NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: February 19, 2016

“The Ewoks are playing flutes, six of them”.

That is how I was aroused from my slumber last night. For whatever reason my wife Jennifer was dreaming about Ewoks and decided to blurt that statement out quite loudly last night. Enough to wake me up, which of course, led me to checking my phone to find out I was Kawhied in the Leonard. This was 2 am and I have been awake since. Grumpy.

So I decided to go on Facebook and Twitter and all I can see is people crushing DFS NHL left and right. I played one optimal lineup by Kenneth Le this week over the break and turned my $5 into $15 and decided to retire a winner. Perhaps it was a bit soon as I was a day late and a dollar short as usual. Or a day early in my case. Kudos to the Fantasy Alarm NHL staff this week. From what I am seeing they have been killing it.

We have a huge 14 game slate tonight with some value lurking in the wings and a boat load of indicators telling me tonight is going to be the Wild West in DFS. I would exercise bankroll management to the fullest tonight as I well expect some huge scores across the industry being put up.

So with wOBA and BVP swirling around my head fighting with the NBA I bring you today’s position coach article. Come on April.

Point Guard

Right away when I looked at the slate Emmanuel Mudiay was just leaping off the page at me. Then to my surprise when running my model for tonight he actually scored the highest of all the point guards. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in three of his last four games and tonight faces a Kings team allowing 22.7 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to point guard position on the season. This game has a huge 218 expected point total with the Kings only being four-point favorites. All this spells V-A-L-U-E at the low price of $5,700 on FanDuel tonight and I currently have him locked and loaded into my lineup.

I am on the ropes right now in cash games as to whether I am spending up at the point guard position tonight or not. If I do, I can tell you now the player I will use tonight is Stephen Curry. In his last four games he has scored 61.4, 51.2, 55.5, and 52.3 fantasy points on FanDuel. The Warriors-Trailblazers game has the highest expected point total of the evening at 220 and the Warriors are only nine-point favorites. I quite often as a rule of thumb consider Curry anytime the line is less than 10. The Trailblazers are allowing 21.7 ppg to the point guard position and run in the middle-of-the-road in fantasy points allowed at the 16^th most on the season. His price is high but so is the reward for a player who could get you over 60 fantasy points when he gets hot.

Kyle Lowry although being a great play most nights has a particularly juicy match up tonight facing a beat up Bulls team allowing 21.2 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. This game has a nice 212 expected point total with Toronto being 5.5-point favorites. Lowry in his last 10 games has scored over 40 fantasy ppg four times hitting the 50 mark twice versus the Knicks on Jan. 28^th and Trailblazers on Feb. 4^th.  His price is more than fair across the industry for the upside.

The Gollum has been dealing with turf toe. As a result he has been hiding in his cave going over and over in his crazy mind the thought of three double-doubles in the last four games without getting a triple-double. Will he ever get his precious? Time will tell. For now he will gather his usually foul attitude and lace up for battle.

The Gollum, or Rajon Rondo has been on fire lately scoring over 50 fantasy points on FanDuel in two of his last three games while scoring over 40 in four straight. The Nuggets are allowing the fifth most fantasy ppg to the point guard position on the season and I see no reason Rondo does not feast tonight in this matchup. At this time he is a GTD but the word is he is playing. I find his price a bit inflated again which makes him a better GPP play than cash game play.

Mike Conley is about as consistent as you can get. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in three of his last four games and more often than not on most nights gets right around that 30 mark. The Minnesota-Memphis game has a decent expected point total tonight at 203 with the Grizzlies being five-point favorites and if you watch this game on TV you might just catch Mark Kaplan doing dunks in an Elvis suit. He is a great cash game play tonight but with the limited upside for the price I would avoid in GPP.

I see no reason to go bargain basement tonight at the point guard position. Norris Cole has a nice price tag on FanDuel at $5,200 for a player who could get you 30 fantasy points and I am not looking at anything at this time lower than him. In seven of his last 10 games he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg going over the 30 mark four times. The Sixers are allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to the point guard position on the season and I currently have him in my cash game lineup with Mudiay.

Shooting Guard

I am going to make this easy, grab Fozzy the Beard, or James Harden and put him into your lineups. He is the player tonight who I am building my cash game lineup around and for good reason. In seven out of his last 10 games Harden has scored over 50 fantasy ppg going over 60 and 70 once each in this run. The depleted Suns are allowing the second most fantasy ppg on the season to shooting guards and if you can see any reason why not to use him tonight I would like to know it.

