NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: February 3, 2016

Although I have put out some good plays the last few days I have thrown out a few stinkers as well. The result? A two night losing streak for yours truly. The best part about playing DFS is this simple truth, today is a new day. I just need to remind myself this at 11 p.m. when I realize my DFS day is over and all hope is lost. I am such a sore loser.

So tonight we have a giant 11-game slate with more "what ifs" than a Sherlock Holmes novel. With possible value everywhere and some great matchups you can expect some soaring point totals tonight and really high cash lines. As always on these giant slates I will play lighter than usual.

So with a new day upon us, a three-year-old asking me questions every three seconds, "The Adventures of Puss & Boots" playing in the background, and the rain pinging off my window here in lovely Western Massachusetts, I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

The point guard position tonight is loaded and unless a giant possible value play I will mention later pops I will be loading up at this position tonight. We have enough value at other positions to be afforded this luxury and I plan on taking full advantage of it in cash games.

The player I really feel you should be building your cash game lineup around tonight is Russell Westbrook. I mean realistically what else does the guy have to do? Westbrook has scored more than 50 fantasy ppg in five of his last 10 games including four triple-doubles with two of them coming back-to-back in his last two. The Orlando Magic are just over the marginal line allowing the 19th most fantasy ppg to the point guard position and this game has a high 211.5 expected point total. Need I say more?

Either of the next two guys are great options to pair with Westbrook tonight to dominate this position.

John Wall tonight is facing Golden State as 10-point underdogs in a game with a ridiculous 225 expected point total. Wall is averaging over 40 fantasy ppg and has 50 fantasy point upside we are hoping for. The Warriors are allowing 22.2 ppg to the point guard position and I see no way Curry doesn’t hit a Wall tonight.

Chris Paul is the other option to pair with Westbrook tonight that I recommend. With Blake Griffin more than likely signing up for anger management classes Paul is without a doubt the big dog on the Clippers. The Timberwolves are allowing 23.3 ppg (third highest in NBA) and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season which is a nice matchup. One thing to be aware of is the Clippers are 11-point favorites so we do have a little bit of a blowout risk here but, to be honest, I am not concerned about it. I say Paul puts up at least 45 fantasy points tonight which he has done four times in the last 10 games all versus tougher defenses.

If you want to spend up elsewhere then you will have to combine a cheaper point guard with Westbrook. Jeff Teague has been playing incredible basketball lately scoring 50 fantasy points on FanDuel versus the Mavericks Monday night. Tonight, Teague gets to pick on a Sixers team that has been better as of late but is still allowing the 20^th most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. This game has a decent 207 expected point total and I would not be surprised tonight if Teague accounted for 25 of them.

The Pacers-Brooklyn game is a bevy of fantasy value tonight on the Indiana side. George Hill is that guy who always starts off hot but for some reason by the end of the game he only has around 25 fantasy points. I really hate that. The reality is he is averaging almost 30 fantasy ppg over this last three and tonight gets a prime matchup with Brooklyn allowing 21.6 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. I actually prefer him slightly over Teague but both are cash game viable.

If Gollum, or Rajon Rondo (who has been quiet in my articles as of late) sits tonight with turf toe than I will without a doubt be moving to Darren Collison in my cash games along with Westbrook. With both Rondo and DeMarcus Cousins questionable it has a 213 expected point total. The Bulls are allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to the point guard position and if Rondo sits you can get 35 fantasy points here for the low price of $4,500 on FanDuel. Collison is averaging almost 30 fantasy ppg in the last three games he has played over 28 minutes and all three were facing tougher matchups than he has tonight. I hope Gollum takes the day off. Really, I do.

Shooting Guard

Has anyone noticed with the subsequent end of the NFL season that FanDuel is staying on top of positional changes in the NBA on the site? It seems nowadays I do not have to use phrases like, “he is playing at SG even though FanDuel has him at SF” anymore. Just saying.

The first player I inserted into my early cash game lineup was Jimmy Butler. Lately he is playing at SF but FanDuel has him at SG (please read above) which really makes zero difference. Butler is averaging nearly 40 fantasy ppg over his last six games and tonight is facing a Kings team in serious question who is already allowing 20.6 ppg and the 21^st most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season. The Butler's price is high but that is the cost of great service.

