NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: February 20, 2016

Well, I tried to get cute last night. At the last minute I saw a post stating that Josh Smith was projected to start for Houston as well as Frank Kaminsky for the Hornets. All of a sudden the little DFS devil on my shoulder told me to throw my cash games to the wayside and play a few GPP lineups with this newfound “value”.

People often say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. That is the most untrue statement of all time. The truth is, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and knowing exactly what will happen.

So in the end I listened to the little devil on my shoulder and got the usual result with my lineups…a big fat loss. Sometimes I should just practice what I preach.

We have a four game slate tonight and I can tell you now I am not playing any cash games tonight. I will run two GPP lineups. One for the single entry tournaments and one for the multi entry tournaments.

So with a cat that just bit me on the hand like a creep and a beautiful day in Massachusetts I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

Chris Paul scores the highest at the point guard position today in my model and for good reason. The Warriors-Clippers game has the highest expected point total of the night at 223 and one of the lowest lines I have seen for Golden State with them being only five-point favorites. Paul has scored 66.5 and 54 fantasy points on FanDuel in his last two games and faces a Warriors team allowing 23.1 ppg and the 19^th most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. In a game with such a high expected point total facing a team that surrenders its fair share of points to the point guard position Paul is a player who can easily put up over 50 fantasy points but the price is steep. I will have full exposure to him tonight.

I will not sugar coat the situation. I plan on pairing Stephen Curry with Chris Paul in my lineups as much as possible. With Golden State getting a little embarrassed last night I fully expect Curry to come out tonight with a vengeance. The Clippers defensively have really stepped up their game allowing the seventh fewest fantasy points overall and Curry has a tough matchup as well with them allowing the fourth fewest fantasy ppg to the point guard position. Curry is averaging over 50 fantasy ppg over the last five and tough matchup or not he gets my call tonight for sure.

Just a heads up I really feel on this small slate you need to have exposure to at least one of them players above to stay in the mix of things tonight.

With Dwayne Wade headed for an MRI today and Chris Bosh out Goran Dragic becomes a decent play tonight for the price. I am not a big fan of Dragic as most nights he tends to get swept under the rug with all the better shooters on the team but with the two big guys out Miami becomes a bevy of fantasy value tonight. Last night Dragic put up over 40 fantasy points versus the Hawks and I see no reason he cannot put up 30 fantasy points tonight, something he has done twice now in the last four games.

All of a sudden Jeff Teague is playing really good basketball. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg now in three straight games. The point guard position tonight offers little in the way of great matchups on paper so the fact that Milwaukee is allowing the eighth fewest fantasy ppg to the point guard position on the season does not matter much to me. With little to choose from tonight Teague is the fourth option in my book.

You could also punt to Dennis Schroder if you were inclined as it could pay off if this becomes a blowout with Atlanta being favored by 8.5-points tonight. Schroder has also scored more than 25 fantasy points in back-to-back games and for the low price he could allow you to make significant upgrades elsewhere. I would not use him in cash games but he has potential for a big game.

Shooting Guard

I find the shooting guard position today to be full of options. This is a great spot to spend up on one player and go cheap on another.

The top player at the two tonight in my opinion is Andrew Wiggins. He has put up over 30 fantasy points in back-to-back games and has the highest usage rate of all the starting shooting guards on the slate (yes I look at that). The matchup could be better with the Knicks allowing the 11^th fewest fantasy ppg to the two on the season but they are allowing 20.5 ppg which is among the highest on the slate. His price is fair at $6,600 and with the Knicks being only two-point favorites tonight it should stay close.

When I think of the two players that will be the avengers for the Warriors tonight I think Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Thompson has huge upside in the sense he can put up over 40 fantasy points when he gets hot but it seems the nights this happens Curry has the off night. I have learned for the most part not to pair them when possible. There is only so much shooting offense to go around. Thompson has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in four of this last 10 games going over the 50 mark on Jan. 27^th versus the Mavericks. He has the potential but faces a Clippers team allowing the ninth fewest fantasy ppg to the shooting guard position on the season. I would not use him and Curry. One or the other.

Kyle Korver? Really? WTF? I keep waiting for a bad night fantasy wise out of him but he keeps showing me different. Korver has scored over 20 fantasy ppg now in four straight. Here is the thing, he is not just barely scratching the 20 mark. In fact he has scored 24.2, 28.6, 25.3, and 24.2 fantasy points on FanDuel in the last four. His price is only $4,100 on FanDuel and on a night with the best shooting guards in bad matchups it might serve you well to take a hot player in a good one like this. The Bucks are allowing 20.9 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. We always have a chance he goes back to the Korver of old but at this point I am starting to feel safe.

With Dwayne Wade not confirmed out but more than likely so, Gerald Green should start at the two tonight. Last night I stayed away from him out of fear he still would not see enough minutes but tonight I am willing to take a stab. The Wizards defend the two guard terribly allowing the fifth most fantasy ppg on the season and Green is the minimum price across the industry. He is still a risk but well worth it with no Wade. I plan on having at least one lineup with him and Korver paired to save a fortune.

Small Forward

Well the shooting guard position tonight was loaded in my opinion the small forward position is a bit hungry but not starving. Once again I like the more expensive player mixed with a cheap player combo here and I am staying away from the Clippers players tonight at the three until I can see what the hell is happening with Jeff Green. I would rather take the chance on missing the play of the night rather than selecting a player who gets a whopping 11 minutes.