I consider all the players below a decent option to pair with Harden tonight in cash games.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope gets to face a Wizards team in a state of flux tonight that is a little banged up as well. This game has a high 211.5 expected point total with Washington being one-point favorites. I expect this to be a high scoring affair tonight on both sides and KCP who always reminds me of fried chicken is a great way to gain some exposure to a Wizards team allowing the fifth most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. KCP prior to his groin injury was easily scoring over 20 fantasy ppg on most nights and he says he is 100-percent ready to go after the rest.

If you have not noticed Gary Harris is becoming a nice punt play at the two in the right matchup. I feel you really need to get some exposure tonight to the Nuggets-Kings game and Harris is a great way to get some for cheap. He is that typical matchup dependent player who you roll out in a good spot like tonight. The Kings are allowing 23.3 ppg (highest in NBA) and the most fantasy ppg on the season to the shooting guard position and Harris is averaging nearly 25 fantasy ppg over his last two. The price and matchup is right that is for sure.

The Hornets-Bucks game tonight does not entice me all that much but you cannot ignore Jeremy Lin. With the Hornets all banged up he has the opportunity for plenty of minutes tonight versus a Bucks team allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. Lin has that 30 fantasy point upside for the 20 fantasy point upside price. It all comes down to minutes.

Devin Booker rounds out my list of shooting guards to pair with Harden tonight. With the sheer volume of minutes available Booker has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in eight of his last 10 games going over the 30 mark three times versus the Mavericks, Raptors, and Warriors which is a feat I find rather impressive. The Rockets are allowing 21.5 ppg and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and I am loving me some Booker tonight for the price on FanDuel. On DraftKings I find him a little inflated and would only use in GPP lineups.

Small Forward

I find the three tonight a bit of a mess. There are several players I like but no one that I am absolutely crazy about. For this reason I am going to go cheap tonight. Although on most nights I love to use Kevin Durant it is a move I lean towards using when I am also running Russell Westbrook. Which I am not tonight. So even though he may have a great game I am fading Durant in cash games tonight.

The most expensive I would go tonight at the three is Gordon Hayward. The Celtics-Jazz game tonight has the lowest expected point total on the slate at 196 so my exposure to this game would be only one player at best for the late bullet in my lineup. Hayward has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in four straight games and tonight faces my beloved Celtics who are allowing the 19^th most fantasy ppg on the season to the three. I am not using him in my cash game lineup tonight but I plan on having him in my GPP.

I find it crazy today with the trades that took place to figure all this out so early. I have no idea how much Detroit is going to use Tobias Harris tonight but Marcus Morris scored the highest in my model tonight at three and I cannot imagine on any planet he does not start over Anthony Tolliver or Stanley Johnson. Morris has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in nine straight including putting up over 30 versus the Raptors on Feb. 8^th. The Wizards are allowing 22 ppg (highest in NBA) and the third most fantasy ppg to the small forward position and for the low price of $5,600 on FanDuel Morris seems hard to pass up.

Corey Brewer is just too enticing to pass on tonight for me. I am going against all the principles and using him in my cash game lineup even though by definition he is a GPP play. I believe on these huge slates even in your cash games you need to take a shot or two to stay ahead of the pack in 50/50’s. The last time Brewer faced the Suns he scored over 30 fantasy points in 25 minutes on Feb. 4^th. His price is only $3,900 on FanDuel and the Suns are allowing 21.5 ppg (second highest in NBA) and the most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season. I am all in on Brewer to have a bounce-back game tonight.

On the flipside to maximize the value P.J. Tucker is the player I am going to pair with Brewer in what is a stab at getting 60 fantasy points tonight out of the three. Houston is allowing 21.1 (third highest in NBA) and the second most fantasy ppg to the small forward position on the season. Tucker in the last 10 games has been able to muster over 20 fantasy ppg seven times hitting the 30 mark three times with one of them being against the same Houston team on Feb. 4^th. His price is low and I believe he is a player who could easily put up over 30 fantasy points tonight and this savings at the three goes a long way believe me.