Next up on our trip through the world of NBA shooting guards is my one of my favorite NBA players to watch in the form of Klay Thompson. Let’s face the facts about Thompson and take a look at his numbers. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg now in five of his last 10 games going over 50 versus the Mavericks on Jan. 27. Over his last three games versus the Mavericks, Sixers, and Knicks he has scored 55.5, 33.9, and 37.2 fantasy points on FanDuel respectively. The Wizards are allowing 21.1 ppg and the fifth most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season and his price is low at $7,100 and similar across the rest of the industry. If you can pair him with Butler go for it but I at this time have been unable to perform that task and still get a lineup I can stand to look at. They both are top plays but Butler gets the edge tonight in my book due to volume of minutes.

If all works out tonight and Ben McLemore sits and Marco Belinelli gets the start, then for the low price of $3,800 on FanDuel I am plugging him in. In his last start versus the Bucks on Monday night he played 36 minutes on a short-handed Kings roster scoring over 30 fantasy points. It could get even better tonight if Ben McLemore (wrist), Rajon Rondo (toe), and DeMarcus Cousins (ankle) all sit. Keep a close eye on this and make no mistake about it, I really hope all this happens. Keep in mind the Bulls are allowing 16.2 ppg (the lowest in NBA) to the shooting guard position but that was facing Butler how he handles E’Twaun Moore is an entirely different story with an ending we will have to wait for.

Getting back to the Pacers-Nets game as previously mentioned is a bevy of fantasy gold tonight. Who better to strike at rich with than Monta Ellis? He has scored over 125 fantasy points on FanDuel in the last three games. No, that is not a typo. His price I am sad to say is up to $6,900 as a result but he has scored over 50 fantasy ppg in two-of-three and tonight faces a Nets team allowing 22.1 ppg and the 21^st most fantasy ppg to the two. The matchup is right but the question is, do you take him over Klay? I myself just cannot do it. Also, you could consider if it all aligns that way pairing him and Thompson together and fading Butler. The only problem is you are counting on Ellis giving you 40 fantasy points something he has only done twice in the last 10 games telling me this recent upside will not sustain.

Rodney Hood has a price tag across the industry I find a real value for his recent fantasy production. He is averaging well over 30 fantasy ppg over his last six and tonight faces a Nuggets team allowing 21.3 ppg and the second most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. If I have any exposure to this Nuggets-Jazz game tonight than Hood will be the guy I use but with so many games with high expected point totals this game loses a lot of value.

Being we have so many big dollar players on the board you will be forced to find some value. The cheaper the better. If you want to take a risk than Wayne Ellington is playing over 30 minutes most nights and has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in three of his last five games. His price is only $3,900 on FanDuel so you only need 20 fantasy points to hit that desired 5X value. The Pacers are allowing the 19^th most fantasy ppg on the season which could be better but hey, you cannot always have your cake and eat it to.

Small Forward

So my three-year-old is in one of those modes where she refuses to take a nap. She is getting to that age where soon the nappy time will be ending. The funny thing is I turned on Netflix and put on the Disney film "Fantasia." Now I find myself typing in rhythm with the orchestra music playing in the background.

Usually when I use Russell Westbrook I also use Kevin Durant. I just love that combo in my lineup and most nights you end up with more than 100 fantasy points between them. Defensively, Orlando is just over the line allowing the 19^th most fantasy ppg and Durant is averaging over 50 fantasy ppg in his last five. I believe you need at least one stud small forward tonight with a lot cheaper firepower available at other positions and Durant certainly is the best.

I hate taking LeBron James. I feel like every time I take him Cleveland gets a 20-point lead and I watch him sit on the bench with a towel around his neck clapping while some player who is less than three percent owned rains threes upon the competition. Well, with most of the lines tonight hovering on borderline blowout to major blowout Cleveland being only eight-point favorites is not a bad option. Tonight, James gets a Charlotte defense minus Kemba Walker who are allowing 19.5 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to the small forward position on the season. If you fade Durant jump on the King.

You know who has the best defensive matchup for Dallas tonight as far as fantasy ppg goes? I will give you one hint, he is a small forward. If you guessed Chandler Parsons you have won absolutely nothing. Sorry, I am broke. Parsons in his last eight games has scored over 30 fantasy ppg seven times going over the 40 mark twice. Once again we have a great player who could have a better matchup with Miami allowing the 17^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards but most are not Parsons. With not a lot in the way of reliable 30 fantasy point options on the slate for this position Parsons sure is a cheaper way to get one.

