NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: February 5, 2016

Friday feels like a pretty typical slate. Shooting guard is kind of ugly. Center is surprisingly deep. The other positions are mostly a mixed bag. As has also been the case lately, there are a few critical players who will be game-time decisions, and a lot of fantasy value will hinge on those calls. Be sure to check FantasyAlarm leading up to game time for the latest news so you can make any last-minute adjustments.

Point Guard

While it is tempting to either spend a ton or go super cheap at point guard, I think I will mostly be in the middle, especially for tournament lineups. The mid-priced point guards may not be particularly safe, but I love their matchups and upside.

With Pau Gasol and Jimmy Butler both questionable, Derrick Rose could take a ton of shots Friday. He probably won’t be terribly efficient, and turnovers could be an issue, but Rose had 21 points, nine assists and six rebounds with Butler out Wednesday. Rose is a nice play if Butler is out and a near must play if Butler and Gasol both are out.

Trying to guess which Brooklyn point guard will have a good game on any given day is often an exercise in futility, but the upside Friday is higher than usual if you guess right. Donald Sloan gets the slight edge, but Shane Larkin is a fine alternative if you need to save $300 on FanDuel or DraftKings.

The Wizards and 76ers both rank in the top six in the NBA in pace and opponent’s points, but both teams are so deep, or devoid of talent, that it is difficult to find many guys worth playing. John Wall is clearly the best player in this game, and the one in the best position to take advantage of a Philadelphia team that ranks in the top seven in opponent’s points, steals, assists and rebounds. I suspect Chris Paul will be in more lineups, but John Wall is worth the extra money.

I really wanted to find a way to recommend Robert Covington, Isaiah Canaan or Nik Stauskas because only the Kings and Suns have allowed more opponent’s threes than the Wizards this season, but I just can’t. None of them are likely to play 30 minutes, and they could each make two threes and finish with fewer than 12 points. Instead, I’m going with the guy who will likely get the assists on many of those threes. Many of the top point guards are dealing with nagging injuries or tough matchups, and Smith is a solid alternative to Derrick Rose if Jimmy Butler plays.

Shooting Guard

As is often the case, shooting guard is pretty ugly Friday. The best players are off or injured, and there aren’t a whole lot of matchups to get excited about, either. I’m not necessarily going super-cheap at shooting guard, but there is no doubt most of your salary money will be spent elsewhere.

E’Twaun Moore had 24 points, five rebounds, four assists and two steals with Jimmy Butler out Wednesday, and Moore is a decent bet at double-digit points if Butler sits Friday. Moore has started the last three games, averaging 25.7 fantasy points on DraftKings. Moore is still super cheap on FantasyFeud, and could be worth playing there even if Butler returns.

Gary Harris and Will Barton are kind of like a rich man’s version of Donald Sloan and Shane Larkin. Harris and Barton have mostly taken turns having nice games the last two weeks, but there is no doubt the Denver duo is safer. Harris has at least 11 points in five of his last seven games, and he should hit that number again if he is matched up with E’Twaun Moore for most of the game. Harris is safer than Will Barton and much cheaper.

The Atlanta Hawks have mostly shut down Paul George this season, which has allowed Monta Ellis to go off. Ellis is averaging 25.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 3.5 steals in two games against the Hawks this season. In his last five games, Ellis is averaging 36.9 fantasy points on DraftKings.

Jae Crowder is a game-time decision, and I expect Evan Turner and Jonas Jerebko to split his minutes if Crowder is out. Turner has played at least 30 minutes in 13 games this season, and he had at least 10 points in every one of those games.

It is always risky to assume any one player will benefit when a Spur goes down with an injury, but I have to imagine Danny Green will play at least 30 minutes with Manu Ginobili out Friday. Green is 18-for-36 from beyond the arc in his last six games, and he could easily have a big game if he stays hot. Green has a bit more upside than E’Twaun Moore or Gary Harris, and he is a nice value on FanDuel.

