NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 1, 2016

I feel I have not written an article since last year. So it is nice to finally be back. While the world was out getting drunk, I was sound asleep by 9 pm. I hope everyone had a safe and happy New Year’s.

So I basically faded all the value last night in the attempt to make sure I hit the 300 mark to cash all my 50/50’s. It worked. When I build my lineups and write this article, that is always the goal I have in mind. What is the ultimate goal? To keep playing without having to make deposits. Trust me when I say this makes DFS much more enjoyable.

The truth is, unless you are the type of guy (I am not) who has it in such a way that you can afford to throw five figures into your bankroll, you are going to have to settle for being the guy I am -- someone who plays around a $100 per night across the three sites and manages to get a few hundred bucks a month out of each one. The guys like us are the true grinders. We work harder because a bad night hurts much more for us then our wealthier counterparts. It does not make a guy a bad person because he has more money to start, just more fortunate. While I have to battle it out with 4,000 of my best friends for $10 they get to battle it out with 40 of theirs for $300, both netting nearly the same pot. Catch my drift? So how do we get to this next level?

We get to this next level by grinding away night after night and awaiting the one big hit. That one night where you find yourself in a spot to win ten grand for your $2. Now you can play 10-percent of your bankroll ($1,000) per night, jump into a $300 GPP and hammer $700 in 50/50’s. That is how I would roll if so inclined. The reality is I would withdraw $9,500 just as I withdraw $500 now every time I get to the $1,000 mark and start grinding again. My family needs the money more than FanDuel.

Happy New Year! 

Point Guard

Ish Smith, since being relegated to the Sixers, has been amazing. He has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in two straight while posting one double-double and just missing the second by one assist. Not only do you get the late bullet with Smith tonight but the matchup could not be better. The Sixers are 4.5 point underdogs to a terrible Lakers team allowing 23.7 ppg and the most fantasy ppg in the NBA to point guards. I knew the minute I saw the schedule he was going into my cash game lineup.

The other guy I instantly inserted into my cash game lineup tonight was John Wall. Wall has scored more than 40 fantasy ppg in six straight, going over the 50-mark in his last game versus the Raptors on 12/30. Wall has 10 double-doubles in the last 11 games and remains the best shooter the Wizards have, facing an Orlando team tonight allowing 20 ppg to point guards.

With the Dallas Mavericks allowing 22.2 ppg and the 20^th most fantasy ppg to point guards it is hard to ignore Goran Dragic. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three straight, going over the 30-mark versus the Magic the day after Christmas. His price is low, his matchup is great and he does have that 25 fantasy point upside. I just prefer the two above much more making him a better GPP play than cash game option.

Jose Calderon has been quietly tearing it up lately. In the last four games he has scored over 20 fantasy points three times, hitting the 30 mark once. The Bulls are allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to point guards which is a trend I fully see continuing tonight. For the price he makes a great flyer in a GPP.

FanDuel has been nice enough to leave Isaiah Canaan in the one today even though he is steadily playing in the two. This gives us a great second chance at double exposure to the Lakers who are allowing 23.1 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. Canaan is suffering from a slight touch of Porzingis syndrome though, where he is putting up good numbers every other game. In his last game he scored over 20 fantasy points so by the law of Kristaps, he is due for a dud. That is, of course, if you believe in that sort of thing.

Shooting Guard

DeMar DeRozan is the top play tonight at the shooting guard position and also has the highest upside. In the last seven games he has scored more than 40 fantasy points four times, going over 50 once. On these small slates it is vital to hit these one or two players who are in a position to have a monster game and what better matchup than the Hornets who are allowing 24.4 ppg to shooting guards (highest in NBA) and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg as well. Already have him locked and loaded.

The other guy I have hanging with DeRozan at the top is Evan Fournier. He plays major minutes on a nightly basis and Elfrid Payton being all banged up certainly helps. He has back-to-back 30 fantasy point games and tonight gets the Wizards who are allowing 22.9 ppg and the 27^th most fantasy ppg on the season to shooting guards. This one seems easy.

Jimmy Butler is always a top option at shooting guard whenever he plays. He is averaging over 35 fantasy ppg and has put up more than 40 fantasy points in two of the last four. The Knicks are allowing 21.5 ppg to shooting guards and if you do not want to use DeRozan then I believe you need to at least insert Butler or both if you so choose.

Two Lakers? I know this statement sounds crazy but FanDuel doing what they do have Kobe Bryant who has been playing in the three for quite awhile in the two spot still. Kobe has been playing quite well lately putting up good numbers against weaker defenses like the one he faces tonight. The Sixers are allowing the most fantasy ppg to small forwards in the NBA and Kobe could easily get over 30 fantasy points tonight.

