NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: February 6, 2016

So I read a post on the Fantasy Alarm NBA DFS Optimal Lineups message board asking why I have not been running nightly leagues. Well here is the thing, I also read a post saying something to the effect that I pop in each night and invite you to a league to steal your money. First off, I have won a few of these leagues but I find that statement more insulting to the subscribers who play with me. You basically are saying they have no game which is total bullshit. The subscribers on our message boards are among the most knowledgeable and savvy DFS players around. So do not sell them short.

Second, I was running these leagues for $2 and $5 per night. Top three paid. So basically you are saying that even if I was some sort of DFS “Superman” and won three of those tournaments per week which I certainly did not, the amount of money up for grabs was so small it would make little difference in my income for my family of six and a cat. I was running these leagues as a fun way for all of us to interact with each other and see what kind of lineups we were putting together while making it a little more interesting by maybe winning a few bucks. Most nights the contests did not fill and we ended playing for free anyway which is fine by me.

If you are a regular reader of my articles then you already know that I am just an average guy. I have no Harvard degree, no industry clout, no luxuries of fancy hotels, and no desire to hurt the DFS industry in anyway. I love this thing. Regardless of whether or not I was writing articles, I would still be playing every day. Because I am a DFS player. And so are you.

If you would like these leagues to start up again leave your comments below. I also want to know if you want to play for money or for free. I miss these leagues and some of the interactions on Twitter we would have throughout the night. That is what DFS is about to me. The community. I do not need to steal money or put in 5,000 lineups into GPPs to be a part of that and neither do you. So if you are the guy who thinks I am trying to shark money from new players then pardon me but, “screw you”.

Sorry, I will always be me.

We have a great slate tonight with what has to be the game of the year with the Thunder playing at Golden State. This game has a high 230 expected point total and the Warriors are only eight-point favorites. So that is without a doubt the game to attack tonight and I plan on having exposure to both sides between my cash game and GPP lineups tonight.

So with my rant out of my system and Rated R typing behind me I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

This is not a night to try and save at the point guard position. The player I am rolling out first tonight is Russell Westbrook. Once again we have one of those situations where I feel you insert Westbrook and start building your cash game lineup around him. Westbrook has had three triple-doubles in a row and tonight faces a Warriors defense allowing 22.5 ppg and the 20^th most fantasy ppg on the season to the point guard position.

In a perfect world you would be able to pair Stephen Curry with Russell Westbrook in your lineups. At this time I cannot do it and come up with something I am comfortable rolling out in cash games but depending on what kind of value pops later this may be entirely possible. Curry had a monster game versus the Wizards on Wednesday night scoring 51 points and tonight he gets a Thunder team allowing 23 ppg and the 19^th most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season in a game with the highest expected point total I can remember. You really need at least one of these guys in your lineup tonight.

It really seems unlikely that Jimmy Butler (knee) plays tonight. If this is the case then the way to go is Derrick Rose if you want to try and safe a few bucks. Rose has been on fire as of late scoring over 30 fantasy ppg in three of his last five including going over 50 last night versus the Nuggets. If Butler sits he gets a huge boost in value and I will be on him in cash games. But in my opinion he is cash game viable regardless. The Timberwolves are allowing 23.4 ppg (third highest in NBA) and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season and I see no reason Rose does not shine tonight.

Although I rarely use Ricky Rubio he is hard to ignore tonight. Not only are the Bulls allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to points guards on the season but Rubio has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in three straight versus the Trail Blazers, Lakers, and Clippers who are all of similar merit. His price is fair on FanDuel at $6,900 and with all the big superstars at this position tonight to choose from he should be a nice low owned GPP play.

Both of these players are nice bargain basement “what if” options for tonight to insert in that boom or bust GPP lineup.

If Ish Smith (ankle) sits tonight then Isaiah Canaan becomes a nice punt play for the low price of $3,700 on FanDuel and the near minimum across the industry. He scored over 20 fantasy points last night versus the Wizards and over 70 fantasy points combined over the last three games. Tonight he faces a Nets team allowing 21.8 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. This savings could go a long way down the road while giving you some exposure to the nice 206 expected point total on this game.

