NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: February 10, 2016

I have no fingernails left. Literally. DFS NBA over the last month has caused me to nervously bite them off. Late scratches, foul trouble, and poor performance by players has left me a nervous wreck. I am sleeping less than four hours per night and my mood has been unstable to say the least. Where am I going with all this? I am so ready for a break. I have seen charred campfires less burned out than me right now.

The poetry thing is not looking so bad.

The next six days I plan on working on my EBay store, getting my taxes done, putting some much needed attention into my bar, and if time permits maybe even get to spend a little time with my family. If you are a regular DFS player than these breaks from the action are a great time to show your wife and kids how much you love them. FanDuel and DraftKings will just have to wait to regain my attention. Valentine’s Day is Sunday and I usually use this day to show my wife I do love her more than the Dodgers. But it is close. For this is the time to butter up the wife before baseball starts. Then my friends, it is on.

So last night I went against my model and tried to get cute. My original cash game lineup that I was making while writing yesterday’s position coach article did well thanks to the help of players like Andrew Bogut. Say what you want, I have a knack for sniffing out the value at center most nights. It is the other positions that often kill me. The problem is at 7:45 pm I decided to switch to Miles Plumlee and stack the Houston-Golden State game. I went against my own rule of never having more than two players on the same team and it bit me right in the ass. To the tune of finishing 72-out-of-100 in my 50/50’s. The ironic part is I did not use Bogut who scored 43.7 fantasy points on FanDuel. Despite all the advice of staying the course, sticking to routine, and not deviating from your plan I did exactly the opposite and got exactly what I asked for, a loss.

We have a huge slate tonight which means another night of high scores. I had Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and James Harden in my lineup last night. Try that on DraftKings. I for one 100-percent agree with the recent talk of FanDuel being too soft on their pricing. It is something they need to fix and soon. I find it real discouraging to know I need over 320 points to cash a 50/50.

With the snow falling out my window, a fresh cup of coffee, and house full of sleeping kids (for now), I bring you todays position coach article. Scratch the kid thing, the first just emerged.

Point Guard

We do not have a ton of high priced options tonight at the point guard position and for the most part my cash game lineup tonight is going to be filled with mid-priced players. Without a doubt if you are going to go the route paying up then the only point guard worth paying up for is Stephen Curry. Back-to-back game or not Curry still has the highest ceiling at this position tonight. The Phoenix Suns are allowing 24.4 ppg (highest in NBA) and the second most fantasy ppg to the point guard position on the season. The Warriors are 16-point favorites tonight so we do have some blowout risk but the truth of the situation is what night don’t we?  Curry has scored over 50 fantasy ppg in three straight and is a player who can easily get there tonight but for the price I prefer him as more of a GPP play.

Ish Smith is the player currently sitting in my early cash game lineup. He has scored more than 40 fantasy points in two of his last four games versus the Warriors and Wizards who both are defensively superior to the Kings who are allowing 22.9 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. With this game having the third highest expected point total of the night at 216 and a close line with Sacramento being 4.5-point favorites Smith at $7,000 on FanDuel is more than fair.

Part of playing DFS is spotting opportunities. With Jimmy Butler out for a spell it makes sense that one of the players who will benefit is Derrick Rose. Rose has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in three straight going over the 50 mark on Feb. 5^th versus the Nuggets. Atlanta does defend the point guard position well allowing 20.3 ppg (low by PG standards) and the eighth fewest fantasy ppg on the season. Regardless of the matchup Rose will play a ton of minutes tonight and is coming off three days’ rest. He is the guy I currently have paired with Smith in my cash games.

All has been quiet in Middle-Earth. It has been a long time since the people in the land of the position coach have heard hide nor hair of the Gollum. It is rumored he went to anger management classes due to some violent outbursts from precious withdrawals. Something has peaked his interest tonight for he has left his lair and is heading to the “City of brotherly love” to steal back his precious triple-double. For he knows no rest in his quest to be the best. He is special, his mother told him so.

Tonight the “Gollum”, or Rajon Rondo is taking on a Sixers team who are allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to the point guard position on the season. I love Rondo more on sites with scoring bonuses over FanDuel but find him a great cash game play regardless. He has scored over 40 fantasy ppg now in three straight and has not achieved his precious triple-double in nine games. I say he is way overdue and I am going out on a limb and calling a triple-double tonight out of Rondo.

Getting back to that whole taking advantage of a situation scenario you have to take a look at Mike Conley tonight. On a nightly basis Conley is a safe cash game play as he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in 10 straight (10 games is as far back as I went) going over the 30 mark on four occasions. With Marc Gasol out for the season it stands to reason he should see a few more shot attempts until the new rotation settles. The Nets are allowing 21.6 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg on the season to the point guard position and Conley gets my call tonight to put up 35 fantasy points.

