NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: November 16, 2015

So this weekend I went to New York City to compete in the first DFS player’s conference. What a great time. I got to hang out with some good friends and caught up with my boss here at Fantasy Alarm, Jeff Mans. It was catered to the fullest with all-you-can eat jumbo shrimp, crab legs, oysters, mac & cheese bar, chicken & waffle bar, desert bar with chocolate fountain, and open bar among other things. For a small time fellow from the backwoods of Western Massachusetts this whole scene was surreal. The hotel was massive looking over Times Square which I had never been to until this day.

It was a long day in which I got to spend an afternoon with one of my best friends Brian Ambos. We went, we competed, and finished in the middle of pack I am sad to say. But, keep in mind we were not playing your average fantasy players. These fellows are probably among the top 83 in the world. I guess my trip to the Playboy mansion will have to wait until next time. The truth is when you go to these things you hope to win but a live qualifier like this is about the experience. It is about meeting people in the industry and talking shop. And most important it is about making friends with similar interests. Just look at our message boards on the site here. We have a whole community of our own. Some days we are triumphant, some days we are not. But we are here because we all enjoy this and that has to count for something.

Above are a few photos from the conference I wanted to share with you loyal subscribers.

Now let’s try and win some money.

Point Guard

Do you ever feel like you repeat yourself over and over? I feel like almost every time when I write this article it starts off like this…Russell Westbrook continues to dominate the NBA at the PG position and I cannot imagine for the life of me why this trend will not continue tonight. In his last three games he has put up two triple-doubles while scoring over 20 points in each of his last five. Tonight he’s playing in a game where no one will take more shots than he will against the Grizzlies who are allowing the 23^rd-most points to the PG position. This makes it hard to not take him everywhere.

If you insist on being “that guy” who spreads the hoopla about value and how Westbrook is too expensive and blah, blah, blah, then I would not go any cheaper than Damian Lillard. Although both the Spurs and the Blazers both play at slower pace of games you can still count on some things being consistent. The biggest of these is Lillard putting up over 20 points tonight. He is averaging over 25 points and seven rebounds per night right now and almost 40 fantasy ppg. It will be hard to fit both him and Westbrook but in a GPP boom or bust lineup it could be done.

If you really want to be intelligent then get smart. Marcus Smart that is. Tonight the Celtics are battling the Houston Rockets (Go Celts!) in a game where the Celtics are five-point underdogs with a high expected point total of 209. This game is a bevy of value tonight and I plan on taking full advantage of it. Smart on Sunday night versus the Thunder scored 26 points with eight rebounds. Did I mention the Rockets are allowing the 24^th-most points to the PG position on the season? Smart is the low price on FanDuel of $5,300 and I will be using him tonight in my cash games for sure.

T.J. McConnell remains a great play in the right matchup if you are looking to save a few bucks. He consistently racks up assists and rebounds even though he does not score a lot. He is averaging nine ppg over the last two, which suggests he could be due for a double-double. He is averaging over 22 fantasy ppg so why would this not continue tonight versus a Mavericks defense in the bottom half versus the PG position?

I am not really hot on the Pacers-Bulls game tonight but there are a few guys worth at least taking a look at like George Hill. Hill is battling an illness so if you take him keep a close eye on whether he starts or not. This is one of my GPP plays where I'm using a gut feeling. In the last 10 games he scored in the double-digits eight times with four of them being 20 points or close to it. He is due for a good night. Why not tonight versus the Bulls who are allowing the 25^th-most points to the PG position?

Shooting Guard

James Harden started off a little slow if you call averaging over 28 points, six rebounds, and six assists slow. I do not. He has two double-doubles in his last five games with two near misses. He is averaging over 45 fantasy ppg and tonight is facing the Celtics who are allowing 22^nd-most points to the SG position. If you are spending up at SG then this is the guy.

If you do like Harden and want to save then Eric Bledsoe is the man. He is averaging 23 points, four rebounds, and six assists on the season and tonight he faces the Lakers who are the bottom of the barrel defensively. He is a guy I would strongly consider in both cash and GPP play tonight and try to fit in if at all possible.

I am loving me some Courtney Lee tonight. He is dirt cheap across industry and faces the 29^th-ranked Thunder defense versus the SG position. He has been quiet scoring-wise as of late but has had three games this season where he put up 15 points or more. If you can get 12 points, six rebounds, and three assists tonight for the price that is a victory. I am using him in my cash games.

I have to admit the SG position was tough today. The way I factor my lineups only gave me four plays tonight worth looking at. One is Jimmy Butler facing the Pacers. The Pacers are allowing the 23^rd-most points to the SG position on the season and Butler remains under $8,000 on FanDuel averaging 34.3 fantasy ppg. Butler has scored over 20 points with five rebounds or more three times in the last five games and if you can see why he won’t tonight then hit me up on Twitter.

Kobe Bryant when I was a Lakers fan was the man like Peyton Manning was to Colts fans, Tom Brady is to Pats fans, and Larry Bird is to Celtics fans. I find it sad to see him struggle because I remember the days of Kobe being on all of the SportsCenter highlights. Now it seems he spends most of the game panting with a towel around his neck while Metta World Peace tries to figure out how to not make his name look funny on his driver’s license. When Kobe plays he is scoring nearly 20 ppg with five or more rebounds in back-to-back games. FanDuel has him at SG tonight even though he is playing at SF versus a Phoenix team allowing the 26^th-most points to the SF position which really helps on a slate devoid of what I consider great plays.

