NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: February 9, 2016

My mouth has gotten me into trouble on more than one occasion. Believe me when I tell you it is a problem over the years I have worked hard on trying to fix. Every once in a while I see something that drives me nuts and I just cannot stop that little part of my brain, that little devil on my shoulder per se, that instructs me to simply “fire away.” When the smoke clears I am usually left defending myself instead of merely backing down because I am a stubborn man who stands behind my principles and ideals regardless of how it affects my status in this industry. I even had one fellow (a friend of mine who is a very popular expert) tell me I sound like a guy who should start covering poetry. It was a meant as a shot across the bow but the truth is, anytime you get two experts who disagree you will see more shots fired than the War of 1812. So what does this have to with DFS? A lot more than you can imagine, but this is a topic best saved for another day, I guess. As for me and this other expert, we are still cool. When the day comes that I have to be anyone other than myself I will pursue that career in poetry or take up my other big love, food. Or maybe I will read poetry while my lovely wife feeds me grapes and I reminisce about the days of small appearances on Sirius XM, fried chicken and waffles and DFS conventions.

Tonight we have a five game slate which is just enough to have a little fun. So with Netflix playing in the background, a three-year old screaming, and a cat that is being a creep, I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

The Rockets-Warriors game tonight has a huge 230 expected point total with Golden State being 14.5-point favorites. Blowout risk aside Stephen Curry is the point guard on the slate with the highest ceiling. The bad part is that he has the price to match it. He has scored over 110 fantasy points on FanDuel in the last two games and tonight, he gets a neutral matchup with Houston allowing the 17^th most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. What we have here is the classic “superstars supersede matchups” theory and to be honest, I quite agree. Over the last 10 games, the Rockets are surrendering 22.7 ppg to point guards and I see no reason Curry does not score 30 points tonight, something he has done five times in the last 10 games. I prefer him as a GPP play with the huge point spread.

The point guard I am spending up on in my cash game lineup tonight is none other than John Wall. The Wizards-Knicks game tonight is probably my favorite game on the slate and the one I think will be the most entertaining to watch. The game has a nice 207 expected point total with the Knicks being two-point favorites. Wall is averaging over 45 fantasy ppg in his last five and with the Knicks allowing 21.3 ppg on the season and 24 ppg over the last 10 games to point guards Wall is a guy who can easily get you 50 fantasy points tonight. The last time he faced the Knicks he scored 25 points in 36 minutes of play and with this game expected to be close you have a longshot at some OT. This will be one Wall the Knicks cannot climb tonight.

If you decided to pair both Wall and Curry together tonight it would be hard to argue that approach. I prefer to go the spending up on one player and saving on another player approach tonight myself with some high dollar players I want in my lineup later. With this being said the player I currently have paired with Wall tonight is Patrick Beverley.

I will admit, it was not long ago I would see his name and just pass by him regardless of what my model was telling me. Lately, he is getting harder and harder to ignore. Beverley and the Rockets played the Warriors well on New Year’s Eve losing by only four points. In this game Beverley played 30 minutes scoring 15 points with four-rebounds and four-assists. In six of his last eight games Beverley has scored well over 20 fantasy ppg and his price remains low across the industry. On a night when I need to save somewhere to stay alive I will roll the dice on a player like Beverley who can get me 25 fantasy points for peanuts and has a real chance at hitting 6X value depending on what site you play on. I say you get 5X at least and say he is a fine cash game play but loses ground in GPP’s with his low upside.

If you really want to save and get a player who should be low owned than take a look at Raul Neto. Neto is playing heavy minutes with Trey Burke being ill. Burke is already out tonight so Neto should get plenty of minutes again tonight facing a Dallas team allowing 21.1 ppg on the season to point guards. This is slated to be a close game with the Mavericks being two-point favorites and it also has a low 183 expected point total which will scare 90-percent of the DFS world away. His price is the minimum to near minimum across the industry and if you can get 21 fantasy points out of him tonight well then my friends on FanDuel you just hit that 5X value while saving a fortune. I would only use him in a stars & scrubs lineup unless you really need to punt to save a few bucks.