My favorite play tonight at the three is Giannis Antetokounmpo or the “Greek God” to the laymen. The Greek God has scored more than 30 fantasy points in four out of his last five games hitting the 40 mark once. The Hawks are in the middle-of-the-road defensively allowing the 15^th most fantasy ppg to the three on the season and 19.7 ppg which is also average. We all know that Antetokounmpo is not your average player and for the price I prefer him over the next guy.

Carmelo Anthony is the guy the Knicks utilize the most on the court. Him and then the elven lord. Someone emailed me and asked why I do not put usage rates in my article. I explained that it is factored into my model but not something I usually reference in my articles. I like to make this read fun and informative while trying not to sound like a math professor or rocket scientist, mainly because I am neither. For today we will touch on usage rates.

Carmelo Anthony has a usage rate of 25.4. This is far above any other small forward on the slate. The only thing that scares me is that Melo is only a stone throw away from doing Wrangler commercials with Brett Favre. He is one of the few players in the NBA that scares me off a bit when playing a back-to-back game. If this does not bother you and for the most part it should not he has scored 51.6 and 45.4 fantasy points on FanDuel in the last two. The matchup once again in what is becoming a common theme today is less than favorable with the Timberwolves allowing the 13^th fewest fantasy ppg to the three on the season. His price is a bit high for me today making him a GPP play only.

How many times have you seen the Coach K ESPN commercial where he texts with Justise Winslow? I have to tell you that I have no idea what them little symbols mean either. I prefer plain old fashioned English. Not happy faces and smiling watermelons.

Like earlier mentioned I find the Miami side of things tonight to be a bevy of value. Justise Winslow is the guy I currently have plugged into my lineup. The matchup is one of the better of the day with the Wizards allowing 21.9 ppg (highest in the NBA) and the third most fantasy ppg to the three on the season. His price on FanDuel is supercheap at $4,000 for a player who could easily get you 25 fantasy points tonight. It all comes down to minutes. Also do not overexpose to Miami either. I would use two players at most.

Kent Bazemore is one of them players you try to dink and dunk and gain some exposure to when you think the time is right. All indicators point to tonight possibly being that night. In the last two games he has put up stinkers failing to score 20 fantasy points and his price is high at $5,200 for his inconsistent production. I would prefer him around $4,700 or so on FanDuel in comparison with their pricing system. Bazemore does have that thirty fantasy point upside though and tonight faces a Bucks team allowing 20.4 ppg and the 24^th most fantasy ppg to the three. I say after two bad games he bounces back tonight and puts up at least 25 fantasy points.

Power Forward

The rumor is the production of fudge stripe cookies will continue as the Keebler’s and the elven lord Kristaps Porzingis have come to a deal. Snap, Crackle, and Pop in exchange for “protection” will each receive at least one case of fudge stripes per month with half of them going to lord Porzingis. With the seven foot tall Latvian lord at peace we can resume our trip through the NBA. Hopefully with some milk to dunk these delicious fudge stripes in. Thank you Snap now get back to making marshmallow treats.

Porzingis continues to tear it up as he has now scored over 30 fantasy points in four straight games. As with most of the best plays today the matchup sucks with the Timberwolves allowing the ninth fewest fantasy ppg to the four but I see only five viable options on FanDuel today at the power forward position and only three I would use making Porzingis my favorite.

If you can afford him which at the moment I cannot seem to fit him Paul Millsap is the top play at the power forward position. My only problem with Millsap is you may only get 35 fantasy points out of him which is a number you can achieve for cheaper I believe. He does however have huge upside and tonight is facing a Bucks team allowing 22.4 ppg (tied for second highest in the NBA) and the 24^th most fantasy ppg on the season to power forwards. I prefer Porzingis but Millsap is certainly no joke.

Jabari Parker is a name I find myself using more and more. He has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in two straight and is playing heavy minutes. With little to choose from he is among the cream of the crop today at the four and the player I currently have paired with Porzingis. He could have a better matchup with Atlanta allowing the 17^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards but hey, it is better than the seventh most.

The only other player on FanDuel I am even considering today at the four is actually playing center. Gorgui Dieng who I had a chance to acquire off the waivers in a few leagues and passed is becoming a consistent 30 fantasy point machine. He has scored over 30 now in seven out his last 10 games going over the 40 mark and 50 mark once. His price is fair I feel at $6,500 and I will be using him in one of my two lineups tonight for sure.

I just cannot see spending up for Draymond Green tonight. Not a horrible play but I would rather spend my money elsewhere.

Center

The center position is kind of weird tonight. I mean I had four centers all score the same in my model and the rest are right in the same range. So my method is telling me to just throw a dart at a name.

I love to save at center. It is just my thing I guess. Last night Robin Lopez started off hot and then just fizzled. Tonight on the back-to-back game I believe the Knicks will lean on him a little more and for the low price of $5,500 on FanDuel you can really put the savings to some good use. Lopez has the ability for a monster game it is just a lot like catching lightening in a bottle. Well my bottle is out and it is pouring rain outside.

If you are going to spend up than the player I would do so with tonight at the center position is DeAndre Jordan. The Golden State big man situation is lackluster to say the least and with no Blake Griffin he has really been able to put up some numbers. In five of his last seven games Jordan has scored over 40 fantasy points and tonight faces a Warriors team allowing 21.6 ppg and the 17^th most fantasy ppg to centers on the season. I will have him in at least one of my two lineups.

For a little reference to the model I created. The highest a player can score is 32. Robin Lopez was an 18 and DeAndre Jordan was a 19. Hassan Whiteside, Al Horford, and Karl-Anthony Towns also all scored 18. The lowest is Martin Gortat at 15 and the highest was Andrew Bogut at 22. Just saying.

Good luck tonight.

Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73

GO DODGERS!