NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 30, 2016

So my wife pointed out so nicely last night at 6:57 p.m. that I currently have no fingernails left. Without realizing it I have chewed them down to nubs. My fingers now look like plump little sausages ready to be pickled and canned. The NBA is stressful. With all this stress I find myself playing less and less on sites that allow late swaps. It just seems more relaxing. At least if my center does not play or my power forward decides he needs a day of rest, all of us who selected that player are dead in the water together.

I have been playing on Yahoo now for some time. I was just edged out the other night in the $5 double-up by a half-point. So upon checking the contest standings it looked like the same 10-to-15 players swiped the whole pot. The reason for this is Yahoo has expanded and started partnering with DFS sites offering bonuses of some sort I am sure. The problem is, I believe they let the sharks in the pond before there was enough fish to feed upon. The contests are still small and they offer no single-entry tournaments or double-ups on the site for NBA. The thing I liked about the site was it was very casual. It had the average guy who wants to spend $20 a day feel to it. Now that is gone. I have withdrawn my bankroll all but $17 and I am playing that out tonight. Win or lose this will be my last night playing on that site until they offer some single-entry options. I have no problem with multi-entry GPP’s. I have a problem with not having the option to avoid them.

So with my anti-Yahoo sentiment out of the way I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

The point guard position is thin for top dogs tonight. The first guy I plugged into my early cash game lineup was John Wall. Otto Porter is a game-time decision with hip troubles and Bradley Beal is still getting back into shape. This should open the door for more shot attempts. Wall has scored more than 40 fantasy points five times in the last 10 games. In his last game versus Houston on Dec. 9 Wall scored 26 points with nine rebounds and 12 assists in 39 minutes. He is the most expensive point guard on the slate and well worth it. I have to point out that Houston runs in the middle-of-the road defensively allowing the 15^th fewest fantasy ppg to point guards on the season.

Big things are happening in New Orleans. We have Anthony Davis questionable as always and Tyreke Evans a GTD as well. Either Jrue Holiday or Norris Cole are fine options tonight on a small slate.

Holiday has been lights out off the bench, scoring almost 100 fantasy points combined in the last two games with Davis out. The Nets are allowing 21.4 ppg and the fourth most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season which is more than favorable. Holiday’s price has risen a bit with his recent production reaching $7,000 on FanDuel, but I find that more than reasonable for a player with 40 fantasy point upside.

If you do not want to spend up for Holiday and want to save a few bucks, the guy I have paired with Wall right now is Norris Cole. He is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg over the last four and benefits from the same great matchup Holiday is afforded. His price is only $4,700 on FanDuel which allows you to save a few bucks to spend up elsewhere which is always nice.

The other cheap player I really like tonight and suspect he will be among the lower-owned players is Donald Sloan. Sloan is the typical matchup-dependent player you take in favorable matchups and for the most part avoid in tougher ones. The Pelicans are allowing 23 ppg to point guards on the season and Sloan has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in six of his last eight games going over the 30 mark versus Portland on Jan. 15. His price is low at $4,400 and if Davis plays tonight I will be swapping out Cole for Sloan.

Outside of Wall and Holiday I feel the next-best cash game play tonight is Mike Conley. The Kings are allowing 22.8 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to point guards and Conley is averaging nearly 30 fantasy ppg. You do not have a ton of upside but you can safely count on Conley for at least 25 fantasy points. He is a fine cash game play but I would avoid in GPP due to his low ceiling. I tried all kinds of ways to pair him with Wall in my cash game lineup but the move forced to me to make downgrades at other positions I feel are critical and I also feel I could get the same production out of Cole or Sloan tonight for $2,000 less.

Shooting Guard

Back-to-back game aside, I have all the intentions in the world of playing James Harden tonight. Fozzy the Beard has been on fire lately scoring over 50 fantasy ppg in five of his last six games scoring both 60 and 70 once. In his last back-to-back game scenario Harden scored 58 and 62.2 points on FanDuel playing a ton of minutes. The Wizards are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season and I will only say this, “Get Fozzy with it, or get left behind.”

I really like the Washington Wizards tonight. I also like to play a little riskier in cash games on small slates. With the huge 218.5 expected point total tonight I plan on going full steam on this game. With Beal playing limited minutes and Porter banged up Garrett Temple is all but jumping up and down yelling at me to use him tonight. The Rockets are allowing 21.9 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and Temple has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in six of his last 10 games scoring over 30 fantasy points twice. He plays plenty of minutes and you cannot ask for a better matchup for the low price of $4,600 on FanDuel. Just keep in mind he is prone to stinkers and I have won three nights straight with law of probability being a real pain in the ass.

If you fade Harden or want to go safer at shooting guard then the guy to pair with Harden tonight would be Monta Ellis. Not only does the Pacers-Nuggets game have a high 208.5 expected point total, but in the last 10 games Ellis has scored over 25 fantasy ppg eight times going over the 30 mark four times hitting the 50 mark once. The Nuggets are allowing a ton of points to shooting guards on the season at 21.4 ppg and allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg as well. Ellis has a fairly steep price tag if you plan on using some other big guns tonight but well worth the money.

If you really want to go bargain basement tonight you could take a flyer on Wayne Ellington. Before you think I am crazy and stop reading my articles you have to understand that you would be taking a stab at 20 fantasy points here. His price is only $3,700 on FanDuel. If you get 20 fantasy points tonight out of Ellington then you got over 5X value. The Pelicans are allowing 22.3 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season and Ellington has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in two of his last three games. Could be a bargain, could be a bust. The choice is yours.

