NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 19, 2015

Well I made my first withdrawal of the NBA season this week so I thought I would share with you my strategy for bankroll management since this is a small slate and I have a few extra minutes to write.

So here is how I do things. When the NBA season started I made a withdrawal from FanDuel and left $100 in my FanDuel account to play with and build on. This year my MLB winnings were off so I did not withdraw the amount I hoped, but to be honest it never is the amount I hope for.

I play 10 percent of my bankroll each night regardless of the amount. So literally when the season started on FanDuel I played the $1 single entry GPP, $2 Multi entry GPP, and $7 in 50/50’s each night for a total of $10. When the season first starts the amount of new players is very high and the experience level is very low. If you have half a clue the first week is a goldmine. And it was.

Next came the first slump of the season. I literally had one bad egg that killed my lineup every night for a week straight. It all started at a Patriots game when Eric Bledsoe sat after lineup lock. During this time I cashed just enough 50/50’s to break even, perhaps even lose a few bucks. As with the NBA, which always seems to be my most profitable, I had a few big nights. Nothing huge, a few hundred here, a few hundred there.

After a few good  hits and sticking to my 10 percent strategy by the time I made my withdrawal I was playing the $5 Nightly FantasyAlarm league, one $25 50/50, five $10 50/50’s, and $20 in assorted GPP play. My rule of thumb is whenever I get to the $1000 mark I withdraw half. This is where my 10 percent rule comes into play. As long as you stick to this rule, you always have 10 more chances. You also increase at the same rate. If I win and end up with $560 in my account I increase my playing to $56.

All of this may sound boring, especially if you have a ton of money to throw at this and a loss does not hurt you. I am not that guy. If it was not for DFS, Christmas would have been a no go for me this year and my family. They call us grinders for a reason. That reason is simple. DFS is a daily grind with ups and downs. The best have losing streaks and winning streaks. We take the good with the bad, the angry with the happy, and sometimes just have to say, “Shit, it is just not my night”.

This article will focus on the games starting at 7 pm EST tonight. I will tell you that I ran the early game players though my model and Russell Westbrook, Dion Waiters, Serge Ibaka, and Enes Kanter are all decent plays on this slate with limited contests.

If you ever have any questions hit me up on Twitter @geraldcolvin73. Just ask some of our other subscribers, I will help you. Let’s cash some lineups.

Point Guard

Chris Paul has been red hot as of late. In the last four games he has scored more than 40 fantasy ppg three times while posting three double-doubles. Tonight’s Clippers-Rockets game has the highest expected point total on the slate with a close (-1) Houston line. The Rockets are allowing 22.2 ppg and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to point guards. On a small slate he will be highly owned and should be.

George Hill finds himself in more than a favorable matchup tonight. The Grizzlies are allowing a whopping 24.4 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to point guards. Hill has failed to hit the 20 fantasy ppg mark now in three straight. For the most part I take serious discomfort in this stat. So here is how I see it. Lavoy Allen stinks, Ian Mahinmi has a horrible matchup, and Monta Ellis is as dependable as public transportation arriving on time. This leaves two starters to take the shots. Hill and Paul George who we will talk about later.

Patrick Beverley has a low price tag. How about $4,300 on FanDuel. Anytime you get a guy who plays the minutes Beverley does, playing in a game with the highest expected point total, facing a team that allows 22.2 ppg to point guards, you have to take notice. Beverley has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in three straight and I am pretty sure when I write my next article I will be able to say four.

Here is a possible jackpot. Jeremy Lin is playing in the two tonight. The Wizards are allowing 23.8 ppg and the second most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. In five of the last seven games Lin has scored more than 25 fantasy ppg including a 48 fantasy point performance versus a tough Raptors team Friday night. For the price in this matchup he seems like a must play and as long as he starts I am using him in my cash games tonight.

Shooting Guard

Fozzy the Beard, or James Harden, certainly should be a staple in every cash game tonight. Harden has put up more than 40 fantasy ppg in five straight with one game hitting the 60 mark. Tonight the matchup could be better with the Clippers allowing the 13^th fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards but that stat is not against Harden every night. He is a superstar and can perform in any matchup. Regardless, you have little choice but to play him with so little options to choose from.

The guy who scores highest tonight in model at SG is J.J. Redick. Redick easily scores in the double-digits most nights for a very low price. The Rockets are allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg and 20.2 ppg to shooting guards on the season and with Redick’s ability to put up 30 points on a red hot night he should be in your lineup for the price.

The problem with Courtney Lee is you never know what you are going to get. He is the typical matchup dependent play. Well tonight he certainly has that matchup. The Pacers are allowing the third most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and when Lee goes off he can give you 30 fantasy points for a price just over the $4K mark on FanDuel. Keep in mind he scored over 35 fantasy points on Dec. 16 versus a Bulls team that defends the shooting guard seventh best in the NBA.

Four overtimes last night. Basically, this kept you safe in cash games but if you had zero exposure to the Bulls-Pistons game last night you were practically sunk, or at least not taking any first place trophies or bankrolls home. Jimmy Butler played 56 minutes last night scoring 43 points for over 60 fantasy points. The Knicks are a good team defensively minus defending the SG position. They are allowing 22.1 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and as long as Butler isn’t worn out he should feast again tonight.

