NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 25, 2016

I find Monday’s slate extremely interesting. There is a nice combination of value plays and strength at the top, and for the most part it is spread evenly across positions. That being said, I found a surprising number of centers I like, and I expect to fill the flex spots in most of my lineups with centers. As always, check Fantasy Alarm for the latest injury news, as there are a couple of game-time decisions that could greatly impact fantasy value.

Point Guard

Emmanuel Mudiay has averaged 29.75 fantasy points on DraftKings with Jameer Nelson out. He remains a solid value and a safe cash game play.

Three of Rajon Rondo’s six triple-doubles have come in the four games Rudy Gay has missed. It is also worth noting Rondo had 20 assists in Sacramento’s only meeting with Charlotte this season. If Gay is out again, Rondo is a great play, especially for cash games.

The Kings have allowed the most opponent’s points, third-most steals and sixth-most assists this season. Kemba Walker’s fantasy value will take a hit if Nicolas Batum and Jeremy Lamb return Monday, but the matchup is good enough to make Walker worth playing anyway, especially on DraftKings. Jeremy Lin, on the other hand, is only playable if Batum and Lamb are out, and perhaps not even then. I was all over Lin on Friday, when he scored just seven points, but he followed that up with 26 points, five rebounds and five assists Saturday. I expect him to finish somewhere between those extremes Monday, but he is probably best-suited to tournament lineups given his inconsistent play.

The New Orleans Pelicans may be the most frustrating team for fantasy this season, and not just because I drafted Anthony Davis in both of my season-long leagues. Even in a good matchup like this one, hosting a Houston team on a back-to-back, it is hard to trust anyone. Cole is averaging 29 minutes with Eric Gordon out, and while he doesn’t have the upside of Jrue Holiday or Tyreke Evans, he is safer and cheaper than those guys. Cole is your best bet if you are looking to go cheap at point guard for a cash game.

Shooting Guard

Tyler Johnson was pretty disappointing Friday, but he still played 33 minutes. As long as his minutes are up and his price is low, he is worth playing for DFS. Johnson is averaging 10.4 points, 4.0 rebounds and 3.2 assists in 34.4 minutes over his last five games. If Beno Udrih is out, Johnson should easily top 30 minutes again.

Victor Oladipo is averaging 15.8 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists as a starter this season, and he could face a soft matchup if Tony Allen is out. Courtney Lee and Mario Chalmers are fine shooting guards, but neither is known for his defense.

With Eric Gordon out the last two games, Tyreke Evans had 10 points and six assists Saturday and 22 points and 10 assists Thursday. I suspect Evans will take advantage of the matchup with Houston Monday, but I don’t feel great about it.

Only the Kings have allowed more fantasy points to opposing shooting guards, and Avery Bradley has at least 14 points in four consecutive games. I bet he makes it five in a row Monday, and his price remains pretty reasonable.

Small Forward

Justise Winslow is averaging nine points, seven rebounds and four assists in his last two games. Even with his heavy minutes he doesn’t have the upside to be a tournament play, but he is pretty safe at a low price.

Kawhi Leonard has scored at least 17 points in each of the six games he has played without Tim Duncan this season, and overall he is averaging 21.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.2 steals per game with Duncan out. Leonard is a safe cash game play, but he may not have the necessary upside for tournament lineups.

It will be extremely interesting to see how long Houston’s experiment with Trevor Ariza at power forward lasts, but there is no denying it has paid huge dividends. In the last two games Ariza has averaged 24 points, four rebounds, two assists and 5.5 threes in 38 minutes. If Ariza comes anywhere close to matching that production Monday, he will be a great value.

If for some reason you are fading Ariza, or you want a second mid-priced small forward, Omri Casspi is a solid cash game play. Casspi has averaged 33 minutes over the last two games with Rudy Gay out, and Casspi is worth playing if Gay is out again, especially on FanDuel.

Power Forward

I usually have a pretty easy time finding power forwards, but that isn’t the case Monday. I think you probably have to pay up at power forward, especially on DraftKings, where DeMarcus Cousins is listed at power forward. Even so, Chris Bosh is my top power forward play of the day.

Despite the way they punked the Cavaliers Saturday, the Bulls remain pretty terrible against opposing bigs, especially on the glass. Chris Bosh had 26 points and seven rebounds with Hassan Whiteside out Friday, but Bosh should be a nice play even if Whiteside is active.

The Rockets weren’t especially ferocious defensively even before Dwight Howard went down and they shifted Trevor Ariza to power forward. This should be the game Anthony Davis gets back to double-digit rebounds while still scoring 20-plus points.

There is some risk the Wizards will go back to playing small with Otto Porter Jr. returning, but Nene Hilario is averaging 12 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.0 steals over the last week. The Celtics have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards, and Nene’s price remains low for such a solid player.

Center

The toughest decision of the day could be at center, especially on FanDuel, where you can only play one. It might be best to simply fill that spot in last, since there are so many I like. Of course, if you absolutely have to play somebody like DeMarcus Cousins of Hassan Whiteside, I have no problem with that.

Since I know I will be asked, I’m going to address Boban Marjanovic right now. He only played 22 minutes with Tim Duncan out Thursday, and I’m not sure he will be able to stay on the court even that long if Golden State goes small. His price is low enough that I don’t have a huge issue if you play him, but I think we can do better.

With that in mind, Nikola Pekovic is expected to see increased minutes with Kevin Garnett out Monday. Garnett is only averaging 14.6 minutes this season to 14.4 for Pekovic, so we aren’t talking 35 minutes here, but Pekovic is a proven scorer who should be well worth his price if he even gets to 25 minutes per game.  I like Pekovic’s teammate Karl-Anthony Towns as well, because he has at least 14 points and eight rebounds in each of his last four games and he scored 22 points in his only matchup with the Cavaliers. Of the two I think I would rather go cheap with Pekovic, but Towns should be worth it if you can afford him.

The Bulls have allowed the second-most rebounds and sixth-most blocks to opponents this season. If Hassan Whiteside is active, he should be in a lot of lineups. In fact, I could see playing Whiteside and Bosh together in cash games.

Nikola Jokic had 17 points, five rebounds, three assists, two steals and three blocks in 32 minutes Saturday with Kenneth Faried out. If Faried cannot play Monday, Jokic is a good bet for double-digit points and production across the board.

DeMarcus Cousins is the most expensive player on every site Monday, and for good reason. Both of his 40-point games have come with Rudy Gay out, and overall Cousins is averaging 35.3 points, 13.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.5 blocks with Gay out.

Spencer Hawes is playing heavy minutes with Cody Zeller out, and his fantasy price has not yet caught up. Hawes has averaged 31 minutes over his last three games, and while his shooting remains inconsistent, he has pulled in 10 rebounds in each of his last two games. Hawes could easily get hot and knock down a few threes, making him a nice, cheap tournament play.