NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: November 17, 2015

One of things in DFS we talk about is recency bias. This is when you fade a player because of a recent bad performance or take a player because of a recent good performance. The definition is: the tendency to think that trends and patterns we observe in the recent past will continue in the future. In DFS this is something to pay attention to because at times you can make accurate decisions on good times to fade or play a certain player using this. Why am I talking about this?

Last Saturday night in New York City, one of the players I had in my lineup was Brandon Knight. He put up 10 points, one rebound, and one steal for a huge dud of a night. Last night I told someone I don’t like him for one simple reason, recency bias. In my mind he stinks. As a result of this I passed on Knight last night in DFS. He scored 30 points, 10 rebounds, and 15 assists. The game of his life! The lesson is, even someone who is experienced can fall victim to the simple flaws every DFS player succumbs to. Trust your research. If the numbers are telling you everything is going to go one way, it usually does, or at least most of the time.

With a cat that will not leave me alone and laundry all around me on the kitchen table let’s do this. I am in the longest losing streak of the season having not cashed in three nights. I plan on changing that tonight. Let’s win some money.

Point Guard

In his last two games Stephen Curry has scored 46 points versus the Timberwolves on Thursday and 34 versus the Nets on Saturday. He is averaging over 33 points, five rebounds, and five assists per game and has the ability to get it done whenever he takes the court no matter the opponent. If you are going to spend up on a PG then Curry is the obvious choice.

One of the things I do when building my lineups is count in my head as I go what I think the player I am choosing will put up. My goal is always to try and build a team that adds up to 350 in my head with the hopes of breaking the 300-point mark in the real world. I find most nights you can cash in 50/50’s and double-ups if you put up at least 300 so this is always my main goal. If you do not want to spend up on the PG position I do not believe you have to have Curry to cash out in cash games tonight. There is plenty of value across the board.

The next PG I love tonight is Kyle Lowry. If you are not going to roster Curry tonight you should at least consider Lowry. In his last four games he has scored over 20 points each time with two near double-doubles. The Warriors are allowing the 21^st-most points to the PG position on the season and with Lowry averaging over 38 fantasy ppg he is hard to ignore.

One guy I will have for sure in my cash games tonight is Emmanuel Mudiay. I find the DEN-NO game to be a treasure trove of value tonight. New Orleans is a six-point favorite in a game with an expected point total of 206.5. With this being said I plan on taking advantage of this wherever possible. Mudiay is averaging over 12 points, six assists, and four rebounds per game and with the Pelicans allowing the most points in the NBA to the PG position I can’t see why it won’t continue.

For the low price of $6,400 on FanDuel Jarrett Jack is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg. For some reason I rarely use him. Why? I am not quite sure. He continues to produce. He has had two double-doubles in his last five games with one near miss and is coming off a 28-point and nine-assist performance on Saturday night versus the Warriors. If you want to fade the big guns you could have a good night pairing Mudiay and Jack in a GPP situation.

Jeff Teague is banged up and Dennis Schroder is starting. This is a great “value” play for $4,800 on FanDuel tonight. Not only is Schroder averaging over 20 fantasy ppg he put up 11 points, six rebounds, and nine assists on Sunday night versus the defensive minded Jazz. For the price on a night with some big guys you might want he is a great option to save a few bucks.

A few other guys who just missed the cut were Michael Carter-Williams, who I expect to see plenty of shots tonight facing a middle of the road Wizards defense, and Jrue Holiday, who is facing the Nuggets who are allowing the 22^nd-most points to the PG position in what I expect to be a high-scoring affair.

Shooting Guard

Eric Gordon tonight is facing the team allowing the most points to the SG position in the NBA…the Nuggets. Gordon is averaging over 27 fantasy ppg and over 19 in real life. I see no reason tonight in this game why he cannot get 35 tonight for the mid-price across the industry.

Giannis Antetokounmpo whose name is equally exhausting typing it as it is trying to say it is an absolute force on the court this season. He is averaging over 17 points and seven rebounds per game and over 31 fantasy ppg as well. If you can afford him tonight facing the Wizards, who are allowing the most points to the SF position (he is in the three in real life), then plug him in.

Dwyane Wade who is old enough to have watched the original "Land of the Lost" on TV when he was a kid is still kicking around the NBA. As a matter of fact he is still pretty good. He easily puts up double-digit points most nights and his price is under $7K on FanDuel. For the upside he makes a great GPP play tonight. I see no reason why he will not top his 29 fantasy ppg average tonight.

Another guy who I find it laboring to write about is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or KCP to the Layman. The problem with using the KCP moniker is as I type it I find myself getting really hungry and I am sad to say that restaurant is not available around here. I have to settle for the frozen kind that comes in the box. Oh, sorry I love food as much as basketball.

Pope is putting up great numbers on the season. In the last 11 games he has scored over 10 points 10 times. Not bad I say. If you want to save a few bucks go see the Pope for a possible 30 fantasy points tonight.

Now this guy is somewhat of a pit for me. I met a great kid at the DFS conference who worked for SiriusXM. We had a great conversation about Klay Thompson and how we both keep riding him in GPP waiting for his big game. At this point I have to because I refuse to not have him the night he busts out. Right now he is averaging over 24 fantasy ppg and has a great matchup tonight against the Raptors who are allowing the 20^th-most points to the SG position. He will be in my GPP lineup tonight.

