NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 15, 2015

With the great Houston, Sacramento, Denver, and Los Angeles Lakers defenses all playing tonight on a small four-game slate you can well imagine that the pay lines in 50/50s and double-ups will be higher than a card holder at a marijuana dispensary.

As for myself I hit a wall made of Otter Pops last night as John Wall and Otto Porter killed what would have been a great lineup. Although the NFL was kind to me again this week the NBA last night was cruel. The thing I like best about DFS is that tonight, well, I will get my money back.

Try as I may on this small slate the position coach will be shortened a little with it. I will not force feed you plays I will not use. If I only like a few guys then that is all I like. Ultimately this article is a guide to what I consider the best plays on the board. And I must say, it absolutely kills me that no Celtics made the cut tonight.

Let’s cash some lineups together tonight.

Point Guard

"Golem," or Rajon Rondo, apparently has a problem keeping his slurs in check. To be honest I do not pay a lot of attention to the antics the athletes pull on and off the court. I only take notice when it effects my fantasy lineups. Like tonight. Golem should be serving a one-game suspension tonight, opening the door for Darren Collison. In six of the last 10 games Collison has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg hitting the 30 mark once for the most part coming off the bench. Tonight he is starting in a game with a HUGE expected point total of 220 in what is slated to be close with Sacramento being 2.5-point favorites. With the minutes available and the Rockets allowing 21 ppg and the 24^th most fantasy ppg to point guards Collison becomes a must play for the price.

If you are going to spend up tonight at the point guard position I cannot reasonably see going any higher than Ricky Rubio. Rubio is averaging nearly 30 fantasy ppg and provides double-double potential on a nightly basis in the form of points and assists. He has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in four of the last six and should have his way with a Denver defense allowing 23.3 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to point guards.

With the Timberwolves allowing an incredible 24.8 ppg to point guards for the price Jameer Nelson is the guy I am rolling out tonight. He has scored 61.2 fantasy points in the last two games on FanDuel scoring into the double-digits in each. His price is only $4,200 in a game with a decent 204 expected point total and I see him hitting the 30 mark tonight.

Almost impossible not to include Collison’s counterpart tonight Patrick Beverley. Beverley is that classic matchup-dependent play and tonight he has got a doozy. We have already discussed the huge expected point total here so how about the Kings, who are allowing the 28^th most fantasy ppg overall. This means that every Rocket is a viable play in some form tonight. With Sacramento allowing 22.4 ppg to point guards Beverley has that good matchup and should be heavily owned.

Michael Carter-Williams could end up being the top fantasy producer at the PG position on the slate tonight. He has scored over 37 fantasy ppg in two of the last three games. Tonight facing the Lakers, who if you haven’t paid attention really stink, he should dominate. They are allowing 23.7 ppg and the most fantasy ppg in the NBA to point guards giving Williams the highest ceiling of the guys listed. It all comes down to how many minutes he ends up getting.

Shooting Guard

Ok, this one is easy tonight. Insert James Harden and start building the rest of your lineup. Sound familiar? It should because it is what I wrote on Saturday and Monday. At this pace I should be able to just copy and paste my article daily and call it a day. Tonight he scored the highest out of any other player in my model across the board. The Sacramento Kings are allowing 23.8 ppg to shooting guards on the season which is the highest in the NBA. Harden has failed to achieve value now in two straight games which tells me he is way overdue. Back to back or not, I am all in on Fozzy the Beard tonight.

I have to tell you that my next-favorite play is actually playing in the PG position tonight. O.J. Mayo gets to play the Lakers tonight. We all know this story. They are allowing 23.7 ppg and the most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. Mayo has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in six straight and has that 30-point upside in a great matchup…like tonight.

You have two bucks you could spend in the shooting guard slot tonight on FanDuel if you so choose. The Greek God Giannis Antetokounmpo has a good matchup up on a board full of great ones. He is playing at SF but FanDuel has him slotted at SG with Mayo. He had a triple-double in his last game versus the Warriors (who didn’t come out and play) and I cannot imagine on what planet he does not put up easily 30 fantasy points tonight.

If you want a guy in the early game then J.R. Smith scored high in my model tonight. The Celtics are allowing 21 ppg to shooting guards and Smith has picked up his game as of late, scoring over 20 fantasy ppg in six out of the last nine. He missed his last game with an illness that appears to be going around the NBA but should be fine for tonight. He is cheap and with all the high-scoring matchups elsewhere he becomes a great GPP play tonight.

Kevin Martin has scored a ton of fantasy points in the last three games for the low price of $4,500 on FanDuel. He is scoring easily in the double-digits lately and faces a Denver team allowing the third most fantasy ppg to shooting guards.

