NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 11, 2015

I cannot believe it took me over four hours to do my research today for this article. What a nightmare slate. I cannot express the amount of variables I see tonight and possibilities for huge pay lines. While most prefer these huge slates I myself will be playing a little lighter this evening. I find most of the time when I do get spanked by the DFS gods it is on a giant 11-game slate like this where you need to score 345 points on FanDuel to cash a 50/50. So being I have had the busiest morning of all time and I am just starting this article now at 12:30 pm EST I find it fitting today to get right into things and spare you the mundane details of my meager existence. Let’s get to cashing some lineups.

Point Guard

Fourteen, this is the number of point guards I actually like tonight in the NBA for #DFS purposes. Now, let’s be real here, I obviously will not play them all and certainly it would defeat the purpose of this article if I said I liked pretty much everyone. Most nights I run three lineups at most. I do not get crazy. I find I succeed best when I make one main lineup I enter in everything and two stars and scrubs GPP lineups I use in cheap multi entry GPP’s. So with much work and running each guy carefully through my model, and what I consider good sense I can tell you the one guy I am playing for sure tonight is John Wall. In the last six games Wall has scored more than 50 fantasy ppg four times. Tonight he is playing in a game with the highest expected point total of the evening at 216 in what Vegas has deemed a shootout (NOP -3). The New Orleans Pelicans are a fantasy cash register. They are allowing the 29^th most fantasy ppg and 25.2 ppg point guards which is the most in the NBA.

As of right now, even though he scores low in my model I have Stephen Curry in my cash game lineup along with Wall. Here is the thing, the Boston Celtics are allowing a NBA low 17.2 ppg and the fewest fantasy ppg to point guards. IF, and I cannot express this enough, Klay Thompson plays, then I will completely fade Curry tonight. If he does not play, I am all in. The amount of shot opportunities alone mixed in with Curry’s ability to put up over 50 fantasy ppg (which he has done twice in the last three games) makes him a must play. IF Thompson sits.

The guy who actually scored highest in my model tonight is Ricky Rubio. He is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg and tonight is facing a Denver team that allows 23.7 ppg and the 28^th most fantasy ppg to point guards. Minnesota is only a one-point favorite in a game with a decent expected point total of 202. Rubio has absolutely picked it up as of late throwing out assists by the bucket load. His price is fair across the industry and he has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in three straight. I will have some exposure to him somewhere tonight.

Kemba Walker tonight is playing the Memphis Grizzlies in what feels like a mediocre game at best, but for the price Walker is in a great position to exceed expectations. He easily scores into the double-digits most nights and is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg. With the Grizzlies allowing 24.6 ppg and the 24^th most fantasy ppg to point guards Walker certainly deserves a look.

One guy who I do like tonight for cheap is Matthew Dellavedova. His price is only $4,400 on FanDuel tonight facing an Orlando team allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to point guards. Dellavedova scored 17 points and over 25 fantasy points on Tuesday versus Portland. With Mo Williams putting up stinkers left and right he should continue to see minutes.

Emmanuel Mudiay is another fine option tonight especially in GPP. The Timberwolves are allowing a whopping 24.5 ppg to point guards on the season. Mudiay’s fantasy numbers have been inconsistent making him that classic matchup dependent play which is right where I feel he is tonight. I would not use him in cash games but he will make at least one of my GPP’s.

Shooting Guard

One thing I love about using a model every day, especially one I created, is I have the ability to look at a slate and just know generally where it is going to lead me. For instance, it does not take a brain surgeon to figure out the Pelican-Wizards game is a bevy of fantasy Cha-Ching.

I knew right away Bradley Beal would surface near the top. Well, he came in second at the SG position. Beal, up until Wednesday night versus the Rockets, had scored more than 20 ppg in three straight. During this span he scored more than 110 fantasy points combined. Tonight he is facing a Pelicans team allowing 21 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. The price is fair and he should feast tonight in this high-scoring affair.

Scoring the highest today in my model, and the one guy for the price I will be using for sure tonight, is Eric Gordon. On FanDuel he is only $5,000. Here is the risk, we have another inconsistent player who you only use in the right matchup. In the last 10 games Gordon has hit the 30 fantasy ppg mark twice to Oklahoma City and Phoenix both who allow less ppg to shooting guards. The Pelicans are allowing 24 ppg and the most fantasy points in the NBA to shooting guards and Gordon should hit 30 tonight for cheap.

Another guy in a great matchup is C.J. McCollum. Not only do the Phoenix Suns allow 22.5 ppg to shooting guards they also allow the 21^st most fantasy ppg as well. I love to have that late bullet and I cannot think of a better one to have than a guy who has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in four straight hitting the 37 mark once. This game has a high expected point total of 209 and depending on what develops I may use him in my cash games.

Did you think I would forget to pick on the Lakers? Well if you did, you were wrong. This game is slated to be a blowout tonight with the Spurs being 14.5-point favorites. Well we all know that Danny Green for fantasy purposes is about as valuable as a penny in a bucket of pennies. So he is not an option. In the last three games Manu Ginobili has played he put in more than 20 minutes while scoring over 20 fantasy ppg. I expect him to see plenty of them tonight facing a Lakers team allowing 21.1 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to shooting guards.  

The Jazz tend to slow things down and force teams to play their game. Tonight they are playing the Thunder in a game with a 204 expected point total and are also 2.5-point underdogs. The other night Rodney Hood put up a stinker on me. It happens. With the Thunder allowing 21.6 ppg to shooting guards and Hoods low price across the industry he makes a fine GPP play tonight.

