points and just missed the 60 fantasy point mark. Tonight he is facing a Magic team that is allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season and I will have Curry in one of my two lineups tonight.

The other player I will have exposure to tonight is Damian Lillard. Of all the games on the slate I expect the Rockets-Trail Blazers game to end up being the highest-scoring game of the evening. It has a close line with the Trail Blazers being five-point favorites which always makes me feel just a little better. Lillard has a slightly higher usage rate than Stephen Curry and has scored over 30 points in five straight games including a 51-point performance versus Golden State on Feb. 19. His fantasy production has also been stellar scoring over 50 fantasy ppg in two out of his last four. The matchup could be better with the Rockets allowing the 16^th most fantasy ppg to the one but Lillard still gets my call tonight. Did I mention you also get the whole “late bullet” thing here?

The only point guard I like tonight at the mid-priced level is Jrue Holiday. I think it would be foolish to not get a little exposure to the Thunder-Pelicans game tonight regardless of what I view for the most part as unfavorable matchups. The Thunder are allowing the 19^th most fantasy ppg to the point guard position and Holiday off the bench has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in six straight with four of them being over 40 and one over 50. His price is fair and depending on how you spend elsewhere you could pair Holiday with a Curry or Lillard and possibly get 100 fantasy points between the two.

Donald Sloan has put together a few decent games lately. He is actually averaging over 25 fantasy ppg over his last four. The Nets-Suns game tonight represents a bevy of fantasy value and this is the game where I believe you can insert a few players to help you spend up on some studs. Although this game has one of the lower expected point total of the evening at 208.5 it is also a treasure trove of great matchups. The Suns are allowing 24.5 ppg (highest in the NBA) and the second most fantasy ppg to the point guard position on the season and I see no way Sloan is not a viable option tonight. Just keep in mind both Sloan and my next guy have low usage rates for point guards. So you always have a little risk they get lost in the offense.

Ronnie Price is the minimum salary across the industry and is a nice punt option tonight at the point guard position. The Nets are allowing the third most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season and Price for the price could net you 25 fantasy points tonight in this game which features the Bad News Bears playing the Bad News Bears of the NBA. Price in his last game versus the Clippers on Monday night played 27 minutes scoring 26.5 fantasy points on FanDuel.

To Mack or not to Mack…I will not be macking.

Shooting Guard

There is only one shooting guard on the slate who has scored more than 50 fantasy ppg in four straight and has a usage rate that rivals the best of point guards. That is Fozzy the Beard, or James Harden. I am telling you now that Harden is the guy tonight to build your lineup around. The shooting guard position tonight offers crap in the way of value and I have no plans on taking any risk tonight at the position. I am locking it down with Harden and another mid-priced player. With Houston being 4.5-point underdogs tonight and a high expected point total like earlier mentioned I expect this game to be the shootout at the OK Corral. Especially at the two guard.

You will have to make a decision the way I see it between C.J. McCollum and Harden tonight but getting both in your lineup appears extremely tricky if you spend up at the point guard position or do not plan on going bargain hunting the rest of the way. Although I usually love Klay Thompson I prefer McCollum tonight with him putting up similar numbers. I like to ride the hot hand in the better matchup. The Rockets are allowing 21.4 ppg (second highest in NBA) and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season and I am 100 percent going to use McCollum in my lineup without Harden.

Any of the next three players are great options to pair with either a Harden or McCollum tonight.

Avery Bradley, of course, is my favorite of the three but I am a huge Celtics fan so the possibility of me being bias is quite high. I plan on having a few players in this game and Bradley is certainly one of the better options. The Bucks are allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to the two guard on the season and Bradley has 30 fantasy point upside in the right matchup. The last time Bradley faced the Bucks he scored 29.8 fantasy points on FanDuel in 38 minutes. I will use one Celtic and one Buck tonight. Just still deciding who.

I am loving me some Joe Johnson but hating FanDuel for not having him at SF yet where we are devoid of great options tonight. Johnson has scored over 25 fantasy ppg in three straight hitting the 30 mark versus the Trail Blazers on Tuesday night who defend SF's well. The Suns are allowing 21.3 ppg (second highest in NBA) and the most fantasy ppg to the small forward position and for the price Johnson is what I consider a very safe play.

Victor Oladipo has been on fire lately. He is averaging over 40 fantasy ppg in the last three. Although the matchup is not favorable with the Warriors allowing the 11^th fewest fantasy ppg to the SG's this is a number that is trending downward. At one point they were near the top defensively. I prefer Oladipo the least of these three but he has the highest ceiling.