Small Forward

I cannot find anyway tonight that if you are going to spend up at the SF position you cannot use Paul George. George has scored 26 points or more in six straight games with four of them being double-doubles with one near miss at a triple double. Tonight he is facing a Bulls team allowing the 25^th-most points to the SF position. If you can afford him you should play him. I plan on it.

I used Jae Crowder last night and he really let me down. He is one of those players you really should only use in great matchups. He does not have the Stephen Curry or Russell Westbrook skill to dominate everybody. That is why he is only $5,000 on FanDuel. He has good nights, he has bad nights. He is averaging over 10 points and five rebounds per game and tonight gets that good matchup facing a Rockets team allowing the 28^th-most points to the SF position on the season. I am going back to the well. Of course, I am bit bias.

The great thing about this position if you pass on George is they are all cheap. Trevor Ariza is averaging over 23 fantasy ppg and the Celtics are allowing the 21^st-most points to the SF position. He is putting up over 10 points and five rebounds on the season and gives you double-double potential where he has fallen just short more than once. I say he’s overdue and has a great shot tonight at getting his first.

Getting back to the OKC-MEM game, Jeff Green is a great option tonight off the bench. He has scored in the double-digits in two straight games while scoring 21 points with four rebounds, and three assists on Sunday night. Tonight he is facing an OKC team minus Kevin Durant and should feast off the bench if he does not draw the start all together.

Power Forward

We have a ton of options tonight at the PF position but my favorite is my man Jared Sullinger. Since coming into the starting role he has been a beast. He has three double-doubles in his last five games with the other two just missing. He is averaging over 10 points and nine rebounds per game and gets the Rockets who allowing the most points to the PF position on the young season. I am all in on Sully in cash games tonight.

If you want to spend up at the PF position take a look at Nerlens Noel tonight. He is averaging over 11 points and nine rebounds per game and made a mess of the Thunder on Friday night, scoring 13 points with 11 rebounds. He is averaging over 27 fantasy ppg and should easily achieve that tonight facing a Dallas team allowing the 28^th-most points to the position.

Serge Ibaka is a force every night. He scores in the double-digits with near double-digit rebounds. Last night he put up 16 points and 10 rebounds against the Celtics who defend the PF postion well (11^th). Tonight he should put up great numbers versus the Grizzlies who are allowing the 25^th-most points to the PF position. When you add in the fact he is putting up over 30 fantasy ppg he makes a fine play in cash and GPP.

The Lakers continue to defend in a horrible fashion. They are ranked from the one-to-five positions 18^th, 10^th, 24^th, 27^th, and 30^th. Pretty much everybody is in a good matchup when the Lakers come to town. Tonight this game has an expected point total of 207 with the Suns being 11.5 point favorites. Markieff Morris is battling a knee injury and remains a game time decision. If he starts he makes a fine play but the guy I like better either way is Jon Leuer. He is averaging 22.5 minutes over his last two games while scoring 17 points with 16 rebounds. Either way I expect limited time for Morris making Leuer a great value play and must play if he draws the start.

Dwight Powell is averaging over 20 minutes per game right now and with the whole Dallas team banged up he will see plenty more. He is averaging over 10 points and eight rebound per game and I expect him to score plenty tonight facing a Sixers team allowing the 29^th-most points to the PF position on the season. For the price I will have both cash game and GPP exposure to him.

Center

I continue to play the man they call Zaza Pachulia from Green Acres. Ok, he’s not from Green Acres but he does continue to be a source of great value. Tonight Pachulia is facing the Sixers who are allowing the 26th-most points to the center position and in my opinion has been the only player on the Mavericks' starting roster I will play anymore. The rest at this time are just dead to me. Too much variance in what you can expect. Pachulia is averaging over 26 fantasy ppg and 10 points and 10 rebounds per game in real life. It’s a player for under 6K who averages a double-double…what is not to love?

If you are going to spend up on the position it is hard to not love Jahlil Okafor. Saturday night he scored 21 points with 12 rebounds versus the Spurs and is averaging 17 points and seven rebounds per game. The upside is huge and if Dwight Howard is out he could be the top fantasy producer at the center position tonight.

Tim Duncan is still getting it done. He is averaging 11 points and eight rebounds per game and over 27 fantasy ppg. Tonight he is facing a Portland team who defends well against everyone but the center position where they are ranked 29^th.  He makes a fine play in either format.

Tyson Chandler is a guy you have to give some consideration to tonight. He is averaging over 22 fantasy ppg facing the team allowing the most points in the NBA to centers, the Lakers. He is averaging seven points and 11 rebounds per game and is also a fine play for cheap tonight.

A few other centers to look at depending on last minute start / sits are Clint Capela coming off a great game facing a horrible Celtics defense versus the center and Amir Johnson in an extreme boom or bust GPP that will be low owned in a great matchup.

That is it for today and as always I will be back later to check the message board and my Twitter account is active @GeraldColvin73.