NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 16, 2015

I should know better, at this point, than to have any expectations for NBA DFS games. I thought for sure I would have an easier time finding cheap DFS plays with 12 games on the Wednesday slate. I was wrong. The NBA is remarkably healthy for the dog days of December, and it is hard to find value plays you can trust or who have much upside. Finding both is nearly impossible. There are studs I really like Wednesday, especially on the perimeter, but I doubt I will fit more than one into any of my lineups.

Point Guard

Goran Dragic is averaging seven assists per game over his last seven games, and the Nets have given up more assists per game than any team this season. If Dwyane Wade’s illness keeps him out, Dragic would be a great DFS play.

Jerryd Bayless has missed Milwaukee’s last six games, and Michael Carter-Williams has reached 17 points in four of those six games. Carter-Williams may never be consistent enough to trust for cash games, but he is a solid GPP play while Bayless is out.

No team has allowed as many fantasy points to opposing point guards as the Phoenix Suns, and I think the Suns at least keep this game close enough that Stephen Curry has to play most of the fourth quarter.

I thought for sure when Fred Hoiberg replaced Tom Thibodeau, the days of Kirk Hinrich and E’Twaun Moore getting meaningful minutes were over. That has not been the case, and Aaron Brooks’s fantasy production has suffered as a result. Brooks had his best game of the season Saturday, and while he didn’t play much against the terrible 76ers, he could see a lot of minutes against Memphis, especially if Derrick Rose is slowed by his illness. I trust Brooks even less than I trust Michael Carter-Williams, but he is cheaper, and just as capable of scoring 20 points if given the opportunity.

If you want a cheap point guard who won’t give you heart palpitations, can I interest you in Ramon Sessions? He has at scored least 14 points in each of the three games Bradley Beal has missed while averaging 3.7 assists.

Shooting Guard

I am probably filling my shooting guard spot(s) like last Wednesday. There are a lot of solid options, but nobody I am just dying to get in my lineup. If I get to the end and have some money to spend, I will happily spend it on Eric Bledsoe. The Warriors are fifth in the NBA in opponent’s steals, and Bledsoe is averaging 2.6 steals per game. Bledsoe is as good as anyone at turning those steals into points on the other end.

On the other hand, shooting guard may be the best position to save some money on a night where quality punt plays are hard to find. Gerald Green averaged 16.3 points over his last three games with Tyler Johnson out, and while Johnson will likely return Wednesday, Dwyane Wade’s illness could help Green continue his streak of solid play.

The Timberwolves have allowed the seventh-most opponents' points this season, and they are on the road after playing Tuesday night. The Knicks haven’t played since Saturday, and Aaron Afflalo is one of the few Knicks who sees enough minutes to take advantage of the favorable matchup. When you consider the dearth of great shooting guard options Wednesday, Afflalo looks even better.

I’m not necessarily counting on Monta Ellis to have a huge game against his former team Wednesday, but an extra bit of motivation certainly couldn’t hurt. Perhaps more importantly, Ellis is averaging 17.7 points and 3.7 steals over the last week.

Small Forward

No team in the NBA has allowed as many three-pointers as the Wizards, who are also fifth in the NBA in points allowed. It sure sounds to me like a good day to play Kawhi Leonard. Like point guard and shooting guard, I like one expensive option followed by a bunch of cheaper players.

Gordon Hayward had scored at least 17 points in 12 consecutive games before getting shut down by the Spurs Monday, and I expect him to start a new streak Wednesday against a Pelicans team that is allowing the most points in the NBA this season. Jerami Grant and Robert Covington could both benefit from Nerlens Noel being out. I couldn’t imagine playing both guys, but Grant is a solid value while Covington has a much higher ceiling.

Jared Dudley is averaging 11.7 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.0 assists with Bradley Beal out, and while those numbers may not be exciting, they are worth something considering his modest price tag.

Power Forward

Power forward may be the position that fluctuates most based on your site of choice. I like a bunch of mid-priced options, and will probably just pick the cheapest of them for my individual lineups. Power forward is also the only position where I’m not really interested in one of the highest-priced options. Anthony Davis could easily make me look stupid for writing that sentence, but I am confident I can find fantasy points elsewhere.

Kristaps Porzingis has admitted he hit the rookie wall this month, and he should benefit greatly from the Knicks’ three days off. I doubt I will use him much going forward, but I predict a bounce-back game Wednesday. He is an especially nice value on FantasyFeud.

Jahlil Okafor has scored at least 22 points in four consecutive games, and while I expect that streak to end sooner than later, I think Okafor will have more room to operate inside with Tony Wroten in the lineup and Nerlens Noel out.

As much as I like Porzingis and Okafor, Serge Ibaka is the best value on DraftKings. The Trail Blazers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards, and it is hard to imagine Portland will have any answer for the Russell Westbrook-Serge Ibaka pick-and-roll. 

It is always dangerous to try to predict who will benefit when Greg Popovich gives a veteran a day off, but LaMarcus Aldridge scored a season-high 26 points—in only 22 minutes—the last time Tim Duncan sat. That game was against the 76ers, but the Wizards have allowed even more points than the 76ers this season, and Washington doesn’t appear to have anyone who can match up defensively with Aldridge.

If you need a cheap alternative to the players above, John Henson is a solid, albeit boring, choice. He played a career-high 24 minutes with Greg Monroe out Tuesday, and he could play even more if the Bucks can keep Wednesday’s game close. Monroe could return Wednesday, and you should check his status before you put Henson in your lineup.

Center

Miles Plumlee matched John Henson with 24 minutes Tuesday, collecting 10 points and eight rebounds. On the one hand, Plumlee’s minutes were probably helped by the lopsided score, but on the other hand, Plumlee probably earned some more playing time. While Henson is a fairly safe cash game play, Plumlee is worth a shot in a GPP.

As for the Clippers, DeAndre Jordan had nine points, 19 rebounds and three blocks against the Milwaukee Bucks a week ago, and he could potentially have an even easier time on the glass if Greg Monroe is out.

The Bulls have allowed the most fantasy points in the league to opposing centers, which is nearly inconceivable considering they still have Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson. Marc Gasol should have a field day.