Small Forward

The small forward position tonight is shaky. It is full of great plays and players in great matchups. This brings us back to the whole finding a needle in a stack of needles thing. Marcus Morris tonight for the price has the highest upside at the position in my opinion. Morris has slumped as of late failing to score 20 fantasy ppg in three straight. Some see this as a reason to fade him. This makes me want to play him.

He is averaging over 14 ppg and over 25 fantasy ppg as well. The Sixers are allowing the 29^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and I cannot see a better night for him to get back on track.

I am going cheap tonight at the SF position, that I can tell you. Another cheap guy I really like who is in a great matchup is Al-Farouq Aminu. Not only do I get a late bullet in a game with a high expected point total but I also get a guy with the ability to get me 25 fantasy points in a great matchup. The Phoenix Suns are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg and nearly 20 ppg to match it to small forwards. I have him in my cash game lineup right now and he should stay there unless something greater pops up later.

Otto Porter has to get some consideration tonight facing a Pelicans team that allows the 27^th most fantasy ppg overall. In the last four games Porter has scored more than 20 fantasy points twice while hitting both 30 and 40 once. His price remains low and the expected scoring is high. What is not to like? Plus the kids really like Otter Pops in my house.

Khris Middleton is the only player I like in the Bucks-Raptors game. The Raptors are allowing 21.9 ppg to the shooting guard position on the season. This is high in the SG range, you take a player out of the SG slot and place him in the SF slot on FanDuel then that 21.9 ppg is liken to the second most in the SF slot. You see where I am going here? They also allow the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to the SG position as well. I am all in on Middleton tonight.

You know who I like tonight as a low owned GPP play? Don’t think of me as mad, but I am going to say Alonzo Gee. I am not going to try and hype him up too much because there is a 90 percent chance he puts up less than 10 points tonight. But I say 90 percent for a reason. In the last 10 games, one time versus the Phoenix Suns, who allow 19.7 ppg to the small forward position, Gee put up 28 fantasy points in a little over 30 minutes. Tonight he gets the Wizards who allowing 23.5 ppg and the most fantasy points in the NBA to small forwards. If I said I wasn’t going to use him in at least one lineup tonight I would be lying.

Power Forward

I plan on fitting in Stephen Curry, John Wall, and Anthony Davis into my cash games tonight. As far as the PF position goes he is clearly the top dog on the slate. Davis is averaging over 44 fantasy ppg and in six of the last eight games he has scored more than 50, eclipsing the 60 mark once versus the Suns. He has four double-doubles in the last five games and should feast tonight on a Washington team allowing 21.7 ppg to power forwards.

If you feel the price tag on Davis is a bit high for you then how about Draymond Green? With this game having a high 214.5 expected game total facing a Celtics team allowing 21.8 ppg and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to power forwards he is without a doubt a top option. In the last eight games he has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg three times while hitting the 40 mark twice and the 50 mark once. His price is high but so is his production.

Time to look for value so you can afford the Anthony Davis and Draymond Greens of the world in your lineup. A guy who I absolutely love tonight for the price is Jon Leuer. Leuer tonight faces a Portland team allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season. He has scored in the double-digits in five straight games with one double-double. In this span he has scored over 20 fantasy two times hitting 30 once and 40 once. Not bad for the low price of $4,500 on FanDuel.

Ersan Ilyasova every time I take him sucks. I know this sounds harsh but it is true. The last two times I have taken him he has put up 15 and 5.2 points on FanDuel for me. The games I did not take him he scored 27.3, 22.6, 33.1, and 26.9. This, my friends, gets my goat. Bad. So tonight I am going to try him again. The Sixers are allowing 22.9 ppg and the second most fantasy ppg to power forwards. I have to try again, I must. COME ON ERSAN!

You know who cannot stop power forwards? The Milwaukee Bucks can’t. You know who is coming off a great game versus a tough San Antonio defense where he scored over 27 fantasy points for pennies? Luis Scola. He is another great play in the right matchup and tonight is that night. The Bucks are allowing 23.9 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards. His price is low and his chances are good. Re-Scola!

Center

Marcin Gortat is, in my opinion, the top play at center tonight when you factor in price versus matchup versus upside. His price is more than fair at $6300 tonight on FanDuel. He has also scored over 30 fantasy points in four straight games including 35 in his first game back from injury on Wednesday versus the Rockets. Tonight he gets a Pelicans team allowing 21.8 ppg and the most fantasy ppg in the NBA to centers. All in.

Karl-Anthony Towns won me a few bucks the other night. He could do the same for you this evening. The Nuggets are always a bevy of fantasy value for their opponents. Tonight is no different. The Nuggets are allowing 21.6 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to centers. Towns has two double-doubles in the last three games and should have no problem tonight getting another.

If you really want to play tonight at the center position than Andre Drummond is without a doubt the way to go. The Sixers allow a ton of fantasy points to the center position and Drummond is really good at finding them. In the last seven games he has scored more than 40 fantasy points five times hitting 50 three times in the last 10. He has the highest ceiling and the price to match it.

If Tyson Chandler is out then the guy I am using tonight myself in cash games is Alex Len. The Trailblazers are allowing the second most fantasy ppg and 22.2 ppg to centers on the season. Len has scored 26, 27, and 41 fantasy points on FanDuel in the last three games for the low price of $4,700. If he starts I will use him over Gortat and upgrade elsewhere.

Well that is all for tonight. I will be back on later to see if you guys have any questions and as always you can hit me up on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73

I will be posting another Position Coach league tonight sometime around 4:30 pm EST. Congrats to all of last night’s winners. Great Job!