As much as I refuse to believe it Maurice Harkless is an incredible value tonight versus a Golden State team that is allowing 21.1 ppg to the power forward position on the season. His price is a super low $4,100 and he has scored a combined 84.2 fantasy points on FanDuel in his last three games. I would not use him in cash games but then again most days I would say the same for Corey Brewer and P.J. Tucker. He is also a cheap way to get some exposure to that 220 expected point total tonight.

Power Forward

All has been quiet in the Elvin Forest. Snap, Crackle, and Pop carried out the strikes on their Keebler counterparts to perfection leaving the treehouse they used to bake in torn to shreds. Their seven foot tall lord sent his three elven henchmen on a mission that they carried out to their masters every wish. The Keebler’s have surrendered and all is at peace now in the forests of Latvia leaving Kristaps Porzingis able to concentrate on the task at hand. Dismantling the Brooklyn Nets.

Porzingis has been on a mission as of late scoring over 30 fantasy points in three straight going over the 40 mark versus the Denver Nuggets on Feb 7^th. The Nets are allowing 21 ppg and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to the power forward position on the season. This game has a close line with the Knicks being three-point favorites and a low by slate standards 201 expected point total. I have the Latvian hero in my cash game lineup and it would take a serious unexpected attack or few bags of fudge stripes to pull me off of him tonight.

Jabari Parker had three bad games in a row before his 31 fantasy point performance versus the Wizards prior to the break. In the three previous games before this he failed to score 20 fantasy points in each leaving DFS owners feeling duped as he had scored over 20 fantasy ppg in five of the six prior. Keeping up? Tonight Parker gets to face a Hornets team allowing 20.7 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season. His price is low at $4,900 on FanDuel and I myself am willing to go back to the Jabari well tonight. Whether it is in my cash game or GPP lineup will be determined.

Kenneth Faried is in a nice spot tonight to put up over 30 fantasy points facing a Kings team allowing the second most fantasy ppg to the power forward position on the season. Faried has scored more than 40 fantasy points twice in the last 10 games versus the Celtics on Jan. 27^th and the Nets on Feb. 8^th and hovers around the 25 fantasy point range most nights. The matchup is right and he is a pretty safe play tonight across the board with some nice upside.

The Trailblazers are allowing the 20^th most fantasy ppg to the power forward position on the season and Draymond Green has a price that has fallen to $8,400 on FanDuel. He has the ability to put up a triple-double in under 30 minutes of play and if you can afford him tonight I would play him. Enough said here.

Last but not least at the four I am totally loving me some Aaron Gordon tonight regardless of the addition of Ersan Ilyasova. Gordon has scored over 30 fantasy points in three straight games even going over the 40 mark on Feb. 7^th versus the Hawks. The Mavericks are allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg on the season to power forwards and Gordon has huge upside for a low price.

We have a lot of value at this position but I prefer the value at the three over the four to save with.

Center

If you read my articles then you already know I always try to save at center unless I see a must play. Tonight is no different as I will be going cheap myself.

Andrew Bogut seems to never let me down when I take him. The problem is figuring out exactly when to do so. I have little exposure to Golden State tonight and for $4,800 on FanDuel, Bogut is nice way to get some. He is averaging 35 fantasy points in the last two games and tonight he gets a Portland team allowing 22 ppg and the 20^th most fantasy ppg to the center position. The one thing to worry about is he tends to put up multiple games where he fails to score 20 fantasy points. I do not see that tonight but be warned.

To boogie or not to boogie? If you can by all means then boogie. DeMarcus Cousins even though playing in the four for quite some time now is still in typical FanDuel fashion in the center slot. You would think with a week off they would fix this kind of stuff right? The Nuggets are allowing 22.5 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season and Boogie has the highest ceiling at the position. If I do not use Curry I will use Cousins.

Even though Robin Lopez has a price tag that is starting to rise something about the brother versus brother thing intrigues me. Can you imagine eating dinner with the Mannings? Watching Peyton eat and gloat about all his achievements while Eli banters about the two lucky rings he has. How do you think Seth Curry feels when everyone asks him if he can get them Stephens autograph? I am guessing not to good. The Nets are allowing 22.1 ppg (highest in the NBA) and the 26^th most fantasy ppg to the center position and Robin has shown some potential as of late with a few big games.

Good luck tonight and remember on these slates for the most part settling for 20 fantasy points out of a player will not do. Think 30 wherever possible.

Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73