Archie Goodwin is great source of value tonight for the price of $5,400 on FanDuel for a player who is averaging over 40 minutes per game in the last four. The Warriors are allowing 22.4 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to the point guard position on the season and if he was able to put up over 35 fantasy points versus a tough Toronto backcourt on Feb. 2^nd playing 45 minutes he should score at will tonight facing Golden State. Either way the minutes should produce plenty of fantasy production by nights end and I may move off of either Rose or Smith and insert Goodwin if I find I really need the savings later on.

Shooting Guard

James Harden is the Stephen Curry of the shooting guard position tonight. Although he has the highest ceiling I would only use him in GPP play with better cheaper options available in my opinion. Regardless he put up over 50 fantasy points versus the Warriors last night and I see no reason he does not stay around that number tonight. He has scored over 50 fantasy ppg in seven of his last 10 games even hitting the magic numbers of 60 and 70 once. The matchup may be neutral with Portland allowing the 16^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season but Harden is far from a “neutral” player.

The last time Klay Thompson scored less than 20 fantasy points in a game was on Jan. 25^th versus the Spurs prior to last night. He followed that up by scoring over 50 fantasy points in his next game versus the Mavericks on Jan. 27^th. The bottom line is Thompson has huge upside tonight in my opinion for a really low price on FanDuel at $6,900. The Suns are allowing 21.5 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season and if you think for one minute Thompson will not take advantage of this you would be dead wrong. He is a great play tonight in any format.

Nicholas Batum in every sense of the word is in beast mode lately. He has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in three straight including one performance where he put up over 50 fantasy points versus the Wizards on Feb. 6^th. His price is fair at $7,000 on FanDuel and pretty much in this range across the industry. The Pacers are allowing 21.5 ppg to the shooting guard position and Batum is a player who is averaging nearly 20 ppg over his last four. I have him paired with Thompson right now in my cash game lineup keeping the two fully loaded.

Great matchups are always a good place to look when building a DFS lineup. The first thing I do each day is see if and who the Lakers are playing. Well tonight the Lakers got the unfortunate luck of playing the Cleveland Cavaliers. The same Cavs that are allowing the fourth fewest fantasy ppg overall in the NBA as opposed to the Lakers who allowing the most fantasy ppg in the NBA. “Polar opposites” is a term that comes to mind.

J.R. Smith is a player who regardless of how well he performs or does not perform has a price that remains just over the $5,000 mark on FanDuel. The thing is Smith has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in four of his last ten games including his last two. The Lakers are allowing 22.5 ppg and the second most fantasy ppg to the shooting guard position on the season and for the price Smith is a viable option in any format tonight. Blowout or not.

I have little plans on chasing much in the way of value tonight. The bottom line is if you fade Curry, James, Cousins, Davis, and Harden in cash games you can have your way with the slate. This to me is a bigger advantage on a huge slate like this than their upside. I honestly believe by fading them I can roster a cash game lineup capable of putting up over 325 points tonight on FanDuel. This is of course by my estimations. I came up with this number by rostering all players who can get me 35-to-45 fantasy points if all goes well. On the flipside my GPP lineup will contain at least three of them players above mixed with some minor value plays.

If I was going to go bargain hunting tonight and really needed to save some money I would take a stab with E’Twaun Moore. Here is a player that for the most part stinks but should see a ton of minutes with Butler out and as we know minutes equals fantasy production. I do not expect a huge game out of Moore tonight with Rose back in the lineup but for $4,200 on FanDuel he certainly is a player who can get you 25 fantasy points facing a Hawks team allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. If I use him it will be in GPP but I would not blame anyone who used him in cash games.

Small Forward

The small forward position tonight is a great place to save some money if you so choose. I love LeBron James and he has an awesome matchup facing a Lakers team allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season. In reality with the Cavs being 15.5-point favorites you may watch LeBron sit on the bench with a towel around his neck and scepter in his hand barking orders at the coaching staff and controlling all of his minions. He is a better GPP play in my opinion for this reason.

The player I am spending up a little for tonight at the three is Kawhi Leonard. The Spurs are that team for the most part I avoid. I always seem to find players in better matchups with better prices than what San Antonio usually offers. Tonight the Spurs are only 7.5-point favorites versus the Magic in a game with a 201 expected point total. Leonard has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in two straight. The matchup could be better with the Magic allowing the 19^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season but my gut is telling me he is the guy tonight and I am listening.

Stanley Johnson sucked for DFS owners the other night. And by suck I mean he scored 14.5 fantasy points on FanDuel. I was not surprised. If you check his game log you will see he has failed to score 20 fantasy points now five times in his last ten games even if three of them were more than likely a result of him playing less than 25 minutes. Still, it is a pattern. Although he is a good player in cash games you need to utilize him only in good matchups. FanDuel has him in the three but he is starting in the two where the Nuggets are allowing 21.4 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. This is that night he can get you over 30 fantasy points at a time when most will be scared (recency bias) with so many other options at this position tonight.