Shooting Guard

James Harden (GTD – Hand) is the obvious big dog at the two tonight on the slate. He has been on fire lately scoring over 50 fantasy ppg in seven of his last 10 games going over the 60 and 70 mark twice each. He is averaging 23 points, six-rebounds, and five-assists this season versus the Warriors which is quite a feat considering they are only allowing the fifth fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. With a bad matchup and high price tag I am reserving Harden for my GPP lineup tonight but make no mistake about it if he goes off you will be left behind in cash games by those with enough gusto to take him.  

We all have those players we use all the time. That is why you should follow an expert or two and try to stick with them because as them players get hot so does the expert who regularly uses them. You would hate to follow my advice or any other experts through a losing streak only to jump ship to another expert as the one you just followed gets hot and the new one goes on a losing streak. I am pointing it out because I heard Tommy G say this very same thing on the radio today and it is absolute truth. DFS is streaky. If you do not stay the course anywhere you could end up getting the bad with the bad with the bad and keep missing out on the good. Just think about it.

Look around, read some articles, do your research, and find a DFS player or two whose opinions and research you trust and go with it. That is how I learned.

Klay Thompson is my guy. I love using him anytime he gets a favorable matchup. His price is low across the industry for a player with a 40 fantasy point upside. He has hit the 30 fantasy point mark now in five of his last 10 games eclipsing 50 once versus the Mavericks on Jan. 27^th. The Rockets are allowing 21.8 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg on the season to shooting guards making Thompson the first shooting guard in my early cash game lineup on FanDuel.

Getting back to the Wizards-Knicks game Arron Afflalo is averaging over 17 points ppg versus the Wizards this season and is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg in his last four.  The price is right industry wise and he gets a great matchup with the Wizards allowing 21.1 ppg and the fifth most fantasy ppg on the season to shooting guards. I plan on having some exposure to him in my GPP lineup tonight but find him a safe cash game play tonight as well.

If you were to take a knife and cut my arm you would see two colors of blood. Green and Blue. Green for my Celtics and Blue for my Dodgers. Truth. Avery Bradley gets a great matchup tonight facing a Bucks team who is allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in four of his last 10 games versus the Bulls, Nuggets, Magic, and Kings and I see no reason he cannot again tonight. His price is fair and he is the guy I am pairing with Thompson at this time on FanDuel.

Small Forward

The small forward position tonight is one spot I plan on spending a few dollars. With Derek Fisher taking orders at Burger King now and Kurt Rambis (who has some of the ugliest basketball card photos ever) in charge it may take a few games for the new Knicks to run smooth. In the meantime I see them rallying around their shooters. Well, who better than Carmelo Anthony to rely upon? He has been a staple in the Knicks offense forever now and I cannot imagine the offense not running through him tonight. The Wizards are allowing 22 ppg (highest in NBA) and the fourth most fantasy ppg to three on the season and tonight Melo will not be that great player I never use as I already have him in my cash game lineup.

Evan Turner is putting up great numbers while Jae Crowder’s are going down, like his price. Not quite sure what the hell is happening but Turner is healthy and reminding me why I loved him so much last season. He is playing well over 30 minutes per night off the bench and has scored over 30 fantasy points now in four of his last 10 games. Tonight he faces a Bucks team allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and he is already in my lineup. One is company two is a Crowder, who I am fading.

Giannis Antetokounmpo whose name is always work to type is in a great spot to win a DFS player a penny or two tonight. The Celtics I am sad to say are allowing 20.5 ppg and the 20^th most fantasy ppg to the three on the season and this game also has a nice 208 expected point total with the Celtics being 4.5 point favorites so it should stay close. The “Greek God” has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in three of his last 10 games which is what you want out of him tonight. The last time he faced the Celtics he only played 24 minutes as the Bucks took a 16-point loss. I do not see that lightening striking twice but yet I still would only use him in GPP play tonight.

