NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 31, 2016

It’s Sunday and all that we have to look forward to is the crappy Pro Bowl. What a joke. Outside of that we have a nice six-game slate to work with tonight with lots of cheap plays and little in the way of superstars. I am going to cut my daily dose of dribble short today because the truth is I am exhausted and really want to lay down and take a nap.

So with heavy eyes and little in the way of ambition I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

We do not have a lot in the way of superstars today on the slate and the best ones are at the point guard position. This does not happen often. I usually find that you can save at the point guard position by pairing one value play with one superstar and on most days that is the method I employ. Today I am doing the opposite and loading up at the point guard position. Looking at the slate you have to ask yourself this question, “What would I be saving for?”

So the first guy I inserted into my early cash game lineup was Stephen Curry. It seems most days you do not get a chance to take any Warriors where the team is not favored by more than 10 points. Well today they are 10-point favorites facing a decent Knicks team in a game with a high 216.5 expected point total. They fought a battle yesterday versus the Sixers and I honestly think this game is going to be closer than people think. Curry has scored more than 50 fantasy ppg now in six of his last 10 games but has failed to score more than 40 in the last two. This cannot last, you know it, I know it, Curry knows it, and FanDuel knows it judging by his high $11,100 salary on the site. He has the highest upside on the slate at the position and I see no reason to not spend up with little to save for. He is facing a Knicks defense allowing 21.3 ppg and the 18^th most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season and I have him locked and loaded.

Either of the next two guys are the ones I would pair with Curry tonight in cash games. Kemba Walker with most of the Charlotte Hornets banged up is getting a ton of shots. Now you have a banged up Jeremy Lin joining the list of injured and at this time is questionable for tonight. Walker in the last two games has been a bit of a letdown failing to score 30 fantasy points in each. Prior to this he had scored more than 40 fantasy ppg in five of the last eight scoring over 60 and 70 once. Tonight he gets to beat up on a Laker team allowing 24 ppg and the most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. The best part is the Hornets are only four-point favorites which is not something we see often versus the lowly Lakers. Kemba should “Walker” all over them. I am so cheesy sometimes.

If you prefer Damian Lillard over Kemba Walker than I certainly would not blame you. I believe either of the two are the top options to pair with Curry tonight. Portland is seven-point favorites tonight versus the Timberwolves in a game with a nice 208.5 expected point total. Lillard has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in six of his last 10 games going over 50 versus the Nets and 60 versus the Warriors.  The Timberwolves are allowing a generous 23 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season and if I do not use him in my cash game lineup I will in my GPP.

Depending on what goes down later tonight I might move off Curry and use the Walker-Lillard combo. That extra salary could really give you a little boost elsewhere.

If you prefer to not spend up at the one tonight and want to find a  player for a cheap price who has a shot to get you 30 fantasy points than take a look at Marcus Smart. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in three of his last four games while playing nearly 30 minutes per night. Most of the DFS world will load up on Isaiah Thomas trying to get 40 fantasy points for $7,800 on FanDuel while you can “outsmart” the pack by trying for 30 fantasy points for the low price of $5,500 for Smart. The Magic are anything but a mystery allowing 20.5 ppg to point guards on the season. I still prefer to spend up but if you want to be sneaky I think this is the guy.

If you really want to go bargain basement than as per usual lately Archie Goodwin is a decent option. The guard positions are still more than beat up for Phoenix keeping the door open for Goodwin to play major minutes. His production is lackluster to say the least failing to come anywhere close to a fantasy point per minute on most nights but when you play the minutes he is the production eventually adds up. The Mavericks are allowing 20.7 ppg to point guards on the season and if you can get 25 fantasy points out of him than you did OK. Just be aware his minutes the last two games are down a bit which could really hamper his production. So with any cheap point guard understand he comes with risk.

Shooting Guard

The one thing I love about Klay Thompson is even in blowouts he still seems to play plenty of minutes. As a matter of fact he has only played less than 30 minutes three times in the last 10 games and the lowest of them three was 25 versus the Spurs in what was a huge joke of a game. Thompson has scored nearly 90 fantasy points on FanDuel in the last two games combined and has the highest upside on the slate at the shooting guard position. The Knicks are allowing 20.8 ppg to shooting guards on the season and in cash games I see no way you fade him.

