NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 5, 2015

The world of DFS is a strange place. It is one of the few places where a bar owner, a lawyer, a radio host, a college professor, and a stock market trader can all work in the same industry together. It also has its own cast of celebrities and cliques just like anything else in life. You have those guys at the bottom like myself who are trying to scratch out a piece of an ever shrinking pie. You have those guys that have worked hard and are at the top and trying hard to stay there. And you have those guys who are legends in their own mind.

I know most of you read this article in hopes of winning money. Why else would you subscribe? To me, DFS is more than money. DFS is who I am. I love this industry and everyone in it. I am not rich, I go through losing streaks like everyone else, and I put my pants on one leg at a time.

My wife now uses the playbooks here on FantasyAlarm to build lineups. She plays sports I never play. She even showed me a list of 50/50’s she cashed in Hockey the other night. I had no idea what a monster I created. But I have to admit I love sitting around now on Sunday mornings going over who lets up the most points to the TE in the NFL with her. Believe me, she has endured many grumpy nights from a losing Jerry Colvin.

I guess where I am going with this is unless you are foolish and playing DFS with your kids' college fund you are doing this because you enjoy it. You love building lineups, reading articles, and being an active participant on this site and others. You love tweeting at experts, asking questions, telling them they were wrong, or just thanking them for taking the time to help you. At the end of the day, win or lose, all of this is part of the experience. It is all what makes us part of this community, our own family of sorts. I am no better than you, or you me. We are all people who love sports and love the experience of combining it with the chance of winning a few bucks. One thing I will never be is a “fantasy elitist.”

If you ever have any question hit me up on Twitter @geraldcolvin73. Just ask some of our other subscribers, I will help you. Let’s cash some lineups.

Point Guard

If you do any investigating on your own prior to my article then you should already know the game I am going to attack the heaviest tonight is the Sacramento Kings-Houston Rockets game. This game is close with Houston being 2.5-point favorites with a huge expected point total of 219. As I stated the other night when I foolishly stacked four Celtics I do not like to stack in the NBA. I will, however, make sure to get at least two guys from each team in my lineup tonight.

The one guys who for sure I am using in cash games tonight is "Golem," Rajon Rondo. Rondo has gone three straight games without a double-double. We have that Big Papi after two weeks without a home run thing going on here. Prior to the last three games he had nine double-doubles in 11 games with four of them being triple-doubles. The Rockets are allowing 21.3 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy points to point guards in the NBA. If money is precious to you then Golem can help you win it.

The other guy with so much value on the board today I can afford to put in my cash game lineup along with Rondo is Damian Lillard. Lillard is averaging over 25 points, seven assists, four rebounds, and 39 fantasy ppg. Not only does the game have the second highest expected point total of the night at 203 but the Timberwolves are allowing 24.1 ppg to point guards which is tied for the most in the NBA with the Lakers. I would make sure if anything else to at least use one of these two if not both like myself.

Another guy who scored highly in my model tonight is Ricky Rubio. He just returned from an ankle injury on Tuesday night and put up a stinker, scoring only three points with five rebounds in 27 minutes. He has had an additional three days off and tonight gets a Portland team allowing 22.2 ppg to point guards. Rubio has that ability to explode for 35 fantasy points and tonight is a good a night as any.

The next guy scored higher than Rondo in my model tonight which is where common sense comes into play. Patrick Beverley has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in four of the last five games and one he missed on was just short. His price is only $3,900 on FanDuel tonight facing a Kings team allowing 22.7 ppg and the 24^th most fantasy ppg to point guards. Two things you can count on in this world, my love for food, and my usage of Beverley in my GPP lineups tonight.

Elfrid Payton has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in three of the last five games and is averaging over 26 fantasy ppg on the season. If you are looking for a late bullet tonight this is a great option with the Clippers allowing 21.1 ppg to point guards.

One quick note, Austin Rivers is starting for Chris Paul tonight for the minimum and makes a decent punt play although for the price difference I prefer Beverly.

Shooting Guard

The Sacramento Kings are allowing 24 ppg to shooting guards. This is the most in the NBA. They are also allowing the 28^th most fantasy ppg as well to shooting guards. You see where I am heading with this? I am not going to get numbers heavy because we all know who James Harden is. Put him in tonight before anyone else in cash games and build your lineup around him. Period.

Outside of Harden I have no intentions on spending up at this position tonight so I am going to provide you with four cheaper guys to look at. The guy I plan on pairing with Harden tonight in cash games is O.J. Mayo. Not only do I think of a Turkey and Swiss grinder (which, by the way, is my favorite) but I find myself thirsty as well when researching Mayo. In the last four games he has scored more than 25 fantasy points in two games. His price is only $3,700 on FanDuel tonight facing a Knicks team allowing 22.5 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. Keep in mind his upside is limited but at the price I cannot resist.

Zach LaVine has played more than 25 minutes in nine of the last 10 games this season. In this span he has scored more than 30 fantasy points five times. He has scored in the double-digits in 12 straight games while scoring more than 20 points three times. With Portland allowing 23.2 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to the SG position on the season LaVine is hard to pass up at the low price of $5,800 on FanDuel tonight. If I end up taking the Mayo off my sandwich I will plug in LaVine.

Dwyane Wade has looked good lately. If you call scoring 65 points in the last two games good. Hint: it is. In that time he scored 44.8 and 38.8 fantasy points on FanDuel. He should see plenty of opportunity facing a Cavs team that played into overtime last night and if you want to spend up outside of Harden this is the guy.