I should punch myself in the face for saying this but who would roster Raul Neto? Maybe yours truly tonight in GPP play. In the last two games he has played more than 30 minutes he scored nearly 40 fantasy points combined. I know this sounds terrible but right now Trey Burke (illness) may sit tonight giving Neto plenty of minutes versus a Phoenix team allowing 24.3 ppg (highest in NBA) and the second most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. There is huge risk here but he is dirt cheap with a great matchup and plenty of possible minutes. You decide.

Shooting Guard

Joe Johnson is playing at SF but FanDuel has him at SG at this time. I played him last night in my cash games and hit gold as he scored over 50 fantasy points versus the Kings for a nice two game total of 90 fantasy points combined. The Nets-Sixers game is a treasure trove of fantasy value tonight and Johnson is among the elite plays from this game in my opinion. The Sixers are allowing 21.5 ppg (second highest in NBA) and the most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season. This game has a close line with Philadelphia being 1.5-point favorites which to be honest you have a better chance of seeing a spaceship than the Sixers favorites. I am loving me some Johnson tonight, oh boy.

The player I currently have rostered along with Johnson in my early cash game lineup is Klay Thompson. Once again it is key to take advantage of any game with an expected point total this high especially in cash games. Thompson is averaging nearly 30 fantasy ppg and tonight faces a Thunder team that is allowing 21.9 ppg and the 21^st most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. Thompson has a nice price at $7,100 on FanDuel tonight for a shooting guard who can score 40 fantasy points when he gets hot.

Although Andrew Wiggins is a great play tonight for the price I would rather roster Zach LaVine. The Timberwolves are three-point favorites tonight versus the Bulls in a game with a nice 205 expected point total. LaVine off the bench has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in seven straight going over 30 versus Cleveland on Jan. 25 and hitting the 40 mark versus the Thunder on Jan. 27. The Bulls are allowing the 17^th most fantasy ppg on the season to shooting guards and the 25^th most since E’Twaun Moore started playing in the two. LaVine has a nice low price and savings are a must tonight.

I love a few of the players on the Utah side of things tonight (insert foot in mouth once again) and Rodney Hood is one of them. He has a great matchup with the Suns allowing 21.7 ppg and the fourth most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. Hood is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg over the last six going over the 30 mark three times. His price is fair and he is a nice safe cash game play tonight who can get you over 30 fantasy points.

Like earlier stated the Nets-Sixers game is a fantasy cash register for value tonight. One of the players to take a serious look at in a boom or bust GPP is Nik Stauskas. The Nets are allowing 21.9 ppg and the 20^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season so the matchup is right. The problem is Stauskss. Inconsistency is the theme here as he will either get you 25 fantasy points or nine fantasy points. The risk you take for the near minimum salary.

Small Forward

If you can afford him tonight, and believe me when I tell you I will be trying like hell myself, the small forward to pay for is Kevin Durant. Maybe it's just me but for some reason when I take Westbrook I usually find a way to get Durant. Much in the same way in the NFL that when I roster Tom Brady I also roster Rob Gronkowski. The Westbrook-Durant combo on most nights will get you over 100 fantasy points which of course is much aided by the fact that Durant has scored over 50 fantasy points in four of his last six games. I am still working things but I fully plan on having him in my cash game lineup tonight.

If by some chance I fail in my task tonight to fit both Durant and Westbrook then the player I will pivot to is Gordon Hayward. Hayward has scored over 30 fantasy points now in seven of his last 10 games going over the 50 mark twice versus Charlotte and Chicago. He has failed to hit 25 fantasy points now in two straight games and in a fickle DFS world this usually causes the inexperienced to move off of a player. But not me, with Phoenix allowing the second most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season I expect Hayward to have a nice bounce-back game tonight.

Stanley Johnson right now is starting and if this continues he is a nice value at $4,600 on FanDuel tonight and is fair priced across the industry. The matchup is just in his favor with the Pacers allowing the 19^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards where Johnson is playing. The benefit of having a shooting guard in the small forward slot is the 21.4 ppg the Pacers are allowing to the two on the season would be the fourth highest by small forward standards. Catch my drift? Just make sure he starts.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is averaging over 30 minutes per night with ease right now and is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg in his last four. He has been regressing slightly but tonight gets a great matchup with the Wizards allowing 22.1 ppg (highest in NBA) and the second most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season. Great player + great matchup = great fantasy numbers. On most nights.

