NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 27, 2015

Living with five women at times is trying, to say the least. My house is a constant source of information with our four girls should you need advice on Minecraft, Teen Titans Go, or Adventure time. If you find yourself in need of a doll then we have a full room of them from which to choose. We have ones that cry, ones that eat and poop, and some creepy ones that go off for no reason at all at odd hours of the night.

My wife and I run a strict house. We have to as we are outnumbered two-to-one after all. The four girls are still at the age where they share one big room together. Two sets of bunkbeds and plenty of room to spare. At one time we allowed them to have a television in their room but we decided it best to take it out. One day when Abby (the 10 year old) was misbehaving my wife sent her to her room. On her way by I made a joking remark, “Get in kids jail”.

This term has stuck ever since. Now if your behavior is such that you need to be punished we hand out kids jail sentences. They go to their room for a disclosed amount of time with no television and only a book to read. This sharpens their reading skills and teaches them a lesson. I am sad to say they are repeat offenders quite often. When this happens we will, in addition to kids jail time, require a written report on the book you are reading to be freed. Where am I going with this?

Hanna (the three year old) has come to the age where we decided she needs her first kid’s jail time. It happens to be on a day my wife works so I am writing an article right now while Hanna sings Old McDonald and intermittently begs to be freed before her time is up. Oh, boy.

So with a singing/crying Hanna in the background, I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

I will be taking the one superstar and one value player approach today at the point guard position. I believe we have a few cheap options who could get us 30 points for half the cost of the players who will get us 35. If you are crafty enough to use two stud players at point guard I certainly would not object. That will be the approach to my GPP lineup.

The last time Russell Westbrook played the Minnesota Timberwolves he had a triple-double scoring 12 points with 11 rebounds and 10 assists. Tonight the Thunder are 8.5-point favorites versus the very same Timberwolves in a game with a high 210 expected point total. The Timberwolves are allowing 22.9 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season and as long as this does not become a blowout Westbrook should give you 50 fantasy points tonight.

If I decide to pull of Westbrook the man I am looking at is Kemba Walker. The Hornets are all banged up, much like the Suns are right now, which is giving Walker major minutes. In the last seven games Walker has played more than 40 minutes five times scoring over 70 fantasy points the last time he faced the Utah Jazz on Jan. 18^th. The Jazz may be allowing the seventh fewest fantasy ppg to point guards on the season but they also are allowing 21.3 ppg as well. Walker’s price has risen but I still feel he is the next best option after Westbrook if not equal to him. Both are cash game viable.

Although I love Isaiah Thomas at this point I do not see the need to pay for what he is going to give you on a good night which is around 35-to-40 fantasy points. The guy I am looking at right now to pair with either Walker or Westbrook on FanDuel is Marcus Smart. Smart is playing over 30 minutes now on most nights and is becoming more involved in Brad Stevens’s offense. In the last seven games he has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg four times going over the 40 mark once. The Nuggets are allowing 23 ppg and the 3^rd most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season and for the low price of $5,500 on FanDuel I am all over this matchup.

Raul Neto is undergoing concussion protocol and has been ruled out for tonight’s Hornets-Jazz game. This opens the door for Trey Burke to pick up more of the workload. As we know in DFS basketball minutes most of the time equals fantasy points. Burke off the bench has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg four times going over 30 once versus the very same Hornets team. Although the matchup could still be better on paper his price is low at $4,700 on FanDuel tonight.

How much bravado do you have? With the Suns all banged up as well once again Archie Goodwin is in for big minutes. He pulled it out last night scoring over 40 fantasy points versus the Sixers. Yes, the Sixers. Tonight if you are brave enough Goodwin is facing the Cavaliers and should see major minutes facing a team that is allowing the 21.3 ppg and the 21^st most fantasy ppg to the point guard position on the season. I prefer Smart right now but if I find myself in need of the extra money I will move to Goodwin. He has the best DVP matchup for the Suns tonight.

Shooting Guard

The shooting guard position tonight outside of James Harden and Klay Thompson is basically all the same player. You are looking at 20-to-30 fantasy point upside for the $4,500 to $5,500 price range on FanDuel.

