NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 26, 2015

Saturday’s slate is a bit weird, and not just because there are two afternoon games. For whatever reason, there are more cheap players I like than mid-priced players at just about every position. While I have found success this week going with mostly mid-priced options, on Saturday I have found stars and scrubs works best for me. Of course, if you want to go with more mid-priced players, you should be able to find enough options to make that work.

Point Guard

It is back to stars and scrubs at the point guard position. There are a couple of cheap point guards who should see heavy minutes due to injury, and playing one of them should allow me to play one of the two studs who are going.

Ramon Sessions has played at least 30 minutes and scored at least 15 points in each of his last two games with Bradley Beal and Otto Porter out. John Wall is just 9-of-33 from the field in the last two games, but he has 33 assists in those games. The Nets have conveniently allowed the most assists in the NBA.

J.J. Barea scored a career-high 32 points Wednesday with Deron Williams out. Williams is out for Saturday, and Barea would be a nice cash game play again if Devin Harris is out as well. Barea averaged 26.5 points and 7.0 assists in the two games Deron Williams has missed this month.

Damian Lillard has averaged nearly exactly as many fantasy points as John Wall this season, but Lillard is significantly cheaper. Stephen Curry was able to get to the rim at will late in Golden State’s victory over the Cavs, and Lillard should be able to do the same.

Shooting Guard

Tyreke Evans struggled on Christmas Day, going just 2-for-9 from the field, but few things will help you break out of a shooting slump like facing the Rockets. The Rockets have allowed the sixth-most points to opposing teams this season. Eric Gordon has not been nearly as productive as Evans, but he has averaged 16.2 points over his last five games, and the matchup with Houston is just as favorable for him.

The Pelicans are allowing 107.1 points per game this season, and Harden will account for the lion’s share of Houston’s points. Like Evans, Harden had a rough game on Christmas, and I expect Harden to bounce back as well.  

Randy Foye and Gary Harris have seen a ton of playing time as Denver’s backcourt injuries pile up, and while both are inconsistent, they are awfully cheap considering how the number of minutes and shot attempts they should get.

If you want more of a mid-priced option at shooting guard, Khris Middleton has scored at least 15 points in five consecutive games and at least 21 points in each of his last two. The Raptors are allowing the fifth-highest three-point percentage in the NBA, which plays right into Middleton’s greatest strength.

Small Forward

Small forwards are the most difficult position to fill in Saturday’s slate, and with so many cheap options at other positions, the best bet may be to simply pay for some of the top options.

Paul George has been fantastic this season when he isn’t guarded by Kawhi Leonard, and unlike Kawhi and LeBron James, George is coming off two days off.

If you can’t afford George, Gordon Hayward is a fine alternative. He too has been off since Wednesday, and he has the added advantage of hosting the Clippers on the second night of a back-to-back.

If you really want to go cheap, Hollis Thompson has scored 16 points in each of his last two games, and the Suns have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season. Thompson averaged 30 minutes in those two games, and he will be a nice fantasy value while he continues to see increased minutes.

Power Forward

In the span of a couple of weeks, Jon Leuer has gone from a safe, consistent cash game play to a volatile GPP play. Leuer has double-doubles in three of his last six games, but failed to reach double digits in points or rebounds in any of his other three games. Leuer is a decent bet to record another double-double Saturday, but if he doesn’t get there, he will likely be a modest waste of money.

Bobby Portis should remain a solid cash game play for as long as Joakim Noah is out. Portis is averaging 11 points and six rebounds in 19 minutes over his last three games, and if he can match those numbers Saturday he will be well worth his modest price.

Like Bobby Portis, Darrell Arthur should play 20 or more minutes with Danilo Gallinari out, and like Bobby Portis, Arthur has an excellent chance to outperform his price. I slightly prefer Portis, though Arthur is cheaper on FanDuel.

Kevin Love has double-doubles in two consecutive games, and now he faces a Portland team that has struggled to defend opposing power forwards all season. I expect him to shoot better after going 5-of-16 from the field on Christmas.

Center

Brook Lopez has never been particularly good at defense, and Marcin Gortat has three double-doubles in his last four games. Gortat has averaged 38.3 minutes over his last three games.

The Celtics have allowed the sixth-most opponents' rebounds this season, and while getting Amir Johnson back should help, Boston does not have anybody to match up with Andre Drummond. At the very least, Drummond has an excellent shot at his sixth consecutive double-double.

The Bulls are played the second of a back-to-back, while the Mavericks are at home after two days of rest. Zaza Pachulia had five straight games with double-digit rebounds before going into a min-slump earlier this week, but he should rack up the boards against a Bulls team that has still allowed the most opponent’s rebounds in the NBA.