Small Forward

Small Forward is kind of weird for Friday’s slate. I’m pretty sure this is my first time recommending any of these particular small forwards, while the usual suspects all have pretty terrible matchups.

This is probably your last chance to play Michael Kidd-Gilchrist before he is properly priced. He is averaging 14.3 points and 10.7 rebounds in his three games back. Kidd-Gilchrist is averaging nearly as many fantasy points as teammate Nicolas Batum, but Batum costs more on FanDuel and DraftKings. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is simply underpriced on DraftKings.

If Jimmy Butler is out, Danilo Gallinari will likely match up with Tony Snell, Doug McDermott or Bobby Portis. He should be able to score at will against any of those players.

Jonas Jerebko is far riskier than Evan Turner, but he could play 25 minutes at a near minimum price, and that has value. Jerebko had 12 points and 10 rebounds in 22 minutes against the Magic a week ago, and similar production wouldn’t be shocking if Jae Crowder is out Friday.

The Celtics have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season, and I don’t know how they can slow down LeBron James if Jae Crowder is out. The Celtics lead the NBA in opponent’s free throw attempts, and LeBron is averaging 6.9 free throw attempts per game this season. James is the clear play if you want to spend big at forward, especially if Crowder sits.

Power Forward

With so many teams going smaller, it is perfectly reasonable in some cases to play two power forwards from the same team in the same lineup. I’m not necessarily going out of my way to do it, but I have no problem if you want both Chicago or Cleveland power forwards in the same lineup.

Taj Gibson will almost certainly play 40-plus minutes if Pau Gasol cannot play Friday. In the two games Gibson topped 40 minutes this season, he averaged 10.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, 2.5 blocks and 2.0 assists. The Nuggets have been blocked more than any team this season, and Gibson is averaging 1.6 blocks over the last two weeks.

Bobby Portis would be an even better play with Gasol out, as Portis would likely see more than 30 minutes. Portis’s career-high in minutes is 30, and he had 16 points and 10 rebounds in that game.

Only the 76ers have allowed more fantasy points to opposing power forwards than the Bucks this season. In his five games since returning from back spasms, Derrick Favors has averaged 15.0 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.2 blocks.

Kevin Love’s usage since Tyronn Lue took over has grabbed all of the headlines, but both he and Tristan Thompson are averaging more than 33 minutes over the last six games. Only the Lakers and Bulls have allowed more opponents’ rebounds than the Celtics this season, and both Cleveland bigs could post double-doubles.

Center

Center may be the easiest position to fill Friday, and that is starting to become a trend. Rather than scraping to try to find one center, I often find myself using a center in my flex position. That will likely be the case Friday as well.

Nikola Jokic is averaging 35.7 fantasy points on DraftKings over his last six games, which is exactly what DeAndre Jordan has averaged for the season. The Bulls have struggled against opposing bigs all season, and that doesn’t figure to change if they have to give Cristiano Felicio significant minutes. This is probably your last chance to use Jokic before his price becomes too prohibitive.

The Brooklyn Nets have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season, and third-most to opposing power forwards. No matter where he plays, or is eligible, DeMarcus Cousins should have a nice night. Cousins had 40 points and 13 rebounds in his only game against the Nets despite fouling out in 35 minutes. Cousins is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the bigs going Friday, especially if Pau Gasol sits.

Marcin Gortat has six double-doubles in his last nine games, and I like his chances of making it seven out of 10. The 76ers are second in opponent’s blocks and fifth in opponent’s rebounds. Gortat’s upside may be limited, but he is one of the safest centers going Friday.

Myles Turner is cheaper than Nikola Jokic on FanDuel and FantasyFeud, and while I would rather pay up for Jokic, there is still a lot to like about Turner. I wish he was a bit more reliable on the glass, but the Hawks have allowed more than five blocks per game this season and Turner is averaging 2.9 blocks per game over the last two weeks.