The first player who jumped off the page blowout risk aside is J.R. Smith. He is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg over the last three games and tonight is facing a Suns team allowing 20.5 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. His price is low at $5,000 on FanDuel and he is locked in my early cash game lineup.

You know I always love to get those Celtics into the lineup. It is without a doubt the one game I will be watching tonight. Avery Bradley is that kind of player where every couple of games he has a really good one. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in eight straight going over the 30 mark three times versus Phoenix, Dallas, and Chicago. The Nuggets are allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season and Bradley is a great way to get some exposure to that high 209.5 expected point total tonight.

Sometimes you have to make a choice between going to see a bad sequel or if you are a religious man church. The next two player’s both rank the same in my model and depending on how much money you have to work with either is a fine option.

Church is usually early in the morning so one thing I like to do is go watch the Pope give mass and head to Kentucky Fried Chicken for a bucket of extra crisply. Then I would go to FanDuel and take a look at Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The Sixers are allowing 21.3 ppg and the 19^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. KCP is playing major minutes nightly scoring over 30 fantasy ppg in two of the last six averaging over 25 fantasy ppg. His price is fair and lately he is rather reliable scoring over 20 fantasy ppg in six straight.

After lunch I would proceed to the local movie theatre to watch a bad sequel. I believe by this point in the season I will just hand the gentleman in the ticket window my $5,200 on FanDuel and ask him for one pass to see “The Chronicles of J.J. Redick”.

Well just when I was getting worried Blake Griffin was coming back rendering Redick useless unless in the best of matchups he has decided to embarked on his own career in action movies. Apparently he is in practice to be the next Steven Seagal. Only time will tell but we do have 4-to-6 weeks to think about it.

Meanwhile back in the NBA Redick with Griffin out continues to benefit. He has put up back-to-back games scoring over 20 fantasy ppg and tonight faces a Hawks team who is allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season in a game with a high 209 expected point total. For the price I like him just as much as the Pope.

For the minimum to near minimum across the industry at the time of writing this article Nik Stauskus is slated to start in the two tonight providing Jakarr Sampson (respiratory infection) does not play which more than likely will be the case. Last night Stauskus scored over 25 fantasy points versus the Thunder but tonight faces a Detroit team allowing the 16.6 ppg (the second fewest in NBA) and the 14^th fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards. Your call on this one but GPP only for sure.

Small Forward

I find the value tonight at the small forward position minimal. I think to maximize the efficiency of your lineup this position is one where you want to spend up for players with a higher floor and huge upside. I am avoiding value myself in cash games and going with one stud player and one semi-stud.

The first guy I am going with tonight is the King LeBron James. LeBron-Bron and the rest of the Cavaliers are still trying to show the world why the recent coaching change is necessary and a huge portion of the media is focusing on this. Basketball players have ego’s larger than the basketball they are playing with much like football players. They beat their chest and get quite fired up. Do not get me wrong I do not think this is a bad thing. I see some players make gestures that downright amuse me. LeBron has scored over 100 fantasy points in the last two games combined and tonight faces a decimated Phoenix team playing heavy minutes nightly who is allowing 20.5 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season but that ugly blowout risk is still a concern.

If you do not like LeBron tonight than I would at least consider using Kevin Durant. Although he is playing in back-to-back games he is the only other small forward on the slate with the firepower James has. In three of his last six games Durant has scored more than 50 fantasy points going over 60 once. Minnesota runs just on the wrong side of the tracks defensively allowing the 18^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards but I cannot see on what planet you do not get at least 45 fantasy points out of Durant tonight.

The player I have currently have paired with James on FanDuel in my early cash game lineup is Kawhi Leonard. There is not a lot I like about taking any Spurs on most nights. It seems every time I do I watch my players sit on the bench the entire fourth cheering the bench players on. Tonight could likely be the same with San Antonio being 10-point favorites but with Houston allowing 21 ppg and the fourth most fantasy ppg to small forwards I am willing to take the risk. Keep in mind, most of the games tonight have blowout risk.