Keeping with the Johnsons you know as well as I do Paul Pierce is simply not an option at small forward. I honestly believe the Clippers role him out more out of respect than skill at this point. The player I like to roster is Wesley Johnson. He has played more than 25 minutes per game in six of his last ten games scoring over 20 fantasy ppg six times to match it. His price is low at $4,400 on FanDuel and comparable around the industry. I only take players like Johnson in good matchups and the Celtics are allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to the small forward position on the season.

I am tuckered out from writing about all the Johnsons. Speaking of being tuckered out, I am back on the P.J. Tucker bandwagon tonight. Regardless of a few horrible fantasy nights he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg seven times in the last 10 games hitting the 30 mark on three of them. The matchup could be better with the Warriors allowing the 18^th most fantasy ppg to the three but one thing is for sure he will play plenty of minutes in a game with a huge 220 expected point total. I like that.

Power Forward

Draymond Green killed my lineup last night. I spent a ton of salary to get the production I expect to get out of a player for the near minimum salary. I do not expect this trend to continue. Green has that high upside and ability to get you 50 fantasy points while putting up a triple-double in less than 30 minutes. I find his price a bit inflated right now and would only use him in a GPP lineup tonight. I prefer him over Anthony Davis if you are going to spend up.

The player I absolutely will be rostering tonight no matter what is Zach Randolph. With Marc Gasol out Randolph is projected to start at center tonight and I expect him and Conley to benefit the most from his absence. He is averaging over 40 fantasy ppg in the last two and tonight gets the benefit of beating up on a Nets team allowing 22.2 ppg (highest in NBA) and the fifth most fantasy ppg to centers on the season. His price is dirt cheap at $6,300 on FanDuel tonight and I would not be surprised to see him over 80-percent owned in cash games.

Myles Turner. I mean, do you find yourself almost taking him nightly without even thinking about it? I was but recently I have been passing on him because he is settling into that 25 fantasy ppg type of role. Stable, cash game viable, but lacking the recent upside to launch you to the top in a GPP. He has failed to score 30 fantasy points now in four straight games but tonight gets to face a Hornets team allowing the fifth most fantasy ppg to the power forward position on the season. If he is going to hit 30 I cannot imagine a better night than tonight.

While everyone has been spending up on Nerlens Noel the reality is Jerami Grant over the last three games has also been a bargain. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three straight now hitting the 30 mark Monday night versus Clippers. I look at it like this. If he was able to score over 30 fantasy points versus a Clippers team allowing the seventh fewest fantasy ppg to the four it stands to reason if he gets the minutes tonight he should do well facing a Kings team allowing the second most fantasy ppg to the four on the season. Keep in mind the NBA has taught me there is no rhyme or reason to it.

Julius Randle has a terrible matchup tonight with the Cavaliers allowing the fourth fewest fantasy ppg to the power forward position on the season. Randle though is getting better and better while playing heavy minutes. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg now six times in the last 10 games and hit the 40 mark on Feb. 6^th versus a tougher Spurs defense of course lacking Tim Duncan. His price is starting to rise but with little in the way of other viable options for the Lakers he will continue to get the minutes.

Center

Weird thing is I used to hate DeMarcus Cousins. His temper tantrums drove me nuts. Then my wife pointed out to me it was because I live with four little girls and witness temper tantrums all day long so by the end of the day the last thing I want to see is a grown man doing it on my TV while I am trying to relax. I believe the best GPP play tonight at center on FanDuel and Power Forward everywhere that does their job is Boogie. He has been failing to achieve value the last two games but tonight faces a Sixers team allowing the third most fantasy ppg to the power forward position on the season. His price is absolutely sickening which should drive some people elsewhere.

The center I am running tonight in my cash game lineup and have no plans on budging is Pau Gasol. He is the other player to see the upside with the absence of Butler in the backcourt. He has scored a combined 96.7 fantasy points on FanDuel in the last two games and he is a player who can easily get you 50 fantasy points tonight for $1500 cheaper than Cousins on FanDuel. The Hawks are allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to the center position on the season and on sites where you can play both him and Cousins together it could spell a lethal GPP option.

If I was going to spend down tonight the cheapest I would go at center is Gorgui Dieng. In the last seven games Dieng has scored over 30 fantasy ppg now five times going over 40 versus the Jazz on Jan. 29^th and over 50 versus the Bulls on Feb. 6^th. If he can beat up on a tough Utah team that is allowing the third fewest fantasy ppg to the center position he should do well facing a Toronto team allowing the 16^th most.

Here is a boom or bust hunch play that you can use at your own risk tonight. Kosta Koufos has scored over 20 fantasy ppg now in two straight games playing around 20 minutes and would come off the bench to face a Sixers team surrendering the most fantasy ppg to the center position. GPP option for the minimum salary tonight is what you have here but keep in mind he can easily bust leaving you broke. I can tell you now in a $1 or $2 GPP I would not hesitate to throw him in. That is about it.

Good Luck tonight and I will return next week. Enjoy the break!

Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73