NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 29, 2016

It just so happens I have wound up playing largely stars-and-scrubs lineups this week, and that trend continues Friday. The scrubs may not be quite as cheap as they were earlier in the week, but they are cheap enough to allow you to get a couple super-expensive players in your lineup, and I think you will probably need a couple of those guys in your lineups.

Point Guard

There pretty much isn’t any middle class at point guard Friday. Injuries and poor matchups pretty much necessitate that you have to spend big or save as much as possible for other positions.

With Devin Harris out the last two games, J.J. Barea has averaged 16.0 points, 3.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists. Barea is almost a must-start if Harris is out again.

If Harris does play, I will probably replace Barea with Deron Williams. Williams is facing his former team for the first time, and for someone who has given inconsistent effort over the last several years, effort should not be a question Friday.

One of the reasons I want to play Barea and, to a lesser extent, Williams, is to save money I can spend on Chris Paul or Russell Westbrook. The Lakers and Rockets have allowed the third and fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards, and I’m expecting big games from both. Of the two I slightly prefer Westbrook, but Paul is much easier to budget, especially if you are looking to play another stud in the same lineup.

I don’t know that anyone will ever feel great about playing Donald Sloan, but if Devin Harris plays, Sloan is the best cheap point guard available. Sloan is averaging 9.6 points, 4.2 rebounds and 5.0 assists over his last five games, and only four teams have allowed more fantasy points to opposing point guards than the Mavericks.

Shooting Guard

One of the few rules I have in DFS is “look for cheap shooting guards who are actually playing point guard.” There are two players on Friday’s slate who could fit the bill, and I could very well play both in several of my DFS lineups. Archie Goodwin continues to log heavy minutes with Brandon Knight out, and while his price has risen, it still doesn’t match his production.  In four games with Knight out, Goodwin has averaged 34.25 fantasy points on DraftKings. Devin Booker is a solid value as well, averaging 14.3 points, 3.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists over the last week.

Langston Galloway started at point guard with Jose Calderon out Friday, and he now has at least 12 points and 31 minutes in each of the last two games. Galloway’s teammate Arron Afflalo is the only scorer left if Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis are out, and while he may miss a lot of shots, like he did Tuesday, he should play heavy minutes and score plenty of points.

Last, but never least, James Harden averaged 30.3 points, 8.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists against the Thunder last season. He had 37, five and 3 in his only game against Oklahoma City this season, and he has three triple-doubles in his last five games.

Zach LaVine falls somewhere between Langston Galloway and the other shooting guards mentioned above, both in terms of price and performance. LaVine has more upside than Galloway, but is riskier than Afflalo, Booker and Goodwin. LaVine played at least 29 minutes in each of the last two games with Kevin Martin out, and that should continue. Expecting LaVine to score 20 points again may be unrealistic, but he certainly could, and at the very least he is a GPP consideration.

Small Forward

Nicolas Batum is returning to Portland for the first time since he was traded away, and while I am hesitant to put too much stock in “revenge games,” I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a bit more energy against his former team. Batum had a season-high 33 points against Portland back in November. Batum hasn’t shot the ball well in January, which I attribute to being in and out of the lineup, but I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, especially in tournament lineups.

Lance Thomas has played well in relief of Carmelo Anthony, and while he probably won’t score 20 points, at least you know he will get you something. Thomas will likely be in all of my cash game lineups if Carmelo cannot suit up.

The only thing keeping Trevor Ariza’s price down is a dud against the Spurs Wednesday, but I am willing to overlook that. Ariza started at power forward again and played the second-most minutes of any Rocket. Ariza is still averaging 21.8 points per game over his last four games. Ariza costs as much as Nicolas Batum on FantasyFeud but he is a bargain on FanDuel and DraftKings, where he is much cheaper.

Kevin Durant has been just as good as Russell Westbrook over their last six games, he is cheaper and he has a slightly better matchup. No team has allowed as many fantasy points to opposing small forwards as the Rockets, and Durant has scored at least 24 points in seven consecutive games.

Power Forward

No team has allowed as many fantasy points to opposing power forwards as the Bucks, and now they have to contend with Chris Bosh. Bosh had 23 points against the Bucks 10 days ago, and that was with Hassan Whiteside in the lineup. Bosh has averaged 23.7 points and 6.3 rebounds with Whiteside out the last three games, and he would be the top power forward play of the night if Whiteside is out again.

Jabari Parker is averaging 10.4 points and 6.4 rebounds over his last five games, and he could see a few more minutes if John Henson is unavailable Friday. Parker would likely benefit if Hassan Whiteside is out, as well.

While Parker is a fine play, I would love to pay up a bit more for Julius Randle. Randle is averaging 11.8 points and 10.8 rebounds in 29.4 minutes over his last five games, and there is no reason to expect those numbers to go down anytime soon.

Derrick Williams could see increased minutes if Kristaps Porzingis is out, but it is more important for his fantasy value if Carmelo Anthony sits. Williams struggled from the field Thursday, which wasn’t a huge surprise, but he still took 12 shots. In fact, Williams has taken at least 12 shots in four of his last five games, scoring at least 18 points in three of those. Williams is a bit pricy on DraftKings, but his value is too good to pass up on FanDuel.

Center

I’m giving Salah Mejri a pass for his poor game against the Warriors, and in the two games before that he averaged 9.5 points and 7.5 rebounds. If Zaza Pachulia is out again, Mejri is a solid play against a Brooklyn team allowing the 24^th-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.

No team has allowed as many rebounds, or as many fantasy points to opposing centers, as the Lakers. DeAndre Jordan is a virtual lock for 15 rebounds, the only question is if he can get 15 points as well. I think he probably can.

The Celtics are only marginally better than the Lakers against opposing bigs, allowing the fourth-most opponent’s rebounds in the NBA. Nikola Vucevic has six consecutive double-doubles and is averaging 2.5 blocks over that span. He is a great alternative for anyone fading DeAndre Jordan.

The roll man on the pick and roll has an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 54.4 percent against the Cavaliers, and I expect Andre Drummond will be quite effective in those situations Friday. Drummond had 25 points, 18 rebounds and three steals in his only meeting with Cleveland this season, and that kind of upside is hard to come by, and he is a very nice value on FantasyFeud.