Chandler Parsons actually scores very low tonight in my model. This is one of them situations where my gut is telling me otherwise. Parsons is absolutely on fire right now scoring over 30 fantasy ppg in four straight games going over the 40 mark twice. This game tonight has the highest expected point total of the night at 215 and Parsons sure seems like a great way to get some of it. Golden State is allowing the 12^th fewest fantasy ppg to small forwards but I will still find some use for him in GPP play tonight.

Marcus Morris scares me but he does some show promise on some occasions. Most of these occasions happen to be against teams that struggle to defend the small forward position. Morris has scored more than 25 fantasy ppg in four of his last six games and tonight faces a Sixers team allowing 21.3 ppg (second highest in NBA) and the most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season. I just cannot stomach him in cash games but I might pair him with Parsons in a GPP.

Power Forward

I am not sure how exactly I am going tonight but I will be using some of or all of the players tonight in a few lineups.

If you are spending up tonight the only player I would spend up on is Draymond Green. He has huge upside although we have not seen it much as of late. The Mavericks are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season and as long as Green gets the minutes he should achieve value. On my end for the price and the risk of reduced minutes to blowout, especially with Dirk Nowitzki ruled out for tonight I would only use him in a boom or bust GPP.

I much prefer the cheaper options tonight and one player I have in my early cash game lineup tonight is David West. With Tim Duncan out tonight and LaMarcus Aldridge playing center West is starting against a Houston team allowing 23.1 ppg and the most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season. Howard is back and Ariza has moved back to the three for Houston so he should draw Capela. Regardless I am using him. Keep in mind when you use guys like this you always risk him playing much fewer minutes than you expect. Especially if he starts out ice cold. His price is only $4,500 on FanDuel and this is as far as I would go in this game besides Leonard.

Value does not come without risk but anytime you have a player starting in a game with the highest expected point total of the evening who has shown some upside you have to take notice. Dwight Powell is starting tonight with Dirk Nowitzki taking the night off. The matchup could be better with Golden State allowing the 13^th fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards but he is the minimum price. I am on the ropes on this one because Charlie Villanueva could swoop in if Powell is cold and steal the minutes. For this reason I would use him in GPP only.

Ersan Ilysova is among a bevy of Detroit players tonight who are playable. He has scored over 25 fantasy ppg in seven of his last ten games going over 30 fantasy ppg four times. The Sixers are allowing 22.5 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season and for Ilysova’s low $5,700 price tag on FanDuel he is hard to not take a stab at. You could use him in cash or GPP.

Amir Johnson is so overdue for a big game it is sickening. He has the ability to get you 30 fantasy points. The problem is he does not always have the ability to secure the minutes. The Nuggets are allowing 22.7 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season. His price is low at $4,900 on FanDuel and is fair across the rest of the industry. You either get 25 fantasy points or 14. Who knows? The matchup is certainly right.

Center

I am going to make this simple. For the near minimum across the industry you select Spencer Hawes and run with it. The Hornets are all banged up and he should continue to get major minutes. He is averaging around 30 fantasy ppg over the last three and is coming off a day off. Tonight the matchup sucks I will admit that with the Jazz allowing the second fewest fantasy ppg to centers but if he plays 35 minutes I see no way he does not get 25 fantasy points tonight and free up a ton of cash. I think this game stays close and if a game is going to go to OT I say it is this one.

If you feel as though you cannot trust Hawes then I would consider going back to the well with Tyson Chandler tonight. Last night he played less than 20 minutes which I am sure has something to do with his recent workload. I expect him to get the majority of the minutes tonight and bounce back in a tough matchup against a Cleveland team allowing the fewest fantasy ppg centers. I also believe after last night and with this matchup he will be really low owned.

If you are going to spend up the player I would do so with is DeAndre Jordan tonight. Jordan much like Redick with Griffin playing the real life version of “Mike Tyson’s Punch Out” benefits from his absence. He is averaging over 35 fantasy ppg and tonight faces a Hawks team allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to centers on the season. If I move off of Hawes I will upgrade to Jordan in cash games.

Good luck tonight and I will be hosting a live chat at 6 pm EST with Mark Kaplan to answer all your fantasy questions…at least NBA ones.