Small Forward

If there was one place tonight I would see it feasible to insert a player from the Spurs-Jazz game it would be at SF. This position is an absolute nightmare tonight with little in the way of great options. The stars all have middle-of-the-road matchups with middle-of-the-road numbers versus their opponents. I am not paying $10,200 on FanDuel for Kevin Durant to put up 33.6 fantasy points like he did on Feb. 11 when he faced the Pelicans.

Of all the games I find the best two options for the price tonight are both Celtics. You could either insert Jae Crowder or Evan Turner tonight.

Crowder over his last five games has picked it back up scoring over 30 fantasy ppg in three out of his last five games hitting the 40 mark versus the Timberwolves on Tuesday night.

Turner has continued to put up great numbers off the bench scoring over 30 fantasy ppg in five out his last nine hitting the 40 mark versus a tough Cleveland team on Feb. 5. The Bucks are allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to the three and you could consider pairing them both together tonight.

Harrison Barnes is a good option on a crappy slate but a crappy option on a good slate. Tonight, Barnes is a viable punt play with limited upside. In four out of his last seven games he has been able to score 20 fantasy points which is much safer than most of the options tonight. The Magic are allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to the three on the season which is one of the better matchups in this game.

Giannis Antetokounmpo I believe for much cheaper has the same upside as Durant. He also has the third highest usage rate on the slate behind Durant and Gordon Hayward and he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in seven of his last 10 with a few monster games thrown in including his last one where he scored 69.4 fantasy points on FanDuel Monday night versus the Lakers in 42 minutes. If I decide to spend up it will be with the “Greek God”.

Power Forward

The PF has some nice value tonight and a few big guns to choose from.

If you are going to spend up on any power forward tonight I would use Anthony Davis. Although this game has a high expected point total it is full of bad matchups and with two other games with the same expected point total with good matchups my model is pulling me heavily away from this game. I do, however, feel the best way to gain exposure to it tonight it is through Davis. You have a lot more viable shooters on the Thunder compared to the Pelicans. Davis also has a usage rate at point guard level that is the highest among the power forwards on the slate. I faded him in his last game but tonight he will be in one of my two lineups. The Thunder are allowing the fifth fewest fantasy ppg to PF's on the season but Davis is not your average power forward and also is a player who has the ability to explode for 60 fantasy point games at any time.

How about Aaron Gordon? I mean he is on the fast track to become almost a must play on a daily basis regardless of matchup because from what I see it does not matter. In his last six games he faced the Hawks (twice), Spurs, Mavericks, Pacers, and Sixers. Outside of Philadelphia he has dominated versus some pretty tough teams. The Warriors are allowing the 13^th fewest fantasy ppg to the four on the season but the Spurs are allowing the sixth fewest and he put up over 30 fantasy points against them.

Jabari Parker. Say it. Jabari Parker. Now say it again. Jabari Parker. He is averaging over 35 fantasy ppg in the last four and tonight faces a Celtics team I am sad to say allows the 26^th most fantasy ppg to the four on the season. His price on FanDuel is way too low at $5,600 and I cannot imagine why everyone will not take advantage of it. Regardless of the site he is a great play tonight.

Every once and awhile Jon Leuer becomes fantasy relevant for a spell. Like tonight. Kris Humphries may be starting but the way I see it he is little more than a body for fantasy purposes. In the last three games Leuer off the bench has scored 27.2, 28.4, and 20.7 fantasy points on FanDuel. His price is near the minimum salary across the industry and tonight he is facing a Brooklyn team allowing the 20^th most fantasy ppg to the four. He is a great punt play tonight or GPP play.

Center

We have three viable expensive centers all with similar upside and decent matchups. Of the three if I am going to spend up it will be on Dwight Howard. I cannot remember the last time, if any, I used Howard this season and I certainly do not remember him making any Position Coach articles anytime. But it has been a long season. He is averaging nearly 40 fantasy ppg in his last five and the last two games he faced the Portland Trail Blazers he dominated scoring 42.8 and 45.6 fantasy points on Feb. 6 and Feb. 10. Portland is allowing the 20^th most fantasy ppg to the center position on the season.

The guy I am running in my second lineup tonight is Steven Adams. Not a relative of Sam or John as far as I know. He has been putting up decent numbers lately scoring over 20 fantasy points in three of his last five hitting 30 and 40 once. Tonight he gets to face a Pelicans team allowing the second most fantasy ppg to the center position and for the price I am willing to take a flyer here.

Good luck tonight.

Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73

GO DODGERS!