NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: February 1, 2016

Monday could be a pretty low-scoring slate, as nine of the 11 slowest teams in the NBA tip off. With only nine games on the slate, there aren’t a whole lot of attractive games to target. The deepest position on the slate may actually be center, so I am probably filling that position last, especially on FanDuel.

Point Guard

There are a lot of solid point guard options Monday, but Reggie Jackson and J.J. Barea stand out above the rest.

The Nets have allowed the highest effective field goal percentage in the NBA to the ball handler on pick and rolls. Reggie Jackson has run 99 more pick and rolls than anybody in the NBA, and he went for 23 points and eight assists against the Nets just three weeks ago.

Devin Harris has missed four consecutive games, and J.J. Barea is averaging 13.8 points, 2.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists in those games. His price has risen accordingly, but he is still a solid cash game play with Harris out.

It is embarrassing to root for a team whose players lobbied for E’Twaun Moore to start, but here we are. The Bulls lost the two games Moore started by a combined 50 points, so the experiment could be over soon, but he is a useful DFS play so long as his minutes are high and his price is low. Moore is averaging nine points and three assists as a starter, and that is worth something, albeit not a whole lot.

The Kings have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards, and Michael Carter-Williams is averaging 10.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.5 steals in 30.7 minutes over the last two weeks. This should be a fast-paced, high-scoring contest, and that would benefit Carter-Williams.

Emmanuel Mudiay has at least 10 points and four assists in nine consecutive games, and his playing time is pretty well assured with Jameer Nelson doubtful for Monday. Mudiay’s upside is limited by his poor shooting and turnovers, but he is a solid contributor and reasonably priced.

Speaking of Mudiay’s turnovers, Kyle Lowry stands to benefit if he can convert those turnovers into steals and fastbreaks going the other way.

Shooting Guard

Shooting guard is usually a good place to save money, and Monday is no exception. If you are looking to spend up, look at Khris Middleton. Only the Wizards are allowing more fantasy points to opposing shooting guards than the Kings, and Middleton is averaging 19.0 points per game on two days of rest. Middleton scored just nine points Friday, and every time he has scored in single digits this season he has scored at least 16 points his next time out. Middleton is far safer than teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Marco Belinelli has a chance to play more with Ben McLemore questionable, and at the very least Belinelli is a tournament play for his ability to get hot and knock down a few threes. The Bucks are fifth in the NBA in opponent’s threes, and Belinelli would be Sacramento’s only true long range threat if McLemore is out.

Gary Harris has at least 13 points in four of his last five games, and he is a safer alternative if you can’t bring yourself to play E’Twaun Moore or Marco Belinelli.

Bryce Dejean-Jones has averaged 11 points and 5.5 rebounds with Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans out the last two games. He isn’t anything special, but he should continue to provide nice value so long as Evans is out.

Small Forward

You have to spend money somewhere, and I will probably spend it at small forward. Kevin Durant has outscored Russell Westbrook for fantasy over the last two weeks, but Westbrook still costs more and plays a position that is easier to fill, at least in Monday’s slate. Durant has scored at least 20 points in 30 consecutive games and is extremely safe for cash games.

Jeff Green is playing out of his mind right now, averaging 26.7 points and 5.0 rebounds over his last three games. With those kind of numbers, you could argue he is a better DFS play if Marc Gasol plays, but there is little doubt Green would at least see increased playing time with Gasol out. Green is a solid play on a day where small forward is pretty ugly.

The Kings have allowed more opponent’s points than any team this season, and somebody on Milwaukee is going to score besides Khris Middleton. Giannis Antetokounmpo is as capable of having a big game as any power forward, and he is nice alternative if you can’t afford Kevin Durant but don’t want to settle for Jeff Green.

Rudy Gay may be a popular play if DeMarcus Cousins is out, but his numbers are actually much better when Cousins plays. The Bucks have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards, and Gay is always capable of going off for 30 points.

Power Forward

Power forward may be the least exciting position on the slate. There are a lot of solid options, but nobody to write home about. Myles Turner has averaged nearly as many fantasy points as Rudy Gobert over the last five games, and Turner is much cheaper. Playing time should no longer be a problem after Turner played 40 minutes Saturday, especially with Ian Mahinmi out again.

Zach Randolph is averaging 17.3 points and 10.1 rebounds per 36 minutes, and he is a decent bet to play 36 minutes if Marc Gasol is out. Unlike Jeff Green, Randolph is really only useful for DFS with Gasol out.

Kevin Love is averaging 19.2 points per game since Tyrann Lue’s coup d’état, and you should take advantage now before his price goes up. 

The Mavericks do not have anyone on the roster who can match up with Paul Millsap, and I am quite interested to see how they attempt to defend him. Millsap is extremely safe and has an excellent chance to lead power forwards in fantasy points Monday.

Center

I’m almost certainly playing more than one center in my DraftKings and FantasyFeud lineups. There are a lot of players to like, especially if some injuries break right, but Rudy Gobert stands out as a particularly attractive play. The Bulls allowed DeAndre Jordan to score rack up 17 points, 20 rebounds and four blocks, and Gobert could flirt with that kind of production Monday. Gobert has pulled down at least 12 rebounds in three consecutive games.

Could I interest you in a center who costs $3,500 on FanDuel and DraftKings and is averaging 11.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks? Those are Kosta Koufos’s numbers in the eight games DeMarcus Cousins has missed this season. Cousins is questionable Monday, and while Willie Cauley-Stein will likely get all of the attention if Cousins sits, their numbers per 36 minutes are nearly identical and Koufos is much cheaper. Cauley-Stein isn’t a bad play in his own right, especially considering how poorly the Bucks have defended opposing bigs this season.

Nikola Jokic has at least 15 points and 10 rebounds in three of his last four games. Jokic probably isn’t quite as safe as the player he will mostly match up with, Jonas Valanciunas, but Jokic is much cheaper.

The Nets are only marginally better defending the roll man on the pick and roll than the ball handler, and we all know what a devastating finisher Andre Drummond can be. Drummond is averaging 21.5 points, 14.5 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 3.0 steals in two games against the Nets this season.

Ryan Hollins is the only other true center on Memphis’s roster behind Marc Gasol, and he could log heavy minutes if Gasol sits. Hollins is riskier than Kosta Koufos, but he is also cheaper on DraftKings and FantasyFeud. Hollins is averaging 9.1 points, 8.6 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per 36 minutes this season, and the only thing holding him back is uncertainty about just how much he will play.