Evan Turner seems to be making my position coach article quite a bit lately. Being a Celtics fan it sucks that the forward positions are always shaky ground when dealing with Brad Stevens. You never know what the hell he is going to do. For a week straight, a player will get 30 minutes or more per game and then for no reason at all, and I mean absolutely no reason, it just stops. Dead in the water. Eighteen minutes per game for a week (maybe a slight exaggeration). Well, Turner has been graced with the ability to charm the minutes out of Stevens as he is getting more than 25 most nights off the bench. In seven of his last eight games he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg going over 30 twice versus the Magic and Knicks. It is hard to pinpoint who he will draw defensively but for $5,200 on FanDuel you could get 30 fantasy points cheap.

Harrison Barnes is kind of a hit or miss player but he is playing 30 minutes per night and has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in six of his last 10. I cannot think of a better matchup for him than tonight with Washington allowing 22.3 ppg (most in the NBA) and the most fantasy ppg as well to small forwards on the season. His price is bargain basement and he is a great way to gain some cheap exposure to that 225 expected point total. I have him with Durant in my early cash game lineup right now.

Power Forward

The word is, DeMarcus Cousins might be playing tonight but regardless I will be fading him for the time being.

If you are going to spend up at the power forward position tonight and, to be honest, I will not be in cash games then Draymond Green is where to do it. The matchup is not great with Washington allowing the eighth fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season but once again they do not play Draymond Green on a daily basis. Great players overcome bad matchups and that is exactly what will happen here tonight. Green scored over 50 fantasy points versus the Knicks on Sunday and I see no reason he cannot do it again tonight. If you can afford him he certainly is always a great play.

The other top option tonight is Kevin Love. He had a little spell of bad fantasy production for a few games where he was only scoring in the 20 fantasy point range but he has pulled it back together averaging over 40 fantasy ppg in the last four. The Hornets are allowing 20.6 ppg (right beside the Bulls) and the 26^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards so he has the matchup. His price on FanDuel is only $7,700 which I find quite a bargain for a player who can get you 40 fantasy points.

Here is an easy one. Put Myles Turner in your lineup. His price is low at $5,500 on FanDuel for a player who has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in five of his last eight going over the 40 fantasy point mark on two occasions. The Nets are allowing 20.7 ppg and the 20^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season which I believe gives you a free square because Turner should be close to 100 percent owned in cash games tonight.

Depending on what value pops I will either pair Kevin Love with Myles Turner or Taj Gibson. Gibson tonight is facing a Kings team that is allowing 20.1 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season. He also has scored over 30 fantasy ppg three times in his last five and he certainly is a player who can do it again tonight for the low price of $5,300 on FanDuel.

You know who is quietly putting up big numbers for peanuts at the power forward position? Marvin Williams. Yes, I said Marvin Williams. In the last six games Williams has scored 35.8, 18.4, 34.5, 17.5, 33.8, and 44.2 fantasy points on FanDuel versus the Magic, Knicks, Kings, Jazz, Trail Blazers, and Lakers. So basically he has had two bad games fantasy-wise as of late. If you wanted to take a stab at a player in a GPP that should be drowned out tonight with the other value on the slate here is the guy.

Center

It really seems that as of late, spending up at center is a detriment to your lineup construction in comparison to the slate at hand. In my opinion, there is no center on the slate worth spending up over a Westbrook, Durant, or even a Chandler Parsons. We have enormous value at this position and I can tell you right off the bat the guy I am rolling out tonight in my cash game lineups is Jordan Hill.

Hill in his last two games has scored over 75 fantasy points combined versus the Nuggets and a tough Cleveland defense allowing the fewest fantasy ppg to centers. Not bad eh? I am merely pointing out that if he put up over 30 fantasy points versus the Cavs than tonight facing a Nets team allowing 22.1 ppg (second highest in NBA) and the 25^th most fantasy ppg he should have a great night. His price on FanDuel is only $4,700 and he is reasonably priced across the industry. He is as close a thing to a must play as there is if there ever was one.

144 is the number of fantasy points Gorgui Dieng has scored in the last four games on FanDuel. His price is more than under value at $5,500. The Clippers are allowing 22.2 ppg (the highest in the NBA) and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to centers on the season. It certainly does not take a math whiz or a DFS expert to see this is a great play. The $800 price tag is all that keeps Dieng below Hill tonight.

If you are that one guy that despite being handed play after play insists on spending up tonight at this position then the only player I would consider is Pau Gasol. This game has a high 213 expected point total and close line with the Kings being two point favorites. Gasol has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in six straight games going over the 40 mark three of them putting up 48 fantasy points on FanDuel versus that very same tough Cleveland defense (kind of makes you wonder about Cleveland). The Kings are allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to centers on the season which certainly is a nice matchup.

Mark Kaplan and myself will be hosting a live chat on the site tonight at 6 p.m. EST. Good luck.