Small Forward

Amazing how things change from night to night. Well, last night I was all about spending at the small forward position tonight I see no need. We have little to choose from and the superstars could have better matchups.

Trevor Ariza gets my nod for the top play at small forward tonight. You literally cannot ask for a better matchup with Washington allowing 22.6 ppg (most in NBA) and the most fantasy ppg on the season to small forwards. Ariza has had a decent run as of late scoring over 30 fantasy ppg in three of his last four. The best part is in this recent run he has also eclipsed the 40 fantasy point mark twice. Great matchup and decent upside drives Ariza all the way home in my eyes. If by some chance they move him to power forward tonight and insert Corey Brewer at SF then of course Brewer is instant value and I fade Ariza.

Having John Wall and James Harden in your lineup forces you to find value somewhere. You know what the rule of thumb is on value plays you need to get 5X value or higher. Alonzo Gee since getting the starting nod has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in four straight. The Nets are allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to small forwards and Gee has a bargain price tag of $4,100 on FanDuel. You will not get huge upside here but in cash games if you get can get 20 fantasy points you got your 5X value.

Paul George is the only guy I would pay up for at the small forward position tonight and even then I plan on only using him in my GPP lineup. He has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in three of his last five but in the two games he failed he put up horrible stinkers where he scored less than 20 fantasy points. Recency bias will have most people off of him with a lack of trust and the matchup isn’t particularly great with Denver allowing the 14^th fewest fantasy ppg and a low 17.6 ppg to small forwards on the season. All this is horrible which is why he is a great GPP play. Right?

The other guy I love in GPP play tonight is Kawhi Leonard. What a horrible game to target for DFS. You got two of the top three defenses playing each other which always spells fantasy disaster. Here is what intrigues me. The last time Leonard faced Cleveland he had a double-double scoring 20 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, two steals, and a block for 41.5 fantasy points on FanDuel. He will be low owned and if he can do it again you will strike fantasy gold here tonight and have a late bullet as well.

Power Forward

I will admit it. I like saying Nene Hilario. I find it amusing. I also find his recent production quite amusing. He has played over 25 minutes now in four straight games averaging over 20 fantasy ppg in the span. The Rockets are allowing 23.4 ppg (highest in NBA) and the most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season and Nene should make you laugh all the way to the bank. He is after all “Hilarious.”

The other Washington option at power forward tonight is Jared Dudley. Although sharing time with Hilario he manages to play around 25 minutes per game sometimes getting to around 35. He is more than capable of giving you six fantasy points if he is ice cold but he has scored over 20 fantasy points in five of his last ten games. I find him riskier than Hilario making him better for GPP. A super sneaky play could be to run both of them together. Just a thought. 

Outside of Mike Conley I am not huge tonight on many Memphis players (sorry Kaplan). Courtney Lee is a waste of a good matchup. You have to throw a dart at the small forward position and hope to land on who gets the minutes, and I find Marc Gasol overpriced most nights which is why you rarely see him in my articles. Even the guy I am about to talk about I find as unpredictable as my wife when she drinks hard liquor.

Zach Randolph tonight is in the right spot. The Kings are allowing the second most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season and Randolph has that big game capability. His problem is outside of scoring and a few rebounds we have little else to look forward to. I find this risky. If he comes out and cannot hit the broadside of a barn he will be a dud. He has, however, had two double-doubles in the last 10 games scoring over 30 fantasy points three times including one 40-point performance. The bad thing…he has four games in the last 10 where he failed to score 20 fantasy points.

Myles Turner continues to impress and is worth a look at. He has scored over 20 fantasy points in six straight games hitting 40 twice and 30 once. Even off the bench he is a threat and tonight gets a great matchup facing a Denver team allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to both the power forward position and center. I would not be surprised as we approach game time if he sneaks in again as a starter.

If Anthony Davis sits, then of course Ryan Anderson is the top play tonight at the power forward position. He had a huge night versus the Kings in his last game scoring over 50 fantasy points and now has scored over 30 fantasy points in three straight. The Nets are allowing the 11^th fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards but also are allowing a healthy 20.8 ppg as well. I have no problem fading him if Davis plays and I will not play Davis regardless. But if Davis sits I will make arrangements to fit him into my cash game lineup.

Center

It seems every night now center is the same. Either you pay up for DeMarcus Cousins or go with some really cheap guy who is putting up decent fantasy numbers. Nowadays it seems the GPP play is to play any of the other centers. You think I am lying? Check the ownerships in your cash games tonight.

What you just read above was from my last article. Why? Because it is the truth. The question now is to “Boogie” or not to “Boogie?"

Well, once again I am going to use DeMarcus Cousins in cash games. I feel the risk is far too great in fading him. Especially on a small slate without a ton of superstars to pay up for. On FanDuel where they still have him as center he is the guy I built my lineup around making a nice solid core. I will have Boogie, John Wall, and James Harden all present tonight.

In seven of Cousins' last 10 games he has scored over 50 fantasy points hitting 60 three times with one of them eclipsing the elite 70 mark. His price is high but with value everywhere on this small slate he should be easy to fit in. The Grizzlies are allowing the 11^th fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards and a low 18.3 ppg but when the music starts, the gold chains come out, and hairy chests are abound the Boogie is in full effect. I realize I am a weirdo.

The only other center I am using tonight once again is Ian Mahinmi. He is averaging 25 fantasy ppg in the two games since returning from injury and tonight faces a Nuggets team allowing 20.9 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to centers on the season. His price is low at $5,000 for a player who can get you 30 fantasy points. On FanDuel I like Cousins and on other sites where Cousins is in the four I like Mahinmi paired with Cousins.

Good luck tonight!