Small Forward

Nicolas Batum left Wednesday’s game versus the Magic due to illness and sat out again on Thursday night. Well today is Saturday. He should be fine. He also scores the highest in my model at the SF position tonight. In the last two games he has played more than 30 minutes and has scored more than 20 points while putting up close to 30 fantasy points in each. Tonight he faces a Washington team allowing 24.2 ppg (the most in the NBA) and the most fantasy ppg to small forwards. How can you not use him?

Carmelo Anthony is always the greatest player I never use. I am, however, using him today on the three-game early slate to dispel this theory. Anthony tonight is the SF on the slate with the highest ceiling (minus Paul George) but as usual the price point leans me towards spending up or spending down. He is, however, red hot right now scoring over 40 fantasy ppg in three of the last four hitting the 50 mark once. The Bulls are allowing the 18^th most fantasy ppg to the SF position which I find less than favorable but he is one of four small forwards on the slate I would play.

Naturally Paul George is going to make an appearance on a night with little to choose from. He also has a great matchup with Memphis allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to small forwards. George has failed to score 40 fantasy ppg now in five straight games. This to me is like Mike Trout going 0-for-20 versus John Danks. Way overdue and recency bias might keep his ownership on the lower side.

Trevor Ariza has been playing very good as of late. In the last four games he has scored 24, 32, 26, and 31 fantasy ppg on FanDuel. The Clippers defend the small forward fairly well allowing the 13^th fewest fantasy ppg to small forwards but Ariza has scored in the double-digits in the three straight. With very few options he is a top play.

Power Forward

So you have heard me mention how I use a model. Well here is the thing about it.  The highest possible score is 28. I assure you, I will never see one. The highest I have seen thus far is 25. That is Blake Griffin tonight. You see, the thing is though, in this model, one of the factors is the player’s salary on the site I am playing on. Griffin is very expensive therefore in my model his score for that factor is low making it impossible to ever score a 28. The highest he can possibly score at his current price point is 25. Whenever a player scores this high in my model I build my lineup around him.

Griffin is averaging over 24 points, 8 rebounds, and 41 fantasy ppg. In eight straight games he has scored at least 30 fantasy ppg and tonight faces a Rockets team allowing the most ppg to the power forward position at 24 and the most fantasy ppg as well. If he is not 100 percent owned tonight someone did not do their homework. Keep in mind, if he gives you 35 fantasy points tonight you will be let down but also he is the only player I am sure will give you at least that at the PF position. That means everything.

The list is short today at this position. If we follow the "every other game theory" Kristaps Porzingis could be in for a good game. He just hit the 20 fantasy point mark last night versus the Sixers. Which, I have to say I find rather disheartening. I take that as a bad game. So on this principle I might be willing to let the elves out of the cupboard tonight to wreak havoc on their lowly Keebler counterparts. People are so disgusted by our woodland friend that they might find themselves looking elsewhere, leaving his ownership down. The thought process that drives this is we are still thinking of the production we were getting at the $7,500 mark not the $6,400 mark. The reason a price drops to the $6K range is because a player has a high ceiling and equally high inconsistency rate. So everything about Porzingis makes sense from a price standpoint and at the moment he is sitting nervously in my cash game lineup.

Marvin Williams, who reminds me for some reason of the little green Martian guy in the old Bugs Bunny cartoons, is about the only guy I will pair with Griffin tonight if not Porzingis. Williams does have that rare 30 fantasy point upside as he did it versus Toronto on Thursday night. In four of the six games in the last 10 that Williams played 30 minutes he scored over 20 fantasy ppg four times hitting 30 once. Tonight he gets a tougher matchup with the Wizards allowing the ninth fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards but a fairly high 20.8 ppg. This position is full of “maybes” tonight and Williams is among the best options to choose from.

Center

DeAndre Jordan tops the list today at the center position. With such a high expected point total and close line both himself and Dwight Howard naturally will float to the top in my model. Or at least get a serious look.

In eight of the last nine games Jordan has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg while putting up three double-doubles in the last five games. The Rockets are a little below average defensively at the center position, allowing the 18^th most fantasy ppg and in this shootout Jordan could be a difference maker.

Howard only came in one point lower than Jordan today due to such a close matchup. The Clippers are allowing the 20^th most fantasy ppg to centers and 20.7 ppg as well. Howard has two double-doubles in the last four games and if you can afford him or Jordan you should play them.

I have to be honest I am up in the air right now as to who I am using tonight at center. I am waiting to see if anyone sits or any last minute value pops up. The only other guy I kind of like besides the two studs above is Robin Lopez. I love the matchup with a tired Chicago team that allows the 24^th most fantasy ppg to centers. Oh, I also love the $3,700 price tag on FanDuel. What I do not love, however, is the ceiling on this play as Lopez has only scored 20 fantasy ppg or more twice in the last ten games. Both versus teams (Brooklyn and Portland) who defensively are lacking as well. If he is going to do it again tonight would be the night. Or, he could give you seven fantasy points leading you to leave nasty comments on message boards about me. The big decision is this…Is the savings worth the risk versus what possible upgrades the money will allow you?

Well that is it for tonight guys. I wish I could have given you more plays but I am not going to force feed them to you. These are what they are, the plays I like. Good luck and I will be back on Monday.

One more thing, remember to not overthink things tonight. On these small slates you do not look for who to play…you look for who to avoid.

As always if you need me send me message on Twitter @geraldcolvin73.