In a boom or bust GPP I would consider using Harrison Barnes. He has put up a few stinkers now scoring 11.7 and 17.1 fantasy points on FanDuel in the last two versus the Knicks and Wizards. Prior to these last two games Barnes had scored over 20 fantasy points in four of his last five hitting the 25 mark twice. The matchup is not great with the Thunder allowing the eighth fewest fantasy ppg to small forwards. All of these spell low ownership but this is exactly the kind of guy tonight when checking other lineups you see and get mad because you did not take him which is why he will be in my GPP lineup.

Power Forward

Draymond Green is the top play tonight at the power forward position tonight and if you wanted to spend up for him in this game I certainly could not blame you. Green has scored over 50 fantasy points in back-to-back games putting up yet two more triple-doubles. His price is $9,200 on FanDuel which I feel is more than fair considering you have a legit shot at 5X value with him tonight. The matchup could be better with the Thunder allowing the fourth fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season but not every power forward is Draymond Green.

I myself am going cheap tonight at the four to spend up elsewhere. I just feel I will get better numbers out of the Westbrook-Durant combo over the Curry-Green combo. For this reason the player I am using right now in my early cash game lineup is Tristan Thompson. I know his upside is limited but the minutes should be there tonight if Kevin Love sits. This game has a high 209 expected point total and the Pelicans are allowing 21.4 ppg and the most fantasy ppg to centers on the season where Thompson is playing. His price is low at $4,600 on FanDuel and he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in seven of his last ten games going over the 30 mark on Jan. 25 versus the Timberwolves. If Love plays I will pivot elsewhere.

Nerlens Noel tonight finds himself in a position to win some DFS owner a boat load of cash. The Nets are allowing 20.6 ppg and the 20^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season. Noel has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in three of his last five games and he is a player who can get you 30 fantasy points with ease in a good matchup for a fair price.

The other player around the same price as Noel who is a fine option is good old Thaddeus Young. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in four of his last five hitting the 40 mark last night versus the Kings where he put up a double-double, something he has done now in back-to-back games. The Sixers are allowing 21.8 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season and he is a great cash game play tonight.

You could make an argument tonight to take either Myles Turner or Lavoy Allen for the Pacers.

Turner since getting some decent playing time has been almost a nightly DFS play for everyone. His ownership one night last week were over 90 percent in a 100-man 50/50 league I was in. The Pistons are just over the line allowing the 19^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season and Turner has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in 10 straight going over the 30 point mark five times with two of them going over 40. His price at $5,600 on FanDuel seems more than fair for a player of his recent pedigree.

Lavoy Allen is the boom or bust GPP tonight at the power forward spot for me. His price is near minimum across the industry and he averaging over 25 fantasy ppg in the last three. I am not confident enough to use him in cash games but in my GPP lineup tonight he will get my call. How sneaky would it be to do Turner-Allen combo for $9,500 on FanDuel and hope they go off for a combined 60-to-70 fantasy points?

Center

Much like the “Highlander” series that used to be on TV there can be only one. By this I mean I would only spend up for one center tonight and that guy is Brook Lopez. He has scored over 40 fantasy in six of his last 10 games going over the 50 mark three times versus the Raptors, Mavericks, and Pelicans. Lopez also has seven double-doubles in this span and tonight faces a Sixers team allowing 21.3 ppg and the most fantasy ppg to centers on the season.

Gorgui Dieng is the other player who scores high in my model tonight. Dieng is averaging well over 30 fantasy ppg in his last five and tonight faces a Bulls team allowing 20 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg to centers on the season and is the player I plan on using in my cash game lineup tonight. Some might be off of him a bit after his last performance putting up less than 20 fantasy points.

Last but not least I just want to say for a GPP tonight doesn’t it feel like Enes Kanter is due for a big game? Just a hunch. Play at your own risk. If it helps the Warriors are allowing the 17^th most fantasy ppg to centers on the season which could be better. Like I said, a hunch.