If I was to go cheap tonight the lowest I would go is Harrison Barnes. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three of his last five games and will see plenty of minutes tonight in this game that has an insane 230 expected point total. For his price this is a great way to gain some cheap exposure to a Rockets team allowing the third most fantasy ppg to the small forward position on the season and 23.5 ppg over the last 10. I will be using all four of these small forwards tonight between my two lineups on FanDuel.

Power Forward

So basically I have to tell you that I like the whole Golden State lineup tonight. Of the five I prefer as crazy as it sounds Stephen Curry the least. I do however love Draymond Green. The Rockets are terrible at defending the front court as they are allowing 23.5 ppg (highest in NBA) and the most fantasy ppg to the power forward position on the season while surrendering 24.7 ppg (also highest in NBA) over the last 10 games. Green has two triple-doubles in his last three games and has the ability to put up another even in limited minutes in a blowout. I could not get him into my cash game lineup quick enough especially with the four a little weak for safety tonight.

Amir Johnson is a player who I love to take but bite my fingernails off when I do. Brad Stevens drives me nuts with his rotations. You never know where the minutes are going to fall. Johnson will play nearly 30 minutes per night for four or five days and just when you get comfortable and start using him in DFS again he will only play 18 minutes. For this reason regardless of the fact the Bucks are allowing 22.4 ppg and the 24^th most fantasy ppg on the season to the four until I see some consistency in minutes near the 30 range I will only use Johnson in GPP lineups. He is already in mine.

How happy do you think the Jazz are that Derrick Favors is back? I am going to take a guess that they are happier than a beatnik at a jazz festival. One thing is for certain Favors has taken right off since returning. He has scored over 100 fantasy points combined in his last three with one game being a stinker. The Mavericks are allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg on the season to power forwards and Favors is that player who can get you 40 fantasy points tonight at the 30 fantasy point price. If I was to move off of Draymond Green I would use Favors tonight in cash games regardless of the low 183 expected point total.

Now here is my sneaky play tonight that I will admit is foolish to use in cash games even though I am. With Tim Duncan already ruled out LaMarcus Aldridge is projected to play center with David West playing at the four. This is going to be the most ignored game of the night and on a small slate I believe even in cash games you need some risk to try and get ahead. Think about it. How many times on a small four or five game slate have you been out of the money by a few points heading into the last game with four players left who are all over 40-percent owned? As for myself, many. The result is you watch yourself stay just out of the money all night regardless of how good the remaining players in your lineup do. How do you get ahead when most of the field has the same players right? This is common on nights like tonight in 100 man 50/50’s which is why I am taking a chance on David West. The matchup sucks with Miami allowing the second fewest fantasy ppg to the power forward position on the season but they are allowing a healthy 21.6 ppg over the last 10. I am not hoping to strike rich here with West just to get around 25 fantasy points for the near minimum across the industry and be the guy that has him at two-percent ownership. Super risky but someone has to score and no player has a really good matchup in this game.

Center

I will only be using two centers tonight.

The top play at the center position tonight in my opinion is Greg Monroe. The Celtics whether I like it or not defend the center position with all the finesse of an Ogre trying to build wooden ships in glass bottles. The Celts are allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to the center position and Monroe has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in seven of his last 10 games going over the 40 mark twice versus Houston and Sacramento who also have defensive woes versus the position. His price is the highest on the slate but I feel he is the safest way to get to the 40 mark tonight at center.

Festus Ezeli (Knee surgery) is out. And when I say out I mean bags packed, on a plane, heading home, watching basketball on TV out. With Ezeli taking pain meds and more than likely napping a lot Andrew Bogut should see a huge boost in minutes. In two out of four of the last games he played more than 20 minutes Bogut has scored more than 30 fantasy points. Once versus the Bulls on Jan. 20^th where he played 20 minutes scoring 30.4 fantasy points on FanDuel and the other was on Jan. 30^th versus the Sixers where he scored 37.2 fantasy points on FanDuel in 26 minutes. His price is near minimum across the industry and if he plays even 25 minutes tonight versus a Rockets team allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to centers on the season and 22.3 ppg over the last 10 he should put up huge numbers. I am taking the risk and using him in my cash game lineup but as an expert I can only recommend him for GPP.

Good Luck tonight!