You have to gain some exposure to the Knicks versus the Warriors tonight. The expected point total is way too high on a smaller slate to not gain a moderate amount of exposure to it. I would have at least four players from this game in your lineup but would not use more than six. And I have to say six is pushing it.

If Jose Calderon (groin) sits tonight then the player I am on like white on rice is Langston Galloway. Galloway has scored over 30 fantasy points in two of his last three and when all is tallied he is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg over this span. The Warriors are allowing 22.4 ppg to point guards on the season and for $4,500 on FanDuel I will be using him in cash games to gain some cheap exposure with 30 fantasy point upside to that high expected point total. He does a little of everything and that is something I love from a NBA player for DFS purposes.

Lou Williams was battling a respiratory infection but seems to be OK now as he played 35 minutes scoring nearly 30 fantasy points on FanDuel on Friday night versus the Clippers. I always say how much I love “Sweet Lou.” He is one of the most consistent undervalued shooting guards in the NBA. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in nine out of his nine last games. His price remains the same and you basically for the most part can safely count on 25 fantasy point production out of him most evenings. Tonight he faces a Charlotte team allowing 21.6 ppg to shooting guards on the season. I recently received a comment telling me that ppg is useless in the NBA and I should only use fantasy ppg. Here is the flaw with that. Fantasy ppg is calculated combining assists, rebounds, points scored, etc. It also depending on which site you play on can include scoring bonuses. Which does not happen in the NBA last time I checked. Most importantly some players are scoring dependent. Perfect example is Williams and perhaps Andrew Wiggins. These are players whose nights depend on their ability to drop buckets. So why would I not check to see how many ppg a team is allowing to a position when looking at a scoring dependent player? Just saying. Williams is a great play in any format tonight.

This is a play at your own risk play. Jordan McRae with the Suns being so beat up at the guard position signed McRae to a 10-day contract. In his first game back with little for the Suns to choose from he played 25 minutes scoring over 20 fantasy points versus the Knicks Friday night. The matchup is not all that favorable with Dallas allowing the ninth fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season but his price is low and the minutes should be available. Or, he might play seven minutes. Boom or bust.

Keep an eye on the Hornets-Lakers game to see who ends up in the two tonight as that matchup is particularly juicy with Charlotte pretty beat up as well facing a Lakers team allowing the most fantasy ppg to the shooting guard position on the season.

Small Forward

Although Carmelo Anthony has the highest upside on the slate at the small forward position he is banged up and if this becomes a blowout he will come out quick I would assume. Plus, if you read my article you already know I never use him anyway.

My favorite play of the evening is Chandler Parsons. His price remains fair at $6,700 on FanDuel and tonight he faces a Phoenix team allowing 20.9 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season. Parsons has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in six straight going over the 40 mark twice versus the Timberwolves and Rockets.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist played over 30 minutes on Friday night with Charlotte rather depleted scoring over 20 fantasy points versus the Trailblazers. I realize that is not spectacular production and his price is actually rather inflated in my opinion at $5,500 on FanDuel but he is facing the Lakers who are allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to the small forward position while his previous performance was versus a Trailblazers defense allowing the 15^th fewest fantasy ppg to small forwards. I say he is worth a shot.

Staying with the value tonight in the Hornets-Lakers game here is a longshot that is worth a play in large field GPPs. P.J. Hairston is horrible most nights. So bad in fact he has scored less than 10 fantasy ppg in five of his last ten games. Why are you typing this then you ask? Well, he played 34 minutes versus the Knicks on Jan. 23 scoring over 30 fantasy points. Right now he is the projected starter at the two facing a Lakers team allowing 22.9 ppg and the most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. His price is the minimum salary and you better believe if he starts I will have him in my GPP lineup.