Small Forward

LeBron James should easily show the world why he is the king facing a Celtics defense allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to small forwards. On a slate with limited upside superstar wise, and value everywhere, I cannot see any reason to fade James tonight. In the last three games he has scored over 50 fantasy points in two of them with two double-doubles in the last five games. He should be high owned and for good reason.

We have two players in the SF slot on FanDuel for Sacramento. Both Rudy Gay and Omri Casspi are almost must plays. Gay faces a Rockets team playing at SF that is allowing 21 ppg and the 28^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards while Casspi playing at PF where the Rockets are allowing the most fantasy ppg in the NBA to power forwards. For the price I prefer Casspi but Gay has the higher ceiling. You could even use both if you do not like taking James.

Trevor Ariza demands consideration this evening with the Kings allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards. He has that double-digit scoring upside and can, on a good night, get you into the low 30 fantasy point range. His big problem is inconsistency. For the price in this matchup you certainly will have a tough choice in this one. I will have exposure to him in my GPP lineup.

One guy who I do love tonight is actually a shooting guard and he is playing the Lakers. His name is Khris Middleton and he suffers from Kristaps Porzingis syndrome. He has a good game then a bad game. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in two straight so by this theory he is a complete fade tonight. But, when you take the fact the Lakers are allowing 23.4 ppg to shooting guards (which is very high in the SF slot) and the 27^th most fantasy ppg as well it sure seems like you almost have to play him.

Power Forward

This position is thin tonight. I mean very thin. I find these three guys right now to be the only options I will be using tonight at the position.

If Clint Capela is unable to play again tonight then Terrence Jones becomes almost a must play at the PF position. Jones is a game-time decision with a lacerated eyelid, but he scores the highest tonight at PF in my model. The Kings are allowing the 27^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards and Jones when given the minutes can easily net you 25 fantasy points. As always, it all comes down to minutes.

One guy I am using in cash games tonight is none other than Kevin Love. He is the highest priced power forward on the slate and also has the most upside. He has scored over 35 fantasy ppg in two straight games while posting two double-doubles in the last four. The Celtics are allowing 21.3 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to power forwards and Love should take full advantage of all of it tonight in what is supposed to be a close game.

I love that late bullet, and I also love picking on the Lakers. If basketball players were all school yard bullies the Laker team would weigh 57 pounds from going lunchless. I mean, they are a mess. It is becoming almost a plug and play to take players from anyone facing them.

Jabari Parker scored 19 points and netted over 30 fantasy points in his last game versus the Warriors who were undefeated but now have tasted the simple humility of everyday life like the rest of us. The Lakers are also allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to the PF position. Right now he is in my cash game lineup for tonight.

Center

I do not see any need to go cheap tonight center. With all the value at the other positions if you do not take at least one of these four guys you could be left behind in cash games, and quick.

Dwight Howard and Greg Monroe both are a tie tonight in my model and score the highest. Howard is a little older and is playing in back-to-back games so I give the bump to Monroe.

Howard, however, is averaging over 33 fantasy ppg with 13 points and 12 rebounds. The Kings are allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to centers and as discussed we have a huge expected point total here.

Monroe is the guy right now I want to fit into my cash game lineup. Consistency is my favorite attribute when taking him. In seven out of nine games he has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg hitting the 40 mark once. He has four double-doubles in the last five games and faces a Lakers team allowing 21.7 ppg and the 27^th most fantasy ppg.

Karl-Anthony Towns is the guy currently sitting in my cash game lineup, although I would like to fit Monroe. Towns is averaging over 14 points and nine rebounds per game and faces a Denver team allowing 21.3 ppg and the 28^th most fantasy ppg to centers. He also has the highest upside at the position between him and Monroe. The more I type, the less I want to swap them.

DeMarcus Cousins comes in fourth tonight in my model at the center position and for good reason. For whatever reason “Boogie” dances to the tune of inconsistency. It seems you just cannot gauge when he is going to perform and when he is not. He has picked it up, barely achieving what I consider value in the last two games which scares me even more. With all this said tonight he is facing a Houston team with a tired Howard who is allowing the 17^th most fantasy points to the center position. With better matchups on the board I may still use him, but only in a cheap $1 or $2 GPP.

Well that is all from  me until Friday. Family, Christmas shopping, etc. I will be back on later to see if you guys have any questions and as always you can hit me up on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73.

I will be posting another FantasyAlarm DFS Playbook PRO league tonight sometime around 4:30 pm EST.