For the most part the Indiana-Utah game is dead to me. Why attack a game with two of the toughest defenses in the NBA when you do not have to right? Well, I have mixed feelings. The Pacers are allowing 21 ppg and the second most fantasy points to shooting guards on the season. A guy who should be low owned tonight is Alec Burks. Burks plays heavy minutes on a nightly basis and is averaging over 20 ppg in the last three games. In a GPP he is a great play.

You want to get super sneaky, The Spurs are allowing the fewest points to shooting guards in the NBA at 15.2 ppg. They are also allowing the fewest fantasy ppg as well. The one guy I would avoid tonight like the plague is Avery Bradley. He is averaging over 24 fantasy ppg and is red hot right now scoring over 20 points in two straight games. Someone still has to score for the Celtics right? If you want to take a shot in a GPP he could be a great play if he goes off tonight.

Small Forward

I find this position especially tricky today. All the guys you would expect to see at the top did not surface today. Although LeBron James and Paul George are great plays any night I will be completely fading them tonight. I just do not see the need to spend up on them.

Nicolas Batum has two double-doubles in the last five games and is scoring into the double-digits nightly. He has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in four of the last five games eclipsing the 40 mark twice. The Bulls are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and Batum should feast tonight for far less money than the King-George combo.

Trevor Ariza scored 18 points last night versus the Nuggets for a total of 33.7 fantasy points on FanDuel. He is averaging over 23 fantasy ppg and tonight faces a Kings team in a shootout that is allowing everyone in the NBA to score on them. I cannot express enough the need to get exposure to this game tonight in your cash games and Ariza is a nice option for cheap.

Rudy Gay will be happier than a gaggle of geese being fed hot dogs tonight facing a Rockets team allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to small forwards in the NBA. He is averaging almost 20 points and seven rebounds per game and for $7,000 on FanDuel is another nice option to get you some exposure to the highest expected point total of the evening.

I hate to take anyone versus the Celtics. But it is hard to ignore Kawhi Leonard. Not only is he averaging almost 40 fantasy ppg but he is also scoring easily into the 20s most nights. I find it hard to narrow down the offense most nights on this Spurs team but Leonard is always a steady contributor. With the Celtics allowing their fair share of points to small forwards (20.3 ppg) if you want to spend up on Leonard you should get what you pay for.

I ended up as always last night not using Carmelo Anthony. This happens every time he comes up in my model. It is that weird $8,300 price tag. Tonight is no different. I would rather spend down on Batum or up to Leonard before using Anthony. If you however want to use him, like I should have last night when he put up over 40 fantasy points he is in a great match up again tonight and ranks high in my model.

Power Forward

At this point it seems that whenever Kristaps Porzingis plays anyone you should take him. He is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg and has that 40-plus upside on a nightly basis. The Bucks are allowing an incredible 24 ppg to power forwards on the season and I will be taking full of advantage of it by plugging in Porzingis. Sorry Snap, Crackle, and Pop. You had little mention today.

For right around the same price tag you can go with LaMarcus Aldridge if he is more to your liking. The Celtics are allowing 22.1 ppg to power forwards. He easily scores more than 25 fantasy ppg which sounds low but for the most part is his bottom floor. He has double-double potential and scores into the double-digits more often than not. I prefer the upside of Porzingis but Aldridge is an extremely safe play for cash games.

Over the last two games Terrence Jones has scored more than 50 fantasy points combined. The Kings are allowing the 28^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards and with Jones being red hot scoring nearly 20 ppg in the last two he seems hard to pass on tonight in a game that has huge scoring potential.

I love using Kevin Love. I often insert him into my lineup when I can afford him and watch my score go up. He has three double-doubles in the last five games and is averaging over 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 35 fantasy ppg. With the Heat allowing 21.1 ppg to power forwards Love becomes a viable cash and GPP play on the slate.

Marvin Williams has a nice price at $4,900 on FanDuel. What else is nice is that he has scored in the double-digits three times in the last four games with one double-double. Although the Bulls defend the PF position well they are still allowing over 20 ppg to it on the season. With Williams averaging over 23 fantasy ppg for under $5,000 I will have exposure to him tonight for sure.

Center

I am going to share with you what I feel is the best value of the day today and the guy I am playing at center even though he is actually playing in the four. Joakim Noah in the last two games since getting more than 25 minutes has scored 31.7 and 28.7 points on FanDuel. He is starting tonight at PF for the low price $4,400 facing a Hornets team allowing the 29^th most fantasy ppg to the PF position. How can you not use him?

We have a huge gap between my No. 1 play and No. 2 play at center. Dwight Howard has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in the last two and is coming off a nights rest. The Kings are allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to centers and Howard has had three double-doubles in the last four games. His price is more than fair at $7,800 on FanDuel and he is a great play in any format tonight.

If you really want to spend tonight then the guy to spend on at center is DeMarcus Cousins. The Houston Rockets are allowing the most fantasy ppg overall in the NBA, which I find inviting. With Cousins averaging over 27 points, 10 rebounds, and 45 fantasy ppg on the season he is a must play if you can afford him. To be honest, he was in my cash game lineup until I saw Noah was getting the start.

Well that is it for tonight. Good luck and I will be back on Monday.

Below is a photo of my research sheets from today. In case you were wondering how I do it.