If you do not trust Kobe then the actual guy playing in the two tonight is Lou Williams. Williams has scored nearly 30 fantasy points on FanDuel in back to back games and with the Sixers allowing 22.2 ppg to shooting guards he has a great shot at that elusive 30 mark tonight for cheap.

Small Forward

The very first guy that jumped off the page and also the guy who scores highest in my model at the SF position tonight is Tobias Harris. The Wizards are allowing the most points to shooting guards in the NBA and the 2^nd most fantasy ppg. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in five straight going over 30 three times. Upside is what I am looking for and he has the ability to have a monster game and score 40 fantasy points in a great matchup like when he played Portland on 12/18 scoring 48.4 fantasy points on FanDuel.

Otto Porter since coming back is on fire. He has scored over 30 fantasy points in two straight. The matchup is the middle-of-the-road tonight facing an Orlando team allowing the 14^th fewest fantasy ppg to small forwards but as long as Beal remains sidelined Porters usage rate is going to be higher negating some of the low defensive score. I am using him in my cash games tonight.

If you do not want to spend up Jared Dudley could be worth a flyer in a GPP. His price is dirt cheap and tonight playing in the four he faces an Orlando team that needs some kind of Magic to stop power forwards as they are surrendering more than 20 ppg to them. He scored over 30 fantasy points in his last game versus the Raptors but I would be happy to get 20 out of him.

Carmelo Anthony remains one of the greatest players I never use. I am however going to use him tonight in my GPP lineup though. This I swear. Carmelo is averaging over 36 fantasy ppg and is averaging over 40 fantasy ppg in the last two. Tonight he faces a Bulls team allowing the 21^st most fantasy points to small forwards and Anthony should easily have his way with them.

Power Forward

Nerlens Noel is putting up pretty good numbers lately. If you call scoring over 30 fantasy points in three straight good. How about he just missed 40 versus the Kings in his last game. Tonight Noel gets to play the wonderful Lakers who hand out fantasy points like candy at Halloween. They are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards and Noel should easily get 35 fantasy points tonight.

Chris Bosh tonight is easily the top option tonight at the PF position if you want to pay up. Bosh has scored more than 40 fantasy ppg in three of the last four. With the Mavericks allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards Bosh could be in for another big night. Just keep in mind the best part about Bosh is for the most part he is dependable.

Much like last night I am really trying to avoid the extreme value whenever possible. With so few superstars to choose from I just do not see the need.

If you do not want to spend for Noel but want more anti Laker exposure then FanDuel still has Jerami Grant at the four even though he is in the three. He had a huge night versus the Kings in his last game scoring over 40 fantasy points. That is not something I would hope for but the reality is with the Lakers allowing nearly 20 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards he has a real shot at 25 for peanuts.

If you read my articles, you will remember me having written that every time I take Luis Scola, he nearly kills my lineup or just absolutely drives it into the ground. Well, he did. He gave me a whopping 13.9 fantasy points on FanDuel in his last game. I felt like lighting my head on fire and putting it out with a hammer. So how do I fix his rear? I take him again. The Hornets are allowing 20.4 ppg and the 27^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards. He has the best matchup in the Toronto starting five today and for this reason and the high 20 point upside for peanuts I will try him again.

Pau Gasol has been writing letters to the housing authorities at FanDuel, asking them to move him into the center spot where he has been playing. Due to some political red tape he has to wait for the next available opening in the power forward living quarters. This may not be the truth but you what is? The Knicks are allowing 21.5 ppg and 20^th most fantasy ppg to centers. Gasol prior to his last game versus the Pacers scored over 40 fantasy points in three straight games. His price is high but if you can afford him and do not like Bosh then lock him in.

Center

Jahlil Okafor and Roy Hibbert score equally the highest in my model today. Hibbert in my opinion despite what my model says is just not an option. That is why you still have to use the one thing that you cannot plug into any model. Common sense. Okafor however is the guy currently sitting in my cash game lineup. The Lakers are allowing 21.8 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg to centers on the season. Okafor has a decent price tag and when he gets hot in the right matchup can easily get you over 30 fantasy points. I might move onto my next guy but at the moment it is Okafor.

Nikola Vucevic let me down the last time I took him. For his price I am counting him to at least give me 40 fantasy points.  I consider anything less for over $8,000 on FanDuel a bust. My sense of value and most experts are different. I am aware of this. Anyhow, Vucevic prior to his last game has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in five of six. The matchup is not the best with Washington allowing the 11^th fewest fantasy ppg to centers but without a doubt I feel Vucevic has the highest ceiling on the slate at the center position.

Marcin Gortat is the only other center besides the two above I am considering using tonight. In four of his last five games he has scored more than 30 fantasy points going over the 50 mark once versus the Kings on 12/21. He also has four double-doubles in his last five games and if I do not use one of the other guys and depending on what I have left to spend Gortat could be my guy.

Tonight’s lineup construction should be easier with so many mid-tier players from which to choose. Good luck.