Both Kyle Korver and Joe Johnson rank equally in my model tonight as possible plays. I would rank Korver slightly higher because of the huge difference in price but both make fine GPP plays that just missed the cut facing two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA to the SG position, each other.

Small Forward

The man whose ego is bigger than his dominance on the basketball court, or LeBron James as most know him, is clearly the top option on the board at the SF position and with good reason. Although he gets a bad matchup with Detroit allowing the third-fewest points to the SF position, most are not James. He gives up monster upside nightly and is averaging over 46 fantasy ppg. If you are going to spend up then who else at the position than him?

The man who I really love tonight (does that sound weird?) is Otto Porter. The Bucks are allowing the 20^th-most points to the SF position and Porter is dirt cheap across the industry. He has the upside to put up over 25 points and 10 rebounds on a great night and I am banking on that night being tonight as I will have him in all my cash games.

The other guy who popped up tonight with Kent Bazemore being ruled out is Thabo Sefolosha. He is averaging over six points and four rebounds in a hair over 20 minutes right now and gets the start for the near minimum tonight facing a Nets team allowing their fair share of points to the SF position. I will have exposure to him tonight for sure.

Half the nights he plays, Danilo Gallinari puts up over 20 points. For real, he has done it five times in the 10 games he has played with three of them just falling short of 20 and two stinkers (including last Saturday when I had him in my lineup for the DFS conference). He is averaging over 27 fantasy ppg and should reach the 30 mark tonight. A great play across the board.

Khris Middleton is playing at SG but FanDuel has him at SF which is fortunate for us as the Wizards are allowing the 28^th-most points to the SG position on the season. For a decent price and the great matchup he is a top-five play for sure and gets consideration for both cash and GPP play.

A few other guys who just missed today were Marcus Morris but a tough matchup in Cleveland just bumps him down enough and Harrison Barnes whose matchup just bumped him out as well, alongside the lack of upside he always seems to provide. Both of these guys are GPP playable.

Power Forward

Anthony Davis it is speculated will not be playing tonight. If he goes, he is my favorite play if you are going to spend up at the PF position. He scored 36 points with 11 rebounds Sunday night versus the Knicks and has more upside for his price in my opinion than Curry does tonight. If he goes I will have him.

*If Ryan Anderson starts in place of Anthony Davis he is a great play tonight in place of Davis for a great price.

Kevin Love is a great play every night. He is averaging over 17 points and 12 rebounds per game. The Pistons are allowing the 24^th-most points on the season to the PF position, making Love a top play for sure. I expect his 35 fantasy ppg average to climb tonight.

If you want to save a few bucks tonight we have several options. My favorite cheap play is Kristaps Porzingis, who for some reason reminds me of the three little elves Snap, Crackle, and Pop. I know it’s weird but what can I say? He has been impressive in his rookie season to say the least, averaging over 11 points and eight rebounds per night and over 24 fantasy ppg. For the price, facing a Charlotte team allowing the 26^th-most points to the PF position he makes a great play in all formats.

The Timberwolves are allowing the 21^st-most points to the PF position and tonight they get Chris Bosh. Miami is a nine-point favorite and for good reason, Bosh is averaging over 36 fantasy ppg and has scored over 20 points in the last 4-of-5 with three double-doubles and two near misses. The price is high but he can easily give you 40 fantasy points tonight.

Here is a really cheap option tonight if you want to take a risk. Kris Humphries scored 23 points with five rebounds, going 9-14 from the field on Saturday night versus the Magic. Tonight for the low price of $4,000 on FanDuel he is facing a Bucks team allowing the 23^rd-most points to the PF position. He could give you 25 tonight for peanuts. I will have limited exposure tonight for him at that price for sure.

The others who just missed today were Thaddeus Young who is averaging over 28 fantasy ppg for cheap against a subpar Hawks defense and J.J. Hickson, who is starting at center tonight for the Nuggets facing a New Orleans team allowing the 26^th-most points to the center position for peanuts across the industry.

Center

Although I am only using him in a GPP lineup tonight, bad matchup or not, Andre Drummond is the top play at the center position on the slate. He is averaging almost 20-20. That is absolute insanity and for that reason, with that upside, he is the big dog at center unless you can find another guy whose bark is louder than his bite.

Al Horford has scored in the double-digits while putting up decent numbers in assists and rebounds in every game this season. He has been consistent and tonight faces a Brooklyn team allowing the 23^rd-most points to the center position. He averages almost 35 fantasy ppg but I am adding him in at 45. I will be using him in cash games tonight.

On the other side is Brook Lopez who also gets a great matchup with the Hawks allowing the 28^th-most points to the position on the season. Lopez is averaging almost 35 fantasy ppg himself and should have a night as good as Horford.

*Horford only gets the bump due to the few hundred dollar savings in price.

I really would not go any lower tonight than Karl-Anthony Towns who is becoming one in a long line of NBA players using a "–" in their names. Can you imagine if everyone did that? It would drive me nuts calling everyone by two first names. Towns is averaging over 32 fantasy ppg right now and is averaging over 15 points and 10 rebounds per game. For the price he is a great option tonight.

If you are looking to go cheap, check out the situation between Festus Ezeli and Andrew Bogut as some points are to be found there facing the Raptors who are allowing the 22^nd-most points to the position. But spending up is still the way to go.

Well that is for me for today. I will be back tomorrow with the monster slate to break down the NBA action again. As always I will be back later and any questions hit me up on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73.