As you can see I am all about going cheap today at the small forward position. Of course it makes it much easier when you do not have LeBron James and Kevin Durant to choose from.

T.J. Warren is not playing tonight so P.J. Tucker instantly becomes a great value play. Tucker has scored over 25 fantasy ppg in four straight putting up over 30 versus the Knicks on Friday night. Tonight the matchup is not great with Dallas allowing the 11^th fewest fantasy ppg to small forwards but we know the minutes will be there which is much more than we can say for most players that are only $5,000 on FanDuel. He should be safe enough for cash games.

Tobias Harris has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in eight of his last ten games going over 30 four times. My beloved Celtics are allowing 20.5 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season. All this usually spells a pretty decent night.

Under the radar I love Evan Turner tonight. His price is low at $5,300 for a player who is scoring nearly 30 fantasy points per night right now. He is getting heavy usage off the bench and with most of the DFS world more than likely thinking Jae Crowder I would be thinking Evan Turner. A great GPP play tonight.

Power Forward

Draymond Green is way overdue for a big game. Regardless if that happens or not tonight, Green is still the best power forward available today and with so much value on the slate I see no way you do not play him. He is averaging nearly 40 fantasy ppg and that is enough for me.

Aaron Gordon just played my Celtics on Friday night and put up decent numbers scoring 12 points with nine rebounds for over 25 fantasy points. He gets the same matchup tonight with the Celtics allowing 21.7 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season. His price is only $4,500 on FanDuel and Gordon has scored over 20 fantasy points in four straight games. I like him for both cash and GPP play.

Amir Johnson also has a great matchup tonight. The problem is before you take him his minutes can be inconsistent. He only played 21 minutes versus Orlando on Friday night which led to fantasy owners feeling pretty letdown netting less than 20 fantasy points out of him. As long as he gets the minutes he produces and tonight faces the Magic who allowing 21.4 ppg to power forwards on the season. Due to the Brad Stevens effect Johnson should only be used in GPP play.

Julius Randle is a great cash game play tonight. The rookie has been in beast mode lately with Kobe Bryant and Larry Nance Jr. both missing plenty of time. He has scored over 30 fantasy points now in three of his last five games and tonight faces a Hornets defense allowing 20.7 ppg and the fourth most fantasy ppg on the season. His price is low at $6,000 and if you can get him and Green in your cash game lineup that is the way to go.

Amar’e Stoudemire is starting at center tonight but FanDuel has him at PF for the near minimum salary at $3,900. He’s playing over 20 minutes per game and has scored over 20 fantasy points in two of his last three games. He gets a favorable matchup with Atlanta allowing 21.2 ppg and the fourth most fantasy ppg to centers on the season. All the numbers point to you getting over 20 fantasy points out of him for peanuts. Would I use him in cash? Well, that depends on who it allows me to upgrade to elsewhere.

Center

My favorite cash game play at center tonight is Gorgui Dieng. With Minnesota a little beat up they have Karl-Anthony Towns projected to start at PF tonight and Dieng at center. The Trailblazers are allowing 21.6 ppg and the 21^st most fantasy ppg to centers on the season and Dieng has scored over 60 fantasy points in the last two games combined for the low price of $5,400 on FanDuel.

Maybe I am a sucker but I am going back to the Spencer Hawes well tonight in my GPP lineup. Recency bias will have everyone off of him and the fact that value is in lots of other places besides center should have lookers pass him by. Tonight he gets the Lakers who are allowing 21.8 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to centers on the season. His price is still cheap and if he does not give me 25 fantasy points tonight I will put him on a shelf next to Markieff Morris and leave him be like an Elf on the shelf at Christmas.

If you are going to spend up I really like Nikola Vucevic tonight. Despite his subpar numbers versus the Celtics on Friday night where he scored less than 30 fantasy points he has been lights out. Prior to this he scored over 30 fantasy ppg in six of seven games going over the 40 mark on four of them occasions. The Celtics are allowing the 15^th fewest fantasy ppg on the season and only 19.8 ppg to centers but I believe the second time around changes things. I would still